Monday, January 13, 2014

Charts 01-13: Turnaround Tuesday

January 1 was a "major" Bradley turn, but it does not look like it marked a longer-term top.  The tape since the 1849 high is simply not impulsive, so I have re-labelled it a W4.

Sure, today's tape was impulsive -- this is the "C" wave of 4, like this.  Looking for more weakness early in the session tomorrow before finding support on the descending trendline from "A" of 4.  SPX 1808 would be great.

SPX 01-13

The target for W5 is SPX 1875 by next Thursday, January 23, a very big financial news day.  That would also be a 1.618 fib extension of the presumed wave 4 decline from 1849 to 1808 tomorrow.

SPX 01-13 6M

The weekly SPX chart shows the upper Bollinger up there as a near-miss target.  In 2007, the tape missed the top Bollinger by 4 handles.

SPX 01-13 6M Weekly


Christian Gustafson said...

No new low today -- yesterday completed the retrace? VIX and UVXY deaths are telling us something here.

No new low means that we didn't get low enough to call the retrace a "4". For now, counting everything in 2014 as "b of 5".

This leaves "c of 5" to go. If it's .618 the length of "a" (1768 -> 1849), then it targets 1865 for next Thursday.

Ending diagonal ... subwaves are triplets, right?

T.Berry said...

LOL Sure CG, sure.

Christian Gustafson said...

Well, got the up right. Just missed an actual entry off a new low which never came this morning. Gah.

I am wondering if Daneric will chart this as his usual "1-2, 1-2" count tonight.

T.Berry said...

CG, think we have a shot @ 1900 over the next few weeks as earnings come out? gm just announced first divy in 6 yrs....huge rally in a/h....i think we're going to see a better than expected tone this q...

Christian Gustafson said...

I dunno re the 1900. I've charted out scenarios like that lately, where we get up there by late March, been playing around with different counts and zooming out a bit.

First we have to get through this bearish E-D wedge thingy we've been building since the 1627 low in August. We would have to morph or smash it in some way so it becomes something other than a dire terminal pattern.

McHugh has a phi mate turn coming up soon, and I want to see if it terminates this wedge and sends us south. IMO we would then retrace it entirely by March 10.

If that is the top, then we build a larger 5-wave "A" into June, before a summer rally.

My dream scenario for this summer is buying a passel of index calls, setting some stops, and disappearing into the WA bush for a few weeks.

So, no 1900 until this wedge is busted. The tape this week is threatening to setup an inverse head & shoulders with an upper target of 1871 SPX next week.

T.Berry said...

Thanks CG. Been long so I think I'll stay on that side for a while. Are you looking for taking down 2k at some point later in the year?

Christian Gustafson said...

No. I'm taking McHugh's Jaws of Death as my cue, which will be satisfied long before SPX reaches that level.