Then a final (?) 5th wave up to the 2970s to complete the pattern, in the first days of October.
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| SPX ending-diagonal, hourly |
IMO the equity markets will crash to the 2200 level into Election Day, a last-ditch effort to upset the electorate.
Tuesday, September 11, 2018
W4 in the E-D count needs another leg down
We still need the C-wave impulse of W4, into the 2830s.
Then a final (?) 5th wave up to the 2970s to complete the pattern, in the first days of October.
IMO the equity markets will crash to the 2200 level into Election Day, a last-ditch effort to upset the electorate.
Then a final (?) 5th wave up to the 2970s to complete the pattern, in the first days of October.
IMO the equity markets will crash to the 2200 level into Election Day, a last-ditch effort to upset the electorate.
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19 comments:
I need to photoblog some of the hideous late-cycle RRE going up in my neighborhood in North Seattle. Seeing more FOR SALE signs, too, plus the FSBOs.
This sucker's going to blow!
I'm in the camp similar to what McClellan mentions via this link:
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/deja_voodoo_1994_edition/
However, semis are taking a first step below down crash path today, and its imperative that the bulls step forward as semis begin their meltdown to keep the bullish hopes for a 2019 melt-up alive for the broader market.
Watch them semis...
same here cg, but the homes are being snapped up as fast as they are getting listed. even with real estate at all time record highs, i don’t see it slowing down for a few more years mainly due to such a strong economy we’re in. its hard to find an econ indicator that isn’t doing exceptionally well.
with q3 earnings coming up any pullbacks prior to, i’ll be jumping all over using margin again. i would love nothing more to be able to buy at your short term 2830 target. won't be surprise as the market seems to pullback before earnings kick-off. i’m expecting q3 to be another strong q. they should be good enough to get the s&p pretty close or even above 3000 which is my year end target. i have little doubt given all the strong econ indicators we’ve seen lately earnings will come in anything less than better than expected. q2 i believe something like 80% of the companies beat, expecting something very similar this q as the economy has only been gaining additional strength. the fundamentals definitely can support higher stock prices and that's what stocks trade on. that and future economic conditions.
i do feel we have at least 2-3 more good solid years ahead before seeing any kind of slow down. tax cuts part II should fuel the next phase of strong growth much like tax cuts part I did. on top of that is the future infrastructure bill which will no doubt provide a major economic boost although such a bill isn’t needed now not to mention there aren’t enough people to fill all the jobs it will create. additionally i think the fed will continue pushing all the right buttons and stay ahead of the curve. it’s hard not admit they did get it right this time and have done a pretty amazing job with monetary policy.
the us is experiencing the one of ,if not the greatest economic times in history. it really only started a year or so ago so it shouldn’t slow down for a while.
calling for 2200 on s&p is pretty aggressive and would begin a new bear. something i don’t expect until the s&p is north of 4000 which would knock it all the way back to 3200 level.
no worries on the semis kevin. this market is way to strong.
mkts hitting new ath's in the worst month of the year if that tells you anything. we'll be up another 12-14% this time next year so you may want to hold off on another crash call
top of the 6th, bases loaded and no outs lol
If the W4 completed -- at roughly a .236 retrace -- then we're in a 5th wave channel up that points to ~2950 by next Thursday and the quad-witch opex. That's where we would touch the top trendline of the E-D.
And hope springs eternal.
semi's are up 20% in the past 12 months.
gotta hit 2950 before 3000k cg-- like that call
"no worries on the semis"...SMH is on a weekly sell (prior weekly sell was in June 2015)...XBD has been on a weekly sell since early August (prior weekly sell was in August 2015)...probably nothing!
rotrot, i don't believe the semi's are any great threat to the over all bull market. yes in aug 15' they did sell off but smh has gone from 46.05 on 8/1/2015 to 105.59 today. more than a 2-bagger in 3 years. the sox has rallied from 601.00 to 1362. those are pretty good returns. i'm not a trader so i really don't pay attention to what they do in the next month or two, nor do i care.
i would love nothing more to see a 2-3% pullback before q3 earnings come rolling in. if that does happen i'll do a quick margin trade which seem to work pretty well because the market hardly ever sells off during earnings season. so far i've done 4 this year, all profitable with the average return 4.05% in less than 3 weeks.
re Exceptional Bear...on September 11, 2018, EB's SPX monthly and daily charts (with EB's annotations) were emailed to Kevin and Christian...EB was copied on the email...it is interesting to note that since then EB has deleted his Public Stock Charts account (https://stockcharts.com/public/1957888)...EB knows how abysmal his historical market calls have been...EB knows full well that others know and have called him out in the past...did EB delete his Public Stock Charts account because we are monitoring him?
https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=547276048038789798&postID=5530686258090619044
This rally looks suspect so far. Retail getting slammed.
Yes, Hugh.
C of 4 back to the low 2840s next week is still on the table, followed by a strong rally into EOM.
hope you're right cg, that falls right in line with my 2-3% we usually get leading up to earnings. then, we're off to the races throughout another solid earnings season. if they're good enough 3000 should go down well before year end.
hugh i think retail will bounce at some point based on today's record consumer confidence reading and this years holiday season which should set more records.
EB is back...https://stockcharts.com/public/1957888
EB Tweet and public tale of woe...there may be a whole lot more to this than meets the eye...however, this is not the forum to divulge any further insight...you be the judge!
https://twitter.com/mirahyes/status/1041200916148322306
https://docs.google.com/document/d/15WPkAZl34Cne-Xkdlu3oMn87RVy8hegXTes8j5zxoyI/edit
Rotrot, not many people told you to sell the 07 peaks, but the 09 lows, sell the 2011 peaks, buy the 11 lows, ride the swings so well he became timer digest trader of the year in 2015. Oh, and he nailed the Janury 2018 peak, nailed the February lows, and was proven right that the SP would close the gap at 2880 level, which is where he went short, with that trade still on. The guy has helped me make money, and I like that.
Armstrong just out, said looking for a corrective low - turning point - next week (assumes we go down from here; opposite if up into next week. Fits of CG expectation. Fits my expectation. Fits ex b's expectation. All looking to buy the lows next week as vix soars in mini panic.
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