Just noticed that the move to 2848 on the SPX last week put in a higher RSI. That's bad news for anyone looking for a final top, because we should see a higher high on the index with a lower RSI -- an important divergence at any significant top.
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| bad AAPL earns ahead |
So we can instead expect a dive to 2750 on the S&P into Wednesday FOMC, a weakening position from the Fed, and one last moonshot into next week, finishing at a slight new ATH with the August New Moon. A short, sharp 5th wave to new highs, Bollinger Band touches, the upper wedge trendline, and, importantly, divergences on the RSI with both the 2848 and 2872 highs.
2750 is also the perfect .382 retrace of what we can now see was the W3 in the sequence off the April lows.
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| S&P 500 sharp 5th to the New Moon |
Then we can resume the planned trajectory, start breaking down supports in earnest, as we make our way back to firm support at 1810.
10 comments:
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thanks aapl! just rang the register on my july 11 margin trade. +4.2% 4-4 on margin this year. will repeat again during the lead up to q3 earnings.
not a bad month for the s&p, up 3.6% and heading higher.
it's possible post earnings we could see your 2750 cg----think we'll see a 2-3% pullback on some profit taking after the outstanding july.
T.Berry --
You think we can run this all the way up to 2980 in a parabolic move? That's where resistance lives now.
we'll get to 2980 cg, just not sure how soon but definitely by year end which is a-ok with me. actually my y/e target is 3k.
aapl solid beat. 82% of the s&p companies that have reported beat. that's about as good as it gets, some may even say magical lol
Something is going to blow up as we crest this monster. By 2980, I mean next Wednesday.
Thinking PPI / CPI come in smoking hot.
by next wednesday cg? no way could i see that happening that's almost a 6% move. the fundamentals at this time probably wouldn't support such a move. granted, this is the strongest bull market in history but it ain't that strong!
prefer a nice slow and steady grind to 3,000 with periodic 2-3% pullbacks along the way. that's how its been for the last 10 years. much more sustainable in my opinion.
aapl hits ath's and guides higher.
get those naz 8k hats ready!
still have about 1000+ companies reporting next week. there's a chance s&p could be hitting new all time record highs once again. based on the outlooks so far, 3000 shouldn't be much of a problem this year. besides, the economic news continues to get better.
happy fabulous friday!
There are channels on at least 3 different scales pointing to 2890 on the S&P 500 mid next week.
After that, anyone's guess ...
IMO I think the CPI and PPI reads late next week will come in scorchingly hot.
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