Friday, April 4, 2014

October 11, 2007?

A proportional selloff today would have us get down around 1853, with a bounce back to 1880 early next week.

Good luck to all bears ...

9 comments:

Bicycle said...

One of my indicators just broke a multi-year trend southward. Could be the start of a multi-month dip here.

Christian Gustafson said...

If today is THE day, sir, I have us at SPX 1450 by the July 15th Bradley turn. Yay.

Bicycle said...

I expect massive resistance around ~1550. We have to break through low 1800's first, but if we do, ~1550 is where I would expect a bounce to 2200's. Incidentally, the longer this drags on through 2015, we can hit 2300.

We'll see 750 during the next bear for sure, perhaps 420, and in the most bearish case, 210.

We may however just bounce extremely hard around ~1850, and if we do, we're going straight to 2200.

Christian Gustafson said...

Today's sell-off finishes Monday morning -- 5th waves are powered by margin calls.

Then we test 1880 as resistance.

Bryan Franco said...

Yes. On board for a monday morning dip... and rip. Would love to add to shorts once next rip loses steam. Keep in mind, we also dont have my pesky 3-5% correction issue anymore, and i love that.

Permabear Doomster said...

october 2007, a provoking thought...but no.

If I had to stick a date on it, we're spring 1998.

Even if we drop 15/20% this year...up we go again, not least if interest rates are raised (if only a little).

Christian Gustafson said...

My crappy "stretched 2008 tape" model was looking for an initial low of 1854.11 this morning for i of 1 of a. We got 1854.26, neat.

Now it would have us retrace back to 1880.60 -- tomorrow early would be great -- and SPX 1770 by April opex.

Will watch it carefully for both price and time targets.

Bicycle said...

down goes 1850

1550 potentially on deck

then a hyper ramp to 2250

Permabear Doomster said...

down goes 1850

1550 potentially on deck

then a hyper ramp to 2250
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Not sure if you meant it, but it invokes boxing imagery.

A giant bull, on steroids....Mr Bear..bites....DOWN goes bull....crowd go wild.
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I do agree entirely..the low 1600s/1500s seem viable.

The issue I have...and it should deeply concern the bears...what if we then hyper ramp?
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It would be the most horrible thing if the bears do well on a down wave, only to stay short..and get ground down whilst the market ramps for another 12-18mths.
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Good wishes for rest of April.