In the big-picture count, the W5 is also the extended wave. We just need to finish up just over the 2950 level, and get some sort of vicious key-reversal day. $NYA daily still showing its divergence -- no new high. Looking forward to seeing where we are this Tuesday.
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| S&P 500 ending-diagonal |
45 comments:
I'll cobble together a pic post of the modernist condo/townhaus horror that has overtaken Ballard, once a respectable Scandinavian neighborhood in Seattle.
Note to self, buy more canned beans and fish
news alert--dow jones hits another all time record high
this bull just keeps flexing it's muscles and doesn't appear to want to give a little pre-earnings dip prior to q3 earnings kicking off next week. we're getting close to or at a point were we will never see the s&p below 2800 again. nevar 2800 lol.
the dow jones is less than 12 months from 30,000 and less than 2.5 years from 40,000.
its time to jump on the tberry dow jones is going to hit 40,000 wagon lol. seriously it is going to hit 40,000 and may overshoot to 50,000.
my pre-earnings margin trade is up over 1.5% already and earnings haven't even started. that's 5 for 5 winning margin trades in 2018 so far.
marching on margin lol
more & new sp and nasdaq all time records coming soon
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CG, SP 2940 close enough for government work to your target? Just need the vicious reversal day. Semis, small caps, financials, and brokers ready to provide downside leadership.
yeah cg, did you buy puts today?
Yup.
We rolled over in the middle of a rising expanding megaphone mess off the 2904 low.
Still need to break down out of the megaphone (under 2923), then equities are kill.
pay no attention to the vix
(shhhhhhh, it's still 35% above 52-week low)
we were told it was going to 100 this year
lol
Today's Dow Industrial reversal candle looks pretty menacing to me, while all other indexes are in the near double top position, with volume on rallies much lesser on the second kiss of old highs. And advance/decliners have broken below their September lows...on the backs of 10 Hindenburg Omen signals. All we need now is the gap down to start the sell phase.
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/ten_hindenburgs_so_far/
good luck on those puts cg---- would love nothing more than to get a 1 to 2% pull back before the earnings season rally begins
the dow Jones hits only the 15th new all-time record high of the year today.
it's only up 9% for the year
We would not want to see new lows on the VIX here.
We want the divergence of higher index values with the VIX indicating at least a little worry.
Jeez, we were at an 11-handle much of this week.
For want of a balanced budget, 2900 was lost ...
way to go bears. thanks for the great entry . price averaged in (at twice the amount of original entry on 9/24) and you always win. overall position is now positive.
now lets get the earnings rally going!
Yields peaked or nah?
Wake me up when we get a 50 or 100 bps move on the 10Y overnight.
"there has never been a better time to be in the us stock market" - T. Berry | September 21, 2018 at 1:25 PM
S&P 500 all-time-high is 2940.91...attained on September 21, 2018
The beatings will continue until people stop BTFD.
BTFD @ 2553 next week
Market's about 3 pts SPX from having a nervous breakdown. Support is broken, waiting for the point of recognition.
After this new moon cycle we might see a temp bottom. 2553 would be great.
did a little more averagin' today
thx boo boo lol
beatings ?
longest bull market in history
Are we looking at a 10% decline this week?
If this Market is healthy, it should bounce either right now or in the next couple of days. Prices are dropping down to Prior support and lower Bollinger Bands. The dollar is hitting upper Bollinger Bands. And sentiment is pretty bad, at least in the short-term. I may go long for a nibble. But if support doesn't hold, look out below.
We are right at the spot now where a 3rd wave down should make its appearance, if it is indeed coming.
OK, so the problem for a while has been where the 5th wave ED to a plausible top began -- 2553 or 2594 on the SPX.
If it's 2594, then do we have one more pop left? 2970 right into opex? 2594 then becomes the target for a prompt retrace of the E-D.
Support is holding, and price must be respected. /me exited bearish instruments this morning and also picked up a spec long.
Finally getting some real selling, shouldn't be long now.
Did you notice where we landed, Hugh?
2846 is right about the .382 of a retrace of the leg from 2694 to 2940, i.e. wave 4 country.
The top trendline of the crazy E-D is right about SPX 3000 into October opex. Can they get one more squeeze rally out of this?
Not quite as much selling pressure as I would like, but close enough I suppose. I'll probably take a small bite this afternoon.
one last bite before earnings kickoff in earnst
This market is weak. And VIX is still a teenager. I'd like to see it much higher. And news organizations still aren't talking about it because of the hurricane. When headlines start, that could add to the panic selling.
panic? the snp is only 3% from all time record highs. this is prime time to be buying you haven't seen this kind of selling too often over the last 10 years take advantage of it
It would appear that we are in the early stages of doom here -- at least retracing the E-D to the 2553 level.
VIX finally reached the drinking age. I think we may see support around the 2730-2760 range for a little rally, and then resume down. Bulls should hope for a quick washout.
don't forget the stock market always comes back -- nice buying opportunity for those in for the long haul
T. Berry. Even if it always comes back, it doesn't always come back when you need it to. Add to this the fact that markets can become very correlated with life, and it is small wonder why there are many that argue for something other than stocks and bonds.
Besides, there are major, developed countries that have not eclipsed their stock market high water marks. Japan is well below its peak in the 80s.
How long till the Dow hits 40,000 T. Berry?
Uh oh, Bicycle is back. 2800 never again? Sounds good to me, but I seriously doubt it.
He's right, Hugh.
I'll explain tonight.
Martin Armstrong out with a private blog post: all about weekly close at 25,753 for the Dow Industrial. Above that, all good. Below that, expect sharper decline. Directional change 10/22 week. then 11/05 election week. Next panic cycle week 11/26. My take, if we either bounce following a weak open tomorrow, or we crash should be see acceleration of the selling. I expect to be trading big time going into the close tomorrow, depending on the presence or absence of a follow through to today's red ink blood-letting. Even if markets do always come back - eventually - allowing portfolios values to go down by 90% is not very smart, IMHO.
Tomorrow is a very important day...
When I see AAPL back to flat for the year, then I'll get excited.
“When the market is poised to crash or enter a bear market, you can throw all your VIX and bullshit oversold “indicators” out the window. EVERY major decline starts as an appetizing oversold condition to ego driven bottom fishers.”
https://twitter.com/markminervini/status/1050154821511204864
Blogs and Twitter saturated with the "you ain't seen nothing yet" predictions.
https://youtu.be/anwy2MPT5RE
Dont forget the beans this week
MSNBS won’t even mention the % drop bringing it back to Jan.
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