THANK YOU, THANK YOU, PRESIDENT TRUMP!!

It will not take much at all to implode the ponzi Chinese shadow banking system, and every lie that rides upon it.

Thank you, my POTUS.  You have done well today.

Expecting a FFR cut in September -- not in June.  The lack of a June rate cut from the Fed will actually crash equities back to the 2007 highs (1560s SPX).

But the FOMC will come around in September when the very long-term channel is threatened, with the S&P 500 under 1370.

S&P 500 daily

GOOD LUCK TO ALL BEARS.

The real question for equity bears is when the Fed will cut, not hike, rates

The Fed has promised hawkish policy and a series of aggressive rate hikes in 2017, presumably to counteract the inflationary fiscal policy from the Trump Administration.  Never mind that the larger project to dismantle globalism is profoundly and probably permanently deflationary.

We can expect one rate hike at the very least, as well as the very most.  This would be the third hike since December 2015, and arguably the one to tip the precarious balance in the equity markets.  Let's suppose the Fed members take a pass at the next meeting, in a few weeks, agreeing to wait to see what policy initiatives Trump and the GOP Congress can muster.

Let's suppose we see our next hike at the larger FOMC meeting in March.  There's your spark.  Never mind what was said in December -- that's it, we're one and done for 2017.

We're off to the races.  Solid support is at 1620 on the S&P by about mid-June.

SPX 2Y

Equity bears that are still among the living today should be asking when the Fed will next cut rates, i.e. when the members will see the face of raging deflation, the oncoming recession, panic, and reverse course.  I propose that we see this as soon as the June FOMC meeting, a desperate effort to restore confidence, animal spirits, inflationary expectations, credit expansion, earnings multiples, home equity loans, social media start-ups, 10-year auto loans, good vibrations, the works.

We'll get one hell of a surprise, and an epic bounce in equities, that's for sure.  Almost to a .618 retrace.

After that, we can look forward to the 10Y Treasury yield making its final lows at 1% or even below.  Rates have not broken out of the Volcker bond-bull channel just yet.

10Y Treasury since Nixon

Short-term, we're looking to tag the 2300 level next week, before a pull-back into mid-February.

SPX 20D

But it will be the rate cut, not the rate hike, that marks the end of the epic reflation rally and a prelude to a fall market crash that will humble 2008.  That's when the Fed shows how desperate and powerless it is at the end of the long-credit cycle.

Best. Week. Ever.

We welcome the new Age of Trump as he takes his rightful place as Emperor of All Mankind.  It will be a true golden age, ripe at last for shorting bloated equities into the dirt and taking profits in a wheelbarrow.

At last, the era of Trump deflation is at hand!

The RUT, SPX, NDX, DJIA are gyrating in different directions as we register the instability building as a confirmed "Hindenburg Omen".  At last we have the setup for a final all-time high on the S&P 500, with plausible areas of support and resistance all the way down.  There are some sweet trades ahead, folks.

SPX daily 1Y

For now, if you voted Trump/Pence this week, even if your vote was wasted because you live among Bolsheviks, pat yourself on the back and enjoy, enjoy the delicious misery of the Left.

Schadenfreude is a beautiful thing.

In 10 weeks Trump will be Lord and Master of the Free World!

The World-Historical Mission of Donald J. Trump

And it's all over ... Donald J. Trump has been elected the 45th President of these United States of America.  Thankfully, the sharp personal contrasts during the campaign spared us from technocratic debates about plans and policy, with the CBO weighing in occasionally to vet the numbers of one "plan" or another.

Because narrow policy does not matter.  At the end of the Long Credit Cycle, policy is nothing.  Soon enough we will be at the mercy of the forces of wild nature in the bond markets, the lifeblood of our abstracted civil society.

The deflationary spiral is a feature, not a bug.  Our money came to us ex nihilo, and back there it shall go, as debt-defaults mount and Irving Fisher's nightmare is realized.  The strategy to prop up asset values until growth and animal spirits return is a terrible failure.  Now we have to face the consequences of the even greater malinvestment of capital than before, and the experience will be brutal.

The object, the great task, the World-Historical Mission of Donald J. Trump is to keep the United States whole, to maintain its order and integrity as we pass through the great crisis of Kondratieff winter on the credit cycle.  Debts that cannot be paid -- won't be paid -- and that includes perks like Social Security, defined-benefit plans, pensions, your bank account.  They are all dust, as we will learn soon enough.  Guess what -- Donald already understands this, he knows we are dead broke.

Trump is in Abraham Lincoln's shoes now; his job is to preserve the Union, to reassert the Republic, and to enable us to survive as a nation.  Debt-deflation will trigger a monetary collapse and final implosion of the fiat $USD, causing widespread disorder and the destruction of many of our institutions.

Browse the S&P 500 for a moment.  How many of these debt-burdened companies will survive such an event?  How about you?  How will you manage?  What are your plans?

Specialization and the division of labor are an easy bet that works out well most of the time.  But when things go sideways, you're left hanging as a cog in the Great Machine.  There is no nice way to unwind modernity -- see James Howard Kunstler's novels for an idea of what that might be like.

There is another system after the 20th Century experiment in debt-backed money, maybe even an older, more honest and real one that we left behind.  We may get there, if we are lucky, after the current system collapses.  Donald Trump's sacred duty is to shepherd us through this coming Time of Troubles, to keep our once great nation intact, whole, and secure as it passes from empire.

Close to a waterfall ...

Blow.  It.  UP!

SPX Trump Crash!

The Crash of 2016

OK, I think I finally sorted it all out.

Once Hillary is on the ropes, the Fed will be clear to drop the bomb and hike rates.  That, plus a Trump election landslide, will send everyone to the exits faster than ever imagined.

SPX the Crash of 2016

Charts 8/18: Updated count, idle speculations

A Trump victory will of course crash the equity markets, you know.

Everyone hits the exits all at once in a furious liquidation panic.

SPX long-term support @ 800