Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Charts 05-14: Can we do 1703?

Hehe, I was busy all day at work, and just noticed some comments posted today.  I had a couple of short positions, for a couple of reasons, but I pulled them both once we broke above 1641 and held it.  A passel of SPY puts got dinged, but the UVXY held and was taken out with a protective stop.

Besides the larger channel here, I shorted because Monday, 5/13, was a McHugh phi mate turn.  This may be the 2nd dud of these this year, which is too bad.  He had an amazing track record with the phi mates in 2012, mostly nailing the spike lows.

At this point, I don't see any reason why we don't pause for a couple of days before blowing off all the way to SPX 1703 by the end of May.  This would be an "extended" 5th wave, due to the fact that the W3 (if 1651 holds for now) did not extend the W1 from April 18 by 1.618x or more.

A move like this would probably complete McHugh's "Jaws of Death" to his satisfaction, although we'll see what he says if/when we get there.

May 30th would be the ideal place for 1703 for me, because it would line up my tape with most of the FOMC meetings for the rest of 2013.  Those may be our real "turn dates" going forward.

The sight of a permabear like me looking for stoopid new highs probably means you can short with confidence now ... sigh.  But it's what I'm getting from this last channel and a strict wave count.

SPX 05-14

See how SPX 1703 touches the far wall of a much larger channel, for the whole of the rally itself?



Permabear Doomster said...

As his highness would say..

'yes we can'.

Sp'1700s look a given..probably in early June.

I am still holding the Trans 7000s though - as Oscar Carboni is also seeking.

Trans 7200s is sp'1800s...but even then, if QE is still continuing, the best case downside is 5-7%..which is just no good.

Christian Gustafson said...

Today changed the shape of how we get there, but I'm sticking with that target, SPX 1703 about May 30.

What happens after we touch the far side of that massive insane channel?

I dunno, but I'll short it.

PD -- when do the trannies overtake the industrials? July?