The channel is steeper than thought and has its origin at 2594 SPX in May. The 1.382 fib extension of this pullback from the 2872 is 2980 SPX, a level we could reach at the beginning of October.
$IRX indicating the September hike. Here's the steeper channel and updated count.
Strangely enough, everything still points towards the same target next March, when everyone will be begging the Fed to lay down some serious loose policy again.
The Fed will oblige them, it will have no choice.
Strangely enough, everything still points towards the same target next March, when everyone will be begging the Fed to lay down some serious loose policy again.
The Fed will oblige them, it will have no choice.
33 comments:
welcome back cg!
what are you looking for in your march target? would love to see a 5-6% pullback to put a some money i made on my margin trades this year to work.
reason i ask is next year is year 3 in the presidential cycle and since ww2 the stock market hasn't had a single losing year during a 3rd year term. stocks actually perform quite well in the 3rd year with the average gain being over 16% in 3rd years. given this is the longest and strongest bull market we could easily see more than 16% next year. i believe the 3rd year is the best of all 4.
2018 is shaping up to be another pretty good year given it's a churn sideways year. so far.
nas up +17%
russell +13%
trannies +12%
s&p +9%
hey hugh, you better start poking your bear! only 16 trading days left until summer's over. not a lot of time for the s&p to drop 582 points. : )
naz once again showing its leadership on pace to have one of the greatest monthly gains ever over 4.5%
it's now only 23% from the big round 10000 conservatively it should get there within 18 months and aggressively within 12 months. ( just don't tell nenner and armstrong lol)
another day another nasdaq & russell new all time record highs
the rest of the indexes will continue to follow
we'll see if the bears have any muster as we head into september which has historically been the worst month of the year for stocks. the odds sure don't favor them if you consider august gains were historic and august has been historically the second worst month of the year.
poke that bear hugh : )
#sp4000
More woke capitalism from NKE!
ism, just another all time record high.
we're entering the sweet spot of the year. 100% up from here through 12/31 in the last 9 years. average gain over 7%.
3000 will go down pretty easy
Pullback right on schedule. Will they ever learn?
https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
I've been expecting sideways churn all year, and that likely has another month or so to go before we are in position for the markets to go somewhere meaningful. The degree of selling during the next correction should dictate whether top is in or we experience a royal melt-up year next year. The 1994 comparison (link below) is as good a road-map of what to expect in the short and intermediate term. That assumes we don't crash on the next sell phase. Either way, crash or 1994 repeat should offer a perfect time to load up on the long side a couple of months from now. (Semis, ouch....)
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/deja_voodoo_1994_edition/
hugh, summer bear 11 trading days away. this guy is offering hope--calling for a crash in q3.
https://www.wallstreetreporter.com/2018/02/charles-nenner-still-bearish-market-crash-in-q3-2018/
you're in the company of a guru lol. although he has been wiffing for the past couple years.
Nenner has SP 2938 as his sell target. He his currently long, though his cycle turn fast approaching.
this nenner?
Kevin Wilde said...
Here's the view of a couple of guru's I follow:
Charles Nenner is screaming to get out before September. Dow going to 5000
August 19, 2017 at 5:42 AM
surprised he'd be long. lol
Charles Nenner: “It’s Going To Be A Blood Bath” As The Dow Drops To 5,000
May 2, 2018
https://www.silverdoctors.com/headlines/world-news/its-going-to-be-a-blood-bath-as-the-dow-crashes-to-5000/
is ex b long too?
Kevin Wilde said...
Here's the view of a couple of guru's I follow:
Ex B is screaming rally to SP 2490 before we crash, though crash we will, and 2490 is last chance to get out of longs, or enter UVXY at favorable prices.
August 19, 2017 at 5:42 AM
T.Berry, you can sign up at twitter to get Charles Nenner's shorter term calls. You can sign up at stockcharts.com to follow Ex B's calls. You can sign up at alphaking.com for my calls, where, as you know, I returned 66% last year, and up about 9% this. All three of us have similar views: bull markets follow bear markets, just as bear markets follow bull markets; that the markets move in such yin then yang cycles of different time frames; where Dow 5,000 - and financial crises - is assured, though we differ on the "when," and we await confirmation the bull is complete. Since we get there one trade at a time, focusing on trades in the here and now are the way to go. Subscribe to the above if you want to see what they are doing re trades right here. I remain long QQQ while hedged, looking to go all in long - on leverage - later this fall, so long as we don't crash on the expected correction. Such a big bear win would confirm the bull is over, and Dow 5000 and financial crises on deck next. Till the bears score a big win, expect the bubble to keep getting bigger, and so too the degree of financial pain will be coming out the other end.
CG. I think we are very close. We got no new low in VIX and VXX despite the recent S&P all time high. Also semis and biotechs look dicey here. The perpetual growth trade fading shouldn't be good for Mr mkt
Exceptional Bear has been calling for a top and crash since 2013...Charles Nenner since 2015...someday they will be right!
https://www.exceptional-bear.com/
http://charlesnenner.com/
Exceptional Bear on StockCharts
https://stockcharts.com/public/1957888
Charles Nenner Interview | August 28, 2018
https://twitter.com/NennerResearch/status/1034784119979425792
While the big sell off both Nenner and exceptional bear have been calling for has yet to land, please don't forget the get long calls both have made along the way, including the current buy the February lows ones. Now they are both looking to lock in profits on those buys. Nenner's SP target is 2938. Will try to post once he sells so we can judge fairly.
Yep, the bears are crazy:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-stock-market-bear-signal-is-at-a-more-than-4-decade-high-says-goldman-2018-09-06?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts
if you carefully review Exceptional Bear's historical market calls on his website and Nenner's public pronouncements (various interviews on youtube) you will see for yourself how abysmal their market calls have been...if you want to waste money, subscribe to their services...guru's?
I have followed exceptional bear and Nenner for about 15 years and their big picture work is second to none, and their shorter term calls exceptional. Yes, the top calling has been tricky over the past few years, though each and every time we saw a sell-off - they both forecasted would happen, they would nail buying the lows, AND be proven right that we would hit modest new highs. Like Nenner said, in the big picture, to be out of the markets late last year, also said to buy the February lows, which is has yet to exit, with a target of 2938 for the SP. While ex b said to buy the February lows, expecting the gap at SP 2880 to filled (at a minimum,) or mildly exceeded. And best of all, you don't need to pay anything for their subscription, as nenner tweets his short term trades for free, while ex b shows his charts for free.
Who do YOU suggest is a better market timer?
kevin, according to previous posts on nenners twitter, didn't see one that said he was buying. quite the contrary is a feb 13, 2018 tweet -"The End of the Bull Stock Market"/
plus these are documented nenner calls ---not very accurate
nenner June 5, 2016
I still look for Dow Jones 5,000. I think the second half of 2016 is going to be a bad situation for stocks, but it’s not going to be the big one. The big one will start the third quarter of 2017
https://thedailycoin.org/2016/06/05/charles-nenner-next-big-war-will-involve-china-dow-5000/
nenner august 19, 2017
“Charles Nenner is screaming to get out before September. Dow going to 5000”
http://deflationland.blogspot.com/2017/08/charts-89-setup-now-for-huge-sell-off.html
nenner feb 11, 2018
" I don’t think we will go back to the highs one more time because the quarterly cycle, and it is a long cycle, did top at the end of last year. The fact is we are totally out of stocks."
https://usawatchdog.com/the-end-of-the-bull-stock-market-buy-gold-charles-nenner/
nenner march 2, 2018
Charles Nenner: "We're Totally Out Of Stocks, What's Coming Is Big"
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-02/charles-nenner-were-totally-out-stocks-whats-coming-big
yet he's still long? lol
perhaps one of the biggest perma-bears of our time
as for your goldman reference above, won’t even go there, those guys are too easy to research how many blown calls they’ve made-- just google it
heck kevin, lets show goldman some love too lol
November 16, 2016--
"Goldman Sachs Says Donald Trump Will Be Terrible for Stocks in 2017"
http://fortune.com/2016/11/21/goldman-sachs-donald-trump-stock-market/
ranks up there with some of the worst calls ever---meanwhile 2 years later, american's have never been wealthier and the stock market in the past 2 years has hit over 100+ new all time record highs. 2017 was an outstanding year
so nenner claims to have bought the february lows----(feb 8th) and on feb 11th he stated "we are totally out of stocks". then on march 2 he reiterated "We're Totally Out Of Stocks, What's Coming Is Big", so he held those buys on feb 8th for a day? lol
yeah, he's worthy of following lol
I have to agree with T.Berry on Nenner. His calls have been terrible. They are all documented on youtube. Exceptional bear is well - how can I put it in a Politically Correct way - he's exceptional in a special way.
thanks pb , with the internet its a little easier checking past calls.
most of these guys are one-hit wonders (schiff, bass, nenner, dr doom, armstrong etc) . they made a past call that turned out to be outstanding and seem to cling on that one call that gave them 15 minutes of fame all the while missing many calls afterwards. schiff is a classic, he's been calling for a crash since the last one back in 09' lol.
like him or not, jim cramer probably has the very best track record over the past 10 years. i'm not a huge fan but you gotta give him credit. 100% long for 10 years---he caught most of the greatest stock market move in history.
we are in such a robust economy that's only getting robuster that i can't see much of a stock market pullback for at least 3-4 maybe 5 years. we have upcoming tax cuts part two that will only continue the economic momentum. when that momentum begins to slow in a couple years, the infrastructure bill will get rolled out (no need to do that now, one, the economy can't support one---not enough available employees and two, economically the country doesn't need the help).
"Visual Evidence of a Dramatic Reversal into a Bear Market Free-fall" - Eduardo Mirahyes | October 10, 2015
http://www.exceptional-bear.com/resources/Market+Letter+Oct+10+Visual+Evidence+of+Bear+Market+reversal+$28revised+Oct+12$29.pdf
Charles Nenner - October 18, 2015
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EU0greGZcpg
On the economy, Renowned analyst Charles Nenner predicts, “If you look at the business cycle, then you see the whole thing is turning down. It’s very regular. The problem is that we are not turning down from a GDP at 6%, we are turning down from a GDP of 1%. So, soon we are going to be very negative, and we are going to be in for a very negative deflationary crisis. It doesn’t mean the stock market is going to collapse now. It’s going to be the end of 2017. It’s one and a half years away. I think we could rally before the end of the year, but it will be a catastrophe in 2017. The Dow is going to 5,000 . . . by 2021. I have been saying this for years. If you are not safe before 2017, you can lose everything you have.”
Also, on the economy, Nenner warns, “It’s going to be very bad. My cycles show now unemployment is going up, which is another deflationary problem. Profits of companies will be very bad. . . . Everything is going to turn down. . . . The dollar is getting ready to go into a bear market, and next year will be the year of the Euro.”
On gold and silver, Nenner says, “I don’t think it will test the lows again, and it will take off in the first quarter of next year.”
Rotrot, the problem is you aren't posting when these guys said to go long on market dips. You're simply cherry picking what people say, and that distorts the facts. Yes, both are looking for a major bear decline that has yet to start in earnest. However, they still went long the markets when cycles said to, thus able to sell the highs and buy the lows. That's much more important to me from a trading perspective. Since I trade for a living, and do battle with the markets every day, through every complacent rally surge, and every scary market dive, watching for peak and valley calls from people like Nenner, ex B, Armstrong, McClellan, DeMark are helpful, since it's usually very difficult to sell into raging rallies, and buy into scary dives as fear hits the TV screen. But that's what I do, and analysis from others help solidify my own actions based on stance of my own indicators and cycle work. As the saying goes, when ghosts come a calling, who're gonna call? Ghostbusters. If a great bear - or great bull - come a calling, who're gonna call? People who have traded such events before. Now if they're of no help to you, then great, don't use them. Just don't be so dismissive of others who do find value in them.
Kevin...have you subscribed to Nenner's daily service or are you relying on his public calls?
Kevin...have you subscribed to Exceptional Bear's service or are you relying on his public calls?
Kevin...if the answer to both questions is no then please do not accuse me of "cherry picking"...that is what you are you doing...I know first hand that their daily calls are abysmal!
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