I'm counting the move as wave 1 of C of 4, with an important condition. We really can't have a wave 3 off of this that extends. A minimal 1.618x of the 77 handles gives us a 125pt move; even with a retrace this would break us down through 1500 and possibly much lower. From the other E-W analyses I have seen, 1500 is looked on as a line in the sand for the top being in.
The remaining waves in C of 4 would need to get bottled up within the current channel or one not too steeply skewed off of it. Final target for C would be 1510 if it is 1.618x A, but 1530 would be great, too.
|SPX 06-23 1Y - showing push to 1751 Sept FOMC|
Which brings us back to Three Peaks and a Domed House. If we have one rally left in us, why that would take us to point 23 on the model. The "expanded" 2008 tape I have been playing with then does a pretty good job of modeling the price targets (dunno yet about time) on the way down. It even includes a bounce at SPX 666 (3 of C), before reaching a final low at SPX 570 in early 2015.
|SPX Three Peaks and a Domed House|
Chris Martenson podcast interview tonight -- "Neil Howe: The Fourth Turning Has Arrived". I'll listen to it on my walk to work in the morning.