Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Charts 02-26: Flip a coin

The upcoming McHugh phi mate turn date could still go either way.  Or there's always the third option, that "turn dates" are chart voodoo, not to be taken seriously.

I drew plausible scenarios for both, the turn as a top or as a bottom:

SPX 02-26 - speculation on the phi mate turn date

Overnight /ES isn't giving us any clues just yet.

This is only fun for me because I'm flat, waiting for the turn date to get a sense of where we are headed next.

4 comments:

Alex Red said...

The 3/1 turn date. Is it exact as in expect a high or low on 3/1, or can it be plus or minus a few days?

thank you

Christian Gustafson said...

Yeah, phi mates are a +- day or two thing.

The last one was 12/31, how about that? Dr. McHugh calculated it and announced it several months in advance.

In 2008, I believe, McHugh phi mate turn dates bracketed the waterfall phase of the crash.

I could see this finish up into the close on Thursday, declining with all of the data released before the open on Friday.

See the count up from 1485?

13 pts to 1498, wave 1
21+ pts from ~1495 to 1517 today, a wave 3 of 1.618x magnitude

This sets us up for a very proportional move into the 1525 area tomorrow or Friday.

Then it's up to the Big Bearish Wedge to PUSH BACK ... REALLY HARD.

Sandor said...

Christian,

Are you convinced of S&P crash because of EW theory, or because of your study of the credit market? Or both?

The central banks don't want a market clearing price for bad debt. They want to to engineer the 'beautiful deleveraging' by debasing the currency 2% a year. Bernanke is now talking about exiting through 'run-off', which means 30 years on the long end, kind of like the Japanese strategy. The question I ask every bear is -- what is going to cause the markets to lose confidence that the Fed/ECB/IMF mafia can control the beast? That's the only way we crash here.

Permabear Doomster said...

Hmm..

so sp'1515...

Green'5 fail <1525 ?

--
Target remains 1480, but thats going to be difficult in just two trading days.