I think we can reach 2594 this week as the panic wave 3 plays out.
But first, this post needs a soundtrack:
The large gap down tonight is the target for the eventual wave 2, running through the week after opex. It also tags an important kissback of a trendline from the 1810 low. These channel re-tests are very important in my work going forward, massive, deadly-serious turning points.
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| S&P 500 hourly |
But the Fed will leave the balance-sheet reduction schedule in place. That, and/or scary recessionary macro numbers will hit hard in January.
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| SPX daily |
The first real Fed policy changes arrive at the March, 2019, meeting, when the S&P 500 is back at 1040. Everyone wants out. Real estate is already DEAD, especially after this week. Any suckers left out there, want to buy a house? Didn't think so.
Equities bottom later in the year around 525, trendline support from the 2002 and 2008 lows. The Fed will return to the well one more time with fresh QE and balance-sheet expansion.
This next wave of Fed desperation stimulus begins the decline and final fall of the $USD.
50 comments:
Hey you mooks. The Seattle Antiquarian Book Fair is this weekend.
I'm going Saturday.
I would love to get a nice house on the cheap, when they finally come back down to earth.
SOX is looking ugly!
Who's the stunt devil in the GIF? WTF kind of safety net is that!?
SMH holding the neckline of a H&S top at 96ish is the key IMHO. So far so good for the bulls, though bum squeaker into the close today. NAZ is about to enjoy/suffer a very quick 400 point move. So either NAZ 6900 by Monday, or 7800/7900. Only a thousand NAZ point difference....
Techs are flat now ,but I'm hoping for a panic plummet across the board this afternoon. If so, I'm going long for a bounce. Sticking with my call for 2730-2760 short term support range - although the further down today, the better.
By the way, CG, the book fair looks fantastic. I'm jealous. Wish it wasn't 2,700 miles away from my home here in Georgia.
Jeff, last year I had a bookseller from Portland willing to give me a PAPER INVOICE for ~$220 of fine analog books I was taking off his hands. He didn't even ask for ID or get my name.
I quickly ran outside to the ATM and settled my debt. But can you imagine a more high-trust environment than this? I'm looking for a nice copy of Bertram Thomas's Arabia Felix this weekend. But who knows what may turn up. There's so much amazing stuff at this show, books that would put my marriage in jeopardy.
I'm good with either 2594 or 2553 as the final low for this mess next week. McHugh thinks 2600 area. I can make either target work in my system; one just has wider swings. Both end up at 1991 Brexit lows support in early December.
Here we go.
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$BPSPX
For better or worse, I'm all in long, removing hedges at the close and holding QLD/TNA/SVXY for a quick trade back near the SP 2900 area, where I expect to go all in short for the meat of this flash crash pattern.
I'm all in long at the close. SPX, QQQ, etc are all completely outside the lower Bollinger Bands - I've never seen that. (CG, the collection of signed Ray Bradbury books at the fair is pretty incredible. I'm on the lookout for early editions of Richard Wilbur and W. H. Auden.)
Speaking of never seeing something before. Yeah, I would say we've bottomed.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$TRIN
"too many knife catchers" Perhaps. That's pretty serious selling though.
"too many knife catchers" here, sure, if you call two people a lot. TV ain't talking bullish, nor NAAIM. And tis just a trade, based on past flash crashes similar to this week. Looking for an up Dow 1000 day, then I will be going all in short. If tomorrow ends bad then I will likely step aside in case of a black Monday repeat over the weekend. QQQ already reversed today's red ink in after hours trading, though a lot to go through before we get to the open tomorrow, including the reaction to JPM earnings. Reaction to news tells a lot regarding money wanting in or wanting out. Tomorrow is likely to be a big tell as to how this crash phase wants to unfold.
jpm officially launches q2 earnings with, surprise, a nice beat. stock is only 8% from all time record highs in pre-m. c & wfc follow up with better than expected and are both up in pre-m as well. rising rates are bullish
'tis the earnings season officially. game on
pay no attention to the finnies lol
so ... 6% mini-crash today?
If we don't get some buyers quick.
Hugh -
there are no real buyers
there are only games
technical levels, support and resistance
if ~2785 /ES is our new OR, we are about to crash here, today, and we will retest this level 2 weeks from now
No more death penalty in WA? What's going on up there CG?
There hasn't really been one in a de facto sense when they let Gary Ridgeway get life in prison in exchange for identifying the final locations of a number of his victims.
If you can't execute a monster like that, your entire baseline is rekt.
Again, I must remind readers that my grandmother served on the murder jury for none other than John Wayne Gacy back in the Illinois.
Feeding and housing these creatures is a sure sign of a sick society. They need to be eliminated.
Caldero goes full bear.
Martin on the Dow for this week.
He sees 2 scenarios, all dependent on what happens today:
1) Dow trades down today, yet holds last weeks lows, then will enjoy a rally into end of this week.
2) Dow trades up today, above Friday's high, then will suffer a sell-off into end of this week.
Martin sees overseas buyers pulling back on fears over the US election, which is evident by pullback in Dow since start of October. Indeed, he terms it: it's the election, stupid.
My own target to exit longs and enter shorts are Dow 26,000, SP >2850, QQQ >179. Trend turned negative last week, so want to sell rallies till trend turns positive again. I'm agnostic on the bull v bear dilemma, just riding the trends till the markets prove themselves. Either way, should be big up and down moves that offer potential to profit for those willing to ride the swings.
Tom DeMark was looking for a late October peak. See video:
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=bloomberg+Tom+Demark&&view=detail&mid=F8DF4C6B32764B84E773F8DF4C6B32764B84E773&&FORM=VRDGAR
Scenario 3 -- S&P sells off to close @ 2594 on Tuesday. Someone says something nice overnight.
Then market rally to the 2803 old channel resistance about 10/26.
"I would go short at Dow 23K."
August 4, 2017 at 7:27 AM
that one left a mark lol.
the dow jones hasn't been below 23,000 since.
I'm looking to bail on a couple of recent positions in the next week or so. How high are we headed, before the next leg down? 2850/2900?
I don't think most of these fools see the trendline we are visiting this morning.
You are about to get what you deserve.
hugh earnings just kicked off friday
you have some time ---besides everyone is a bear now after last week's mini correction --- they're gonna need a bigher slaughterhouse lol
what they don't realize is nothing fundamentally changed last week---- the economy is still as strong as it was the week before and getting stronger
s&p heading for 3k
One difficulty for the bears (and fuel for the bulls) is bearish sentiment. Inverse etf volume as a percentage of total etf volume hit a record high (by far) last Thursday. T Berry, please don't gloat. We all make mistakes. You said in late September that you bought on margin when the S&P was at 2919.
The problem for the bulls is the technical damage that is being led by the majority of stocks. McClellan Summation is close to triggering a bear confirming drop. If we get that - which will likely happen if we revisit last week's lows - that will stay in effect for a year or more. All if good if Summation rockets when stocks do the partial rebound thing, and bulls b dead if Summation lags.
My target remains Dow 26,000, Sp 2850, QQQ 179-180, which is where my QLD/SVXY/TNA becomes QID/UVXY/TZA. Hopefully we get there tomorrow...
Need a close under 2790 here.
not gloating jeff, my position is the same as it was 4-5 years ago---the stock market is in the strongest & longest bull market in history and will continue to rise with occasional 5-7% pullbacks along the way and an occasional 10% every 3-4 years.
i did buy on margin jeff as i post all my buys in real time----i've averaged in as i always preach----made purchases on 9/24, 10/4, 10/8 & 10/10.
i'm not concerned as we are just at the start of earnings season and the s&p is already up 3%
fundamentals will continue to drive stock prices higher. remember zero has changed since the week before last. if anything, the economy has become stronger.
#nevar2800 lol
From a wave count perspective, we are either just completing wave a of an a-b-c wave 2 that tarets Dow 26K, Sp 2850, QQQ 180, or wave iv that needs a hard break of last week's lows to complete the first wave down (then comes back to the targets as laid out above.)
Both suggest we will see much lower prices before all this is over, and then we will see whether 2019 starts in outright bear mode, or outright melt-up mode.
Next MAJOR turn of Armstrong cycle is November 21, and he sees this as a major political turn event, with Merkel and Brexit in trouble, as well as reaction following the US election, where the dems have threaten to riot if they lose. Either way, volatility should stay extraordingly high
The big boys are parked in cash, and not buying a SINGLE thing. Is there an asset class that's not down?
Remember, earnings are directly correlated with stock prices!
Was that all of the retrace or nah?
Probably. So we're in a 5th wave? the middle of the channel is ~2670 on Wednesday -- Full Moon.
That would be 16 days down from the 10/3 failed 5th high. The Election is 10 days after that, with a New Moon on the day after.
Anyone interested in the long on Wednesday, flipping into a Thanksgiving short on Election Day?
New Moons are tops
Bottom of my channel is ~2600 by Wednesday -- McHugh's original target for the decline.
16TDs from the top. 10 TDs (.618) after that until the Election -- AND the FOMC. $IRX this morning is above 225 ... surprise hike on 11/7? (since there is no press conference)
So this could still get VERY spicy.
Aaaaaaand it's gone. I'm out, good luck if you still have any longs. Monday has the potential to be a crash day.
SPX now has some catching up to do.
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$BPSPX
Is long $UVXY ok?
;)
Yep.
A 2784 close here would be a literal cliff-hanger.
(e of the triangle since 2710 low)
I have close today wave B of an A-B-C counter-trend rally that targets SP 2850 for the C wave (of either a iv or a larger 2.) After that, watch out below, though the bears will still have a lot of work to do to seal the deal.
BTC has outperformed SPX for the past year. Let that sink in.
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