Wednesday, June 19, 2013

Charts 06-19

/ES futures are 4 points off their lows; we'll see if they can recover the rest of their losses overnight here.  The thing to remember here is that if we are indeed in a wave 4, correcting a W3 that ran from the November lows to May 22, then we have plenty of time for this to do what a wave 4 does, which is dick around and waste everyone's money and patience.  It's not necessarily in a huge rush to finish up here.

Until we break the B-wave up-channel on the SPX, I'm not convinced that it's complete, or that another count (like a May 22 final-top-top-top count) is underway.

Holding here and heading higher would draw a sort of mirror-image of the (c) of A path on the way down from the May highs.

SPX 06-19

My 7 year-old is reading so well now, that she does better reading alone than with me.  I miss our book time together, so we decided that a good fix for this is that I would read some of her books, staying a book or two ahead, and that we would discuss them later.

So I'm off to finish The Wind in The Willows.


treider_ said...

any possibility the top is in?

Bryan Franco said...

I will chime in here and say it is very unlikely that the top top is in on a closing price basis. On an intraday basis, it could be in. If that is the case, then we probably have either a very deep wave 2 retrace or wave 5 failure to begin around late july. I think both of those could end by mid October, so time-wise, i am with CG. In the case that we make a new intraday high, we will probably exceed 1700 in a full wave 5. In any case, my work on the series of declines that we have seen makes it very likely we get a new closing high. Two days ago we came within 1% of a closing high... i almost wish they would have just checked that box off because it would have made may's high an eligible top, by my work.

Bryan Franco said...

Said another way, my work strongly suggests that may's closing high will ultimately be taken out before any 20% + decline ensues. I have no opinion as to whether the intraday high will be exceeded. This is all based on the fact that we now have 3 consecutive 3%+ declines using closing prices in the s&p , two of which made new closing highs. We need one more closing high now for an eligible top.