I agree with gold. Separately, our last sequence of 3-5 and 5% plus corrections is one of those that requires another 3% plus correction that does not exceed 20% followed by a new closing high. Can we draw such a scenario?
OK. Hmm. I see. Aw hell.
Bryan has brought this up before. In the long-term history of important tops, there is always a sequence of new highs and lows just before the final top. In his analysis, we still need another trick drop before "the pop" here.
What to do?
And I still would like to see a terminal pattern. And still make use of the turn dates and broader structure of at least the larger (green-numbered) 3PDH.
So let us propose a megaphone, a classic broadening top. In Bulkowski we trust. The big 10/9 turn window then pencils out as a top for us, at about SPX 2026. And we still get our touch of the 200 DMA, just before September FOMC.
Congratulations, Bryan, on following a blog with traffic so comically low that you can still get custom chartwork done for you on a Sunday afternoon.
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| SPX 08-31 1Y Bryan megaphone(?) scenario |
The Goodwills I visited this morning were positively barren, I tell you, stripped and looted of anything of value. I won't even bother with the big one in Rainer Valley again.
4 comments:
Thanks CG ... my wife and and 8 month old love that I spend my Labor Day weekend doing this sort of thing. But here in Ann Arbor, we don't really have the options you do to enjoy the great outdoors. So I just annotate my charts and build models. The life.
Your proximity to the Sandusky, OH, makes up for a lot, though.
I like the megaphone here. Broadening tops are found at significant turning points. McClellan may have rolled over off its top, I have to see what McHugh has to say for his short-term outlook in his newsletter. IIRC, some of his indicators looked a little stretched up here.
If it is a megaphone top, than the "E" leg up should be fun.
Indeed! ... and where E up ends, the long-term E down begins for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
re: a blog with traffic so comically low
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All of the finance sites are down.
Hell, CNBC has lost 65% of its viewership since the crash lows of 2009.
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I don't know how the giant Zerohedge is doing, but I'd guess it is 30/40% down this year.
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Ironically, one sign of a key turn will be when traffic stats go exponential...even the Cramer will be getting more than 2k viewers a day.
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