A proposed "Bryan scenario"

Loyal reader and secret doomer Bryan chimes in with a concern about calling another top just yet.

I agree with gold. Separately, our last sequence of 3-5 and 5% plus corrections is one of those that requires another 3% plus correction that does not exceed 20% followed by a new closing high. Can we draw such a scenario?

OK.  Hmm.  I see.  Aw hell.

Bryan has brought this up before.  In the long-term history of important tops, there is always a sequence of new highs and lows just before the final top.  In his analysis, we still need another trick drop before "the pop" here.

What to do?

And I still would like to see a terminal pattern.  And still make use of the turn dates and broader structure of at least the larger (green-numbered) 3PDH.

So let us propose a megaphone, a classic broadening top.  In Bulkowski we trust.  The big 10/9 turn window then pencils out as a top for us, at about SPX 2026.  And we still get our touch of the 200 DMA, just before September FOMC.

Congratulations, Bryan, on following a blog with traffic so comically low that you can still get custom chartwork done for you on a Sunday afternoon.

SPX 08-31 1Y Bryan megaphone(?) scenario

The Goodwills I visited this morning were positively barren, I tell you, stripped and looted of anything of value.  I won't even bother with the big one in Rainer Valley again.

Hey, Bryan

My friend Randy and I were kicking around the idea of topping into the December 18 FOMC, presumably on a real policy shift announcement at the Fed.  So I took the current wedgy-thing we are forming and stretched it out for two more waves -- a 4th wave that retraces us a standard .382, and a 5th wave back up to the wedge trendline at ~1844 on 12/18.

Here's what I came up with (just a quick sketch over lunch at work):

SPX E-D into December FOMC

This looks pretty good as an ending-diagonal formation, but it also fulfills your requirement for a minimum-3% headfake pullback before putting in a final top.

I'll work some more on this tonight.