Thursday, October 4, 2012

Charts 10-04: Capitulation day?

So, can we actually make it up to 1480 tomorrow?

We completed wave (iii) right out of the gate this morning, and spent the rest of the time sideways in (iv), which we completed into the close.  Wave (iii) is longer than (i) (the move from 1439.03), but not by a ratio of 1.618x or more.  So we look for wave (v) to extend, possibly taking the entire day to complete.  Those SPY 147 calls were already a triple or better today (up from 7 cents), and could do well again.

That would be one of those crazy capitulation days, where we drift upwards.  VIX might fall below 13,  and we could see a shocking new lows on leveraged ETFs like UVXY.  There are people still trapped in this pig at a pre-split $21, a seemingly cheap level at one time, and they may see it again (ouch).

A close tomorrow at 1480 would be truly beautiful, especially if it's followed by a 30-handle drop to support on Monday.

Good luck out there!

SPX 10-04
25-day, with proposed path to 1400 support

3 comments:

Rajeev Shah said...

Wave 1 = wave 5 at 1470. Is it done and won't extend. Apple is very weak.

christiangustafson said...

Hmm, actually, Rajeev, wave 5 might not need to extend.

We may have finished (iii) and (iv) just today, for a 24pt W3.

That would be ~1.6 the length of wave (i) which ran from 1439 to 1454 (15 points).

A 15pt wave (v), tacked on to 1465, gives us ... 1480.

3 hours left until close, let's see what's left in the tank here.

christiangustafson said...

Yeah. Oh boy.

This could be done, with a failed 5th @1471. Looks like I will need to pick up some more on the way home, to help with analysis.