To my understanding, Bryan, there are 4 basic possibilities on the table now:
1. Higher high ahead, perhaps SPX 1870 (my count).
2. Top is in, dive to 1770 was a "wave 1". In correction now.
3. The drop to 1770 was actually "A" down of a much larger and scarier correction.
4. None of the above! E-W is subjective hocus-pocus and a complete waste of time.
I think this about exhausts it. Like I said above, the 1810 area may present an important hurdle for the S-T bullish case, lest a head-and-shoulders top play out here.
1810 for sure CG. The annoying "rule" that I've posted on end about would certainly allow for this... a move down to the low 1700s from 1810, and then STILL make a new all time high later. However, the rule would not allow for anything greater than 20% outright before a new all-time high.
6 comments:
nice GC. I'm along for that ride to 1870 then letting half go and waiting for 1629 in march to reload
The crucial moment will be when we get back to 1810 SPX.
1810 is both a 50% retrace of the recent decline AND a potential right shoulder for a nasty-bad decline.
We either get that decline, or the H&S setup fails, and short-covering helps us up to new highs.
It may be a tense moment in the market.
... and an outside-ish day like today works too.. onward to 1870 in progress i guess!
To my understanding, Bryan, there are 4 basic possibilities on the table now:
1. Higher high ahead, perhaps SPX 1870 (my count).
2. Top is in, dive to 1770 was a "wave 1". In correction now.
3. The drop to 1770 was actually "A" down of a much larger and scarier correction.
4. None of the above! E-W is subjective hocus-pocus and a complete waste of time.
I think this about exhausts it. Like I said above, the 1810 area may present an important hurdle for the S-T bullish case, lest a head-and-shoulders top play out here.
1810 for sure CG. The annoying "rule" that I've posted on end about would certainly allow for this... a move down to the low 1700s from 1810, and then STILL make a new all time high later. However, the rule would not allow for anything greater than 20% outright before a new all-time high.
looking forward to dumping half this week or next @ CG's 1870.
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