Friday, October 5, 2012

Charts 10-05: Not over yet

Looks like an ending-diagonal triangle to finish this up.  A 5th wave to the midpoint of the larger channel at 1485 will work here.

1485 also gives us a wave 5 of 55 points, which is similar to its corresponding wave 1 which ran from 1325 to 1380.  The first wave (i) off the 1485 top will bounce off the lower channel line, which is 1460 next Friday.

ending-diagonal triangle 5th wave

Listening to the classic 24-minute "Tube Bar" prank call recording tonight.  I once played the entire thing on the public airwaves on a radio show I had on WHPK FM, at about 2:00 in the morning.  Not a peep from the FCC.

Next week we'll check in on the weekly SPX Bollingers, watch for an extreme low candle on the VIX, and look for other interesting divergences.


sooner said...

You had a radio show?

christiangustafson said...

Yeah, a long time ago, in college, over the summer.

I got to play records from a vast collection, read PSAs over the air, take phone calls, and snag free station passes for all the rock shows on the North Side (of Chicago).

One guy called in during the playing of the "Tube Bar". He was awestruck by it and wanted to know what in the hell it was. Of course, it inspired a whole realm of pranking and punking in the culture, including the bit where Bart Simpson would call Moe's Tavern.

Re the chart, I believe that if we top this week, sentiment will sour as the concern for the "fiscal cliff" and other worries start piling on. We then target SPX 1262 and the completion of the 3PDH by December FOMC.

December FOMC is post-election, it results in a big push from the Fed (surprise), and a strong bounce in the markets. A .618 retrace from 1262 is right at the 1400 level. With the news such as it is, bears will be going nuts watching us rally.

The market then rolls over in late Jan/early Feb, when we approach or hit the debt ceiling, heading straight to the 1040 level.

It all looks great on the chart, but I will wait until we finish up at 1485 here before posting it.