Thursday, January 30, 2014

Charts 01-30: Onward to 1870

One more leg north to the .236 fib extension, W1 ~ W5 similarity, etc at SPX 1870?

There is a long weekend and Full Moon over Presidents' Day in February, which could allow for an interesting developments abroad.

SPX 01-30 a.m.

SPX 01-30 6M

Sunday, January 26, 2014

Charts 01-24

Dropped the ending-diagonal idea and went with a traditional 5-wave series for the leg up from the August lows (SPX 1627).  This may at last be the "one last fakeout" drop before the final high that reader Bryan for which has been patiently waiting.

Looking for a bottom on Tuesday around 1768, and a final rally over the next two weeks to 1870.  I've been thinking about long-term charts lately, and maybe I'll actually have something interesting to post later this week.

SPX 01-24

SPX 01-24 6M

Wednesday, January 22, 2014

Charts 01-22 a.m.: Idle speculation

I wonder if we are finishing up a surprise tight little ending-diagonal 5th here. 

An intraday reversal at SPX 1852 would be an interesting thing.  The .382 retrace from 1852 back to 666 is 1398, which would be my target for "A" down this spring -- retracing all of the 2013 rally in about 6 months.

BIG data day tomorrow.  Be careful out there!

SPX 01-22 a.m.

Thursday, January 16, 2014

Books: Nietzsche im Haus

It's Thursday night and I'm waiting for an ending-diagonal to finish up, probably next week, in the 1868 SPX area.  VIX and volatility ETFs like UVXY are expected to make new lows -- heck, UVXY announced a 4:1 reverse split today.

Let's see if I have anything interesting on the shelves to pass the time.  Friedrich Nietzsche is interesting.  In fact, he's a heavy favorite around here.  Leaving aside the usual books, Modern Library eds and paperbacks, here are the unusual volumes I have from Nietzsche.

Let's start with The Will to Power, tr. Ludovici, T. N. Foulis, London, 1910, 2 vols:

The Will to Power, 1910 ed.

Ain't she a beauty?  This is #1470 in a series of 1500.  When I first found this set many years ago at the Bookman's Alley shop in Evanston, IL, the pages had not been cut properly, so I painstakingly separated them with a razor blade.  Then I read it all.

They are from the Oscar Levy complete works of Nietzsche, but printed in London, and not by Macmillan.

The Will to Power

Here is a Macmillan edition of The Future of Our Educational Institutions, tr. Kennedy, Macmillan, New York, 1911, from the Oscar Levy works:

The Future of Our Educational Institutions, 1911 ed.

I can't remember where I found this one, The Dawn of Day, tr. Volz, Macmillan, New York, 1903.  She's such a beautiful volume.

The Dawn of Day, 1903 ed.

This book had been part of a collection at Ft. Sheridan Library, but it has minimal markings, primarily this plate on the inside cover.

The Dawn of Day, 1903 ed.

Finally, here is a hardcover 1st ed of Walter Kaufmann's modern translations of The Portable Nietzsche for the Viking Portable Library, New York, 1954.

The Portable Nietzsche, 1954 ed.

Good luck over the long weekend; let's see if we can get a proper reversal next week as the ending-diagonal finishes up.

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Charts 01-14: Waiting for the wedge to complete

I'm just annoyed at this point for not buying Monday's low.  Waiting for new lows in VIX and completion of the large bearish wedge here into next Thursday's massive financial data day.



Monday, January 13, 2014

Charts 01-13: Turnaround Tuesday

January 1 was a "major" Bradley turn, but it does not look like it marked a longer-term top.  The tape since the 1849 high is simply not impulsive, so I have re-labelled it a W4.

Sure, today's tape was impulsive -- this is the "C" wave of 4, like this.  Looking for more weakness early in the session tomorrow before finding support on the descending trendline from "A" of 4.  SPX 1808 would be great.

SPX 01-13

The target for W5 is SPX 1875 by next Thursday, January 23, a very big financial news day.  That would also be a 1.618 fib extension of the presumed wave 4 decline from 1849 to 1808 tomorrow.

SPX 01-13 6M

The weekly SPX chart shows the upper Bollinger up there as a near-miss target.  In 2007, the tape missed the top Bollinger by 4 handles.

SPX 01-13 6M Weekly

Thursday, January 9, 2014

Charts 01-09: Count wrapping up?

Tomorrow looks like a good opportunity for a key reversal day.  The NFP data in the morning could rally the market initially, until a new high or important level is hit, followed by a selloff on high volume.

The McClellan oscillator had a small change today, suggesting a large move is coming in the indexes in the next couple of days.

SPX 01-09

Sunday, January 5, 2014

No bigger loser than the Karl Denninger

for the Karl Denninger

So ... after months of the Karl Denninger's sanctimonious boasts that he was going Galt and shutting down the TickerForum, that he could no longer stand to feed Leviathan with his productive work, after the total disaster and public humiliation of his calls and advice on BBRY, after the endless fawning tributes from his sycophants, as if each week heading into the end of 2013 was a new station of the Cross for this hero, after banning every last interesting participant on the ol' TickerForum, after all this foolishness:

I choose instead of either active participation through funding of our government's BS or violence to peacefully withdraw my consent.  To refuse to labor.  To make do with less -- a lot less.  I choose to reduce my voluntary contribution to the tax hoard that is misspent or forms the foundation against which our government borrows, giving the proceeds to those who think that doping it up is a grand past-time or shoveling guns, missiles and money to terrorists while groping our grannies, using the very existence of the terrorists we gave the guns and missiles to as justification for what any civilized society would call sexual assault. 
The portion of that which I earn by my efforts that I am able to retain in real terms shrinks by the day, and I have concluded that the balance of benefits and harms, especially the harms done to others using my tax dollars, is no longer acceptable to me.

After all this ... both the Market Ticker and TickerForum are still up, pretty much as before.  It looks like he dropped the inline ads (or they dropped him!  LOL), but that's about it.

What.  An.  Asshole.  What an absolute asshole.

And how can Karl possibly write this kind of crap:

In fact, you're a damned sheep, as you've been warned -- repeatedly -- that this was exactly what you were going to get by myself and others since 2009, and further, you were also given a political path forward to stop this crap and tear down the monopoly pricing schemes and scams that led to this situation over the last 30 years, all of which came about due to the very use of government force you endorsed to ram this crap up all of our butts
But you believed Obama would "help you." 
Obama and the Democrats had an intention to "help" all right -- help themselves to all your money and leave you without medical care because despite paying into their scam you don't have money to cover the deductible! 
You didn't want to listen to people like myself, who were warning you for the last four years that you were about to get bent over the table and screwed blind to within an inch of your life.  We were called names, including being told we were "racists" and "teabaggers", reviled and dismissed. 
The media wouldn't interview us, you wouldn't take us seriously and guess what -- we were right. 
Now, all you Obama lovers who literally knelt before Zod -- eat your damned peas and quit bitching because you got exactly what you not only asked for, you demanded.


What a joke, what an embarrassment, what a complete piece of garbage you are, Karl Denninger.

Charts 01-03: Big week ahead

This weekend the Burke Museum had their annual Archaeology Day; the girls and I were 2nd in the door for this one.  They had a guy demonstrating how to make clovis points and other stone tools out of obsidian, which can be found in our Cascades volcanoes.

Creating stone tools with ... stone tools

We got some pho and hit our usual bookstore, Magus Books, good shop.

Out before sunrise for a long walk on a chilly Sunday morning, here are some boats in the Shilshole Bay Marina.  The tide was high, and the Puget Sound water was very clear.

Shilshole Bay Marina

A statue of Leif Ericson stands guard over the boats.

Leif Ericson

This apartment block is almost finished in Ballard.  It's funny that they had to wrap it around this shitty gas station.  The only good thing that can be said for it is that it appears to use real plywood instead of the usual chipboard garbage.

Market St & 24th Ave

One block north, they have just got the hole in for this beauty.  I'm sure it's needed, yes, of course.

Moar apartments now, moar!

The Olympics were out in the crisp air.

Olympic mountains over Olympic Manor 

It looks like a set of townhouses are replacing the old Crown Hill Lutheran Church on 15th Ave.

Moar townhouses!

Here's the old church last year before it was demolished.

Crown Hill Lutheran Church, R.I.P.

This week is important in the markets because we still do not know if the January 1 Bradley turn date did indeed mark a top and a turn, much less the top.  We need some follow-up and confirmation.  We need some carnage on the indexes before op-ex, to get us down in the 1720s on the SPX before a big bounce.

SPX 01-03

It's still very early, but we need some big red candles soon.

Wednesday, January 1, 2014

Charts 01-01: New Moon tonight

As long as it was correct, I just left the last post up and let it ride.  We did indeed bottom at the FOMC and rally to my target into the EOY.

My E-W count looks complete, into a Bradley turn date and New Moon (top).  We closed with a touch right on the ending-diagonal top trendline I had drawn:


If we get our market turn here, then the task for 2014 is to chop down through the 2013 rally tape.  In all of the federal debt reflation rally since 2009, we did not get above 1500 SPX until just last year.

A return of the bear market would undo 2013 by June, then set up a healthy bounce into summer.


I'm using a stretched-out version of the 2008 tape for now, until it either proves useful or useless.  It's a beautiful example of an A-B-C crash pattern, and I hope we see something close to it again.  The 3 of C wave actually bounces at SPX 666, some pretty neat geometry in this one.


And here's the full Jaws of Death since 2000, which will be followed by a USD currency crisis and collapse into hyperinflation.


Edit: bonus chart ... EUR-JPY ... hmmm ...