well the naz & russell have been telegraphing the s&p's move to new all time record highs for about the last 2 months. its just a matter of when now. there still are about 50+ s&p companies left to report and given how strong they've been up to this point we could very well see new ath's for the s&p this week. still in the camp we could see a 2-3% pullback after earnings are over. the s&p is up 4.6% in the last month.
we are in the midst of one of (if not) the strongest economic expansions in history. the amount of wealth creation in just the past 10 years for investors is nearing unprecedented levels.
i can see it lasting a good 2-3 more years. and of course stocks will follow.
401k's, home prices (nationally), & stock portfolio's are at all time record high levels.
unemployment at decades lows (3.9% and continuing to fall), more job openings than unemployed (has never happened before) low inflation (under 2%) along with wage growth at 2.7% and growing.
americans have never been wealthier.
at some point we'll see another recession but it won't be for a while (at least 2-3 years). the economic outlook based on recent earnings remains robust.
i think i'm the only one on the site to ever post a losing trade :(
lost 7.5% on tvix & tza about a year ago. they're down about another 70% since then. learned the hard way hedging doesn't work in bull markets as strong as this one.
"hugh, if you're still out there, thoughts on uvxy at 8.11? you a buyer?" I'm tempted once again, but I think I'll sit it out just a bit longer. Pretty much on the sidelines for the time being.
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You can hedge your taco risk with a soft-shell tortilla strategy.
well the naz & russell have been telegraphing the s&p's move to new all time record highs for about the last 2 months. its just a matter of when now. there still are about 50+ s&p companies left to report and given how strong they've been up to this point we could very well see new ath's for the s&p this week. still in the camp we could see a 2-3% pullback after earnings are over. the s&p is up 4.6% in the last month.
we are in the midst of one of (if not) the strongest economic expansions in history. the amount of wealth creation in just the past 10 years for investors is nearing unprecedented levels.
i can see it lasting a good 2-3 more years. and of course stocks will follow.
This is not wealth creation, it's a pure credit bubble. The RRE bubble is already bursting even here in the Seattle.
I'm starting to see the FOR SALE signs, will be epic by this fall, with every idiot expecting 7 figures for their moldy little palace.
not wealth creation???
401k's, home prices (nationally), & stock portfolio's are at all time record high levels.
unemployment at decades lows (3.9% and continuing to fall), more job openings than unemployed (has never happened before) low inflation (under 2%) along with wage growth at 2.7% and growing.
americans have never been wealthier.
at some point we'll see another recession but it won't be for a while (at least 2-3 years). the economic outlook based on recent earnings remains robust.
s&p just a small rounding error till new all time record highs. no surprise, nas/russel told us it was coming.
and now within 4% of the mighty 3,000.
remember, we're only in the 6th inning. : )
hedge on! lol
Exited SPY calls.
I think you get your new highs for the S&P 500, but not for a few weeks yet, up at 2895.
no hurry cg. did you abandon the call for 2890 by tomorrow?
are you expecting a pullback? if so, how low do you think it'll go? i've got some margin money ready to go!
I noticed we hit some trendlines this morning and dumped my SPY 285 calls.
Count this as an ending diagonal from the May 3 low. So far we have a plausible 3 of 5 waves in.
W4 would run toward the end of August -- the .382 is at 2798 SPX, probably pick up the lower BB for support, too.
Then a final pop for W5, new highs on the S&P 500, etc, into early September.
nice job on the calls too!
i think i'm the only one on the site to ever post a losing trade :(
lost 7.5% on tvix & tza about a year ago. they're down about another 70% since then. learned the hard way hedging doesn't work in bull markets as strong as this one.
naz now 1,033 above the top
october 10, 2017
"a 1987 crash awaits the bulls as the NAZ nears the 6850 level. So big bad bear starting now, or after a run to NAZ 6850,"
almost a year to the day, the "guru" nenner was screaming to get out of the market by september.
those who listened, missed out on 15% gains since.
hugh, if you're still out there, thoughts on uvxy at 8.11? you a buyer?
pay no attention to the trannies (1% from ath's)
"hugh, if you're still out there, thoughts on uvxy at 8.11? you a buyer?" I'm tempted once again, but I think I'll sit it out just a bit longer. Pretty much on the sidelines for the time being.
good move hugh. i thought maybe with your summer 2018 bear market call you'd be at least nibbling. so much for the buy of a lifetime under 10.00 lol
/me not buying anything for 2 weeks. E-D still playing out ... tedium ahead.
chop-central until then, death, destroyer of theta. the .382 retrace of this last leg up is 2798 on the S&P 500.
i plan to buy that leg for a 5th wave into the September New Moon (post Labor Day).
Summer is not over until late September. Still plenty of time for the bear to growl!
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