Thursday, September 26, 2013

Charts 09-26

Another wiggle in the interminable wave 4 today, but things still line up nicely for a top in a couple of weeks.  Channel and count adjusted accordingly.

It would be nice to gap up and out of here, up into the 1700s, in the morning, and leave this wave behind us.

SPX 09-26

12 comments:

Christian Gustafson said...

Wave 4 still on.

But.

There is a real possibility of putting in that long-awaited blow-off top from here.

The upper edge of the short-term channel now meshes with all kinds of trendlines and targets up around SPX 1774. No, really.

If there is a debt-ceiling deal, this is entirely possible, that we may reach it by the Bradley turn, October 8th.

A move like this will destroy any remaining bears. Margin calls for everyone.

Permabear Doomster said...

Well, the move <1691 is a problem. Could still break lower to 1680/75.

Regardless, I still gunning for at least 1750/75 in October.

The problem is...why would it stop? I don't see anyone out there asking that simple question.

We're up 60% since the Oct'2011 low...why won't be go up another 60^ to sp'2400 by autumn 2015?

Bryan Franco said...

CG- Question about the length of time that the proposed Wave 4 has taken up.. do you have any hard rules on how long it can be relative to proposed Wave 2? Thanks. Bryan

Christian Gustafson said...

It's still OK, at roughly half the time of W3 and still in the .382 area for the retrace. Just hanging here waiting on the news, is all.

SPX 1774 comes up as a target if the entire move since 1560 is a zig-zag with A ~ C.

The math:
1627 + (1709 - 1560) = 1774

Now it just so happens that 1774 around the 10/8 Bradley and October New Moon intersects with a bunch of other trendlines coming up from the depths.

So ... a debt deal for Monday can gap the /ES up 20 handles and give us the blow-off top needed to wrap up the rally since 2009. The setup is certainly there for it now.

The specifics of the deal don't matter in the least. Anyone who thinks politics matters at all at this point does not understand the enormity and gravity of our situation.

Christian Gustafson said...

Hehe ... SPX 1776?

math is hard

Permabear Doomster said...

Hmm

I suppose there is one bearish scenario..and it has been there all year..where this big wave up completes..in the 1750/75 zone...

The many I follow..consensus would be for a drop of 20% across 'some months', before another up wave.
--

oh well, tis the weekend, although I never do switch off from this.

Christian Gustafson said...

Yeah, a .236 drop to the 1340-50 area, with a B wave back towards 1600, and a final epic crash in a year.

ABC, just like the 2008 cycle.

Permabear Doomster said...

Sounds great...

Yet, didn't the last two waves remind everyone of just how strong this market is?

You know me, and my obsession with hitting the lower weekly bollinger.

BEFORE the 2011 summer collapse wave, market hit that wave...before a bounce..and then the main wave.

The recent pull backs simply haven't done that.
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I can only imagine the bearish hysteria, if the market opens Dow -125/150 on Monday morning.
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Sorry, wish I could be on the bearish train right now..especially now that its autumn, but .. I can't, at least not yet.

Christian Gustafson said...

PD -

Google finance shows the weekly mid-Bollinger at 1660. Imagine a wave of bearishness takes us down there on Monday. Bears pile on with puts and shorts into a terrible trap.

A deal in Congress probably gaps us back up at least that much on Tuesday.

What is interesting about 1660 to me is that is where I have the target for my first wave 1 off a blow-off top here, based on the expanded (stretched) tape from 2008. So 1660 would form the neckline for a H&S and the next leg down.

It would also make for excellent symmetry for a top on the Three Peaks and a Domed House model.

Permabear Doomster said...

Okay, again, those are VERY valid ideas..but...

what if Dow 17000 Nov/December?

What then?

Are you still going to be keep suggesting downside 'at some point'?

Armstrong - whom I will keep touting, and unquestionably deem one of the worlds leading commentators out there, he is open to a massive hyper-ramp across the next two years..even as high as dow 40k or so.

Two years ago people were deemed 'crazy' for suggesting sp'1500s.

Now its deemed crazy for sp'2000..or higher.
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I'm just VERY concerned something new is underway here, and that majority simply don't get it.

Christian Gustafson said...

I want to see what happens after we finally touch the other side of this epic channel up from 666.

IMO, Armstrong is a crank, and his economic confidence model is absolutely useless.

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