Thursday, May 1, 2014

Fall 2014 crash scenario

I want to sketch this out and post it now in order to avoid the rush.  No guts no glory, ladies!

It combines a number of irresponsible, entirely speculative ideas:

1. We are still completing an ending-diagonal, a terminal pattern, that began at the SPX 1646 lows.

2. Upon completion of the E-D, the first natural target is to retrace the entire thing, returning to 1646, very possibly with lows into the 7/16 Bradley turn date, chopping through some chart supports along the way, for "a" down.

3. The 9/17 FOMC is situated right at the 50% retrace of this drop, and a kissback to a critical bull trendline up from the 2011 lows.

4. The Fed will raise short-term rates at the 9/17 FOMC, either to follow market short-term rates, or to shore up the ailing $USD (it has been selling off with the market, very bad!).

5. We crash, with "c" down a rough 2.618x multiple of "a", reaching the projection of "a" on or around the 11/20 Bradley turn.  This date also corresponds to the spike lows of the scary days of 2008.

6. This will complete a larger "A" wave down.  At ~880 pts on the SPX, this is only 30 handles off from the entire 2008 crash cycle.  An even deeper dive to SPX 1010 would actually equal the entire 2008 crash.

7. The market will stabilize for a few months for "B" up, probably retracing to test the 200 DMA from underneath.

8. "C" down begins in 2015, reaching the trendline of the 2002-2009 lows, in the neighborhood of SPX 560.  It will be a 5-wave impulse.

9. A crisis and collapse in U.S. Treasurys and the $USD will follow the completion of the "C" wave down.

10. This will complete the historical period of the 20th Century and usher in a new, uncertain, and very dangerous phase of History.

For now, let's just show the structure of the proposed "A" leg down and Fall crash.  Lots of notes on the chart.  Have a nice day!

SPX "A" down Fall 2014 market crash scenario

2 comments:

Bicycle said...

Grantham is out calling for 2250 SPX as the top by 2016...

Christian Gustafson said...

Excellent!

Maybe he can write me some index puts.