Unfortunately, the decline today was strong enough to suggest that it will continue a few more days. The McClellan is in bottom territory, but we're in the middle of the wider channel now and still have room to go lower.
It's more likely that we continue lower for a few more days than that we bottom right now and shoot north for a top into Friday. The 3/1 phi mate is most likely a bottom. Ironically, the drop today makes a higher high more likely now!
If that's the case, then we can look at the moves since the November low and make better sense of them. First, let's propose that W1 ended at 1423, giving us an 80 pt wave, followed by an unusual W2. Now we can see that W3 extends W1 by a multiple of 1.618x.
If we can bottom Friday with a spike low to 1474, an 80 pt W5 gets us to 1554 by mid-March, very close to the 2000 high. SPX 1554 adds a few more questions, but we can worry about them if we get there.
I think the top callers are still early ...