Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Bollingers have got to come in

IMO, no lasting top possible here until the 2SD Bollinger Bands on the dailies come in quite a ways.

Eeek -- the lower BB for UVXY now has a 15-handle, although this one, too, ought to come in a little.  Careful with this one -- she's a man-eater!

Re the 11/20 "major" Bradley turn, please note that the FOMC minutes go out just the day before, and that that Thursday is a huge data-dump day.  Oh, Bradleys are voodoo?  Yeah, probably, but the last one was a direct hit -- October 16th.

SPX 11-10
VIX 11-10

22 comments:

Fetal Position said...

Speaking of voodoo.

http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

Christian Gustafson said...

Thanks, FP. I added the CNN link on the right sidebar, underneath Bicycle's chart site.

Fetal Position said...

UVXY getting some traction?

T.Berry said...

kinda boring mkt today. almost feels if any sort of good news we could lift off rather fast and shoot through 2050 heading to 2100. may be on verge of a very big up day soon.
again, congrats nailing 2040 cg. now lets get on 2050!
gl to all!

Christian Gustafson said...

Well I hope 2050 holds.

I pulled my last market longs on Halloween, shorted the following week, covered, and have been happy spectating since.

From here I'd like to see a choppy ending-diagonal into that 11/20 period, with the proposed high on SPX and a TON of news/data.

And it would help if all the Bollingers have pulled back in to help us out.

T.Berry said...

if 2050 holds cg, do you see 2100 happening?

history looks to be on bulls side next year???... from october to october in that third year (of a presidency), the market has risen 17 of 17 times since World War II gaining an average of 17.5% . pretty amazing. that would put dow well over 20k and the naz at new ath's too.

Phat Repat said...

So, which will it be? Bond yields collapse or USD collapse?

This guy thinks bond yields. Hmmm...

Depriv said...

Interesting.

I cannot see the point in the numbering (a-b-c-d-e) on your chart. Letters belongs to corrective patterns, so the 'a' should be on the end of the first retrace.

Anyway: as it looks on the monthly/weekly charts, it's more likely that we are still in the bullish phase and this retrace from 2xxx to 18xx was a middle-tf 4 or (less likely) a bigger tf 4/a. I think we have one more bigger tf 4-5 left.

Yeah, maybe it'll stay within this scary megaphone-like monster.

Fetal Position said...

Anyone have any good bear porn? I'm about to thrown in the towel, and plunk down some big bucks to ride the mechanical bull.

Christian Gustafson said...

You want a line in the sand, Fetal?

OK, so I've been pining for the SPX Bollingers to come in and give us something to push against. And they may.

There is also the possibility that we go up to meet them. This would involve throwing over the obvious (now) megaphone on the indexes and going up to the 2080 level SPX. There is a larger trendline up there that may be a target for this as well, I dunno.

I've been waiting through the last week or so, mostly interested in the 11/20 Bradley turn setup for next week, and the landmines of news scattered around it.

Breaking out above the megaphone here would bring Yet Another wave of short capitulation, and maybe drag the VIX and vol ETFs down to their final lows -- at their lower Bollingers.

If the Bradley is a bust and the trendline up at 2080 blows out, then we'll have to zoom out some more on the chart, cut a calf, and make our next leap of faith as to chart techicals and where the next turn lives up here.

Phat Repat said...

Whew, and the band played on...

So, since I couldn't bring myself to enter on the long side alone, I will play both sides for the Dec expiration and let's see what happens. At the appropriate time, I will go long/short the futures, as needed. ;-)

Long projections on the system are now clustering around a mind boggling 2157.

Christian Gustafson said...

The long entry was at 2001 SPX, about where I exited my last shorts.

There was simply no way to know whether we would reverse off the top of the megaphone or continue north. It's still slippery.

We haven't had a hard reaction yet off the megaphone top, so this could set up the overthrow and a last cleansing of the shorts.

We could still also head sideways along the megaphone top for a few days. I'm happy to watch this one play out into next week.

Phat Repat said...

Hey, that's pretty good CG; way to talk the market down! ;-)

Christian Gustafson said...

Zee market was just reminding us that it cares about this megaphone after all, at least for now.

Sideways for a couple of days ... Bollingers ... news .. FOMC minutes ... Bradley voodoo etc etc

Have a pot of coffee and a good book handy if this drags down to a complete trickle of volume.

Fetal Position said...

Thanks for talking some sense into me. I sold some longs in my 401K on Halloween, and feel pretty good about that for now.

Christian Gustafson said...

It's probably a good time to start thinking about how a JPY crisis could play out, what this would mean for equities.

IIRC, Hussman argued the opposite, that the JPY slide would reverse very very hard.

Phat Repat said...

Will Janet save the day?

Does a bear...

From that piece CG, cash will be king, for a brief moment in time. Then, and especially if the West responds in kind, welcome to Weimar US-style. ;-)

In that piece, based on JPY current tie to gold, it would be possible to see gold at $900? I'm not that lucky, am I?

T.Berry said...

liking that 2157 phat. tho likely not till early part '15

Phat Repat said...

T.Berry
Yeah, kinda looking that way.

Though I'm prepared for either direction. ;-)

On that note, quite the cluster at the close around 2151.98.

Some flags are coming up, however, and Friday may be key for resolution (notwithstanding OpEx).

Buy/Stop 2053.41/2029.09
Sell/Stop 2019.82/2044.10

T.Berry said...
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T.Berry said...
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Phat Repat said...

Good plan T.Berry; thanks for sharing. I like those numbers. Always good to see other perspectives.

Since my system is mechanical, I only use projections as a rule of thumb. My key indicators are derived from the options/futures themselves.

As to QE, I believe that has had an effect and there is still some overhang from that. But, it is what it is, I trade the numbers up or down, and take my gains/losses as the magic box dictates. ;-)

Good trading to you.