It retraced right to the .236 fib of the larger W3, and completed a very nice c of 4 impulse today. Now there is a nice fib extension upward -- the 1.618 extension of this retrace -- pointing to the 2820 level right into the July 4 holiday. /ES futures looking good now this evening.
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| SPX 06-21 ending-diagonal count |
When this breaks down, we have channel support at 2430 or so at EOM July, followed by the August 1 FOMC (no hike) and a decent bounce. The logical target of that bounce would be a retest and hard fail to retake the 200 DMA from underneath.
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| SPX path to 1810 |
The actual rate hike at the 9/26 meeting gives us the last leg down to firm support at 1810. Then we can rally through Christmas, all the way to the mid-January Bradley turn date, before the real credit crisis makes landfall.
28 comments:
1810 is enough to ask of the markets this fall.
We'll be in a world of hurt in 2019.
Martin A was out yesterday with an interesting private blog post on the Dow Industrials.
We have a directional change next week, with the next one after that first and second weeks of August. In between those directional changes, we have a panic cycle week 7/18, and super high volatility 7/23 week.
So looks like a sell-off into July leading to panic of sorts, as a prelude to a rebound starting early to mid-August.
Major level to watch for Dow is 24,386, which we bounced off of yesterday. 22,415 and then 21,600, are where damage gets serious.
In short, he said to expect consolidation to continue, and we have to wait till we come out of the summer for that to end.
There go the transports.
There goes the semis, and financials, which historically have been the leader canaries (with the trannies of course.)
How bout dat SOX!?
This morning finally finish up a larger wave 4, to the .382 area retrace?
started nibbling for an earnings flipper. still have plenty of margin power left. 2 weeks till q2 earnings start rolling in.
I'd wait 4 days with indexes below 200 day moving average before buying, to avoid the crash scenario. Dow looks on track to start that count today, so buy close Thursday (unless SP moves below 200 day, then wait for that to close 4 days below - unless NAZ is below the 200 day by then, in which case one waits 4 days below 200)
I personally think we sell-off into the fall - so says cycles, anyway
Copper under 3. Womp womp!
We smacked the 100 DMA and the lower 2SD BB. Can we finish this up now, please?
I've heard the womp womp meme lately.
well i'd like to have bought more but i jumped in when we hit 2707 instead of waiting till 2700 which was my target. i didn't buy a full load but if we drop again tomorrow i'll probably load up.
one thing i've learned over the past 7 years is this bull doesn't stay down for long nor does it ignore great earnings which we've seen over that time. q2's will be no different and the outlook should continue to remain strong. only wish i'd have been buying on margin leading up to earnings years ago lol.
feeling pretty good about today's trade
Womp womp has been going around since this. LOL
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vrt7q6QKF5o
Martin was out with a private blog post yesterday talking about a very interesting big picture view.
He called the January high, and now he's looking for signs it was the high for the year, and high for the next 3 years.
Weekly bearish is Dow 24,100. If that goes, we test the monthly level (he doesn't say it this time, though I believe that is at 22K.
If that gets taken out, then we extend the consolidation (selling) into 2020. However, if that happens, we are looking at an incredible explosive rally into 2025/26.
This is all about currency reset (which probably means the EURO.)
Weekly, monthly, quarterly, and yearly closes are very important to Martin's work, along with his cycles. This Friday closes this week, month, and quarter, so a biggie in showing where the markets are going next.
we'll see dow jones 40k before 25/26. again, i believe we overshoot it and go close to 50k. by then i'll be long gone : )
think we have seen standard dip before earnings yesterday. usually they last a couple days but when there is still a ton of cash coming into the markets you gotta be quick. yesterdays margin buy is already up almost 3% in a day : )
Don't be fooled, we're headed lower.
https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=547276048038789798&postID=3551438038230391733
if you are not tracking the XLF weekly and monthly charts you may regret it...opinions are BS...the charts are speaking...ominous and a BIG WOW!
when you stop saying that hugh i'll get worried : )
most popular phrase since 2012 lol
BTC bout to lose 6000.
OMG.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$TRIN
there goes the s&p. lol
mondays margin buy up a tidy 4.2% . time to ring the register---don't wanna get greedy plus i think we'll get another quick pullback before q2 earnings heat up the week of july 9th . calling the earnings trade my geico trade---so easy a caveman can do it lol. the fact we're in the strongest bull in history does make it a bit easy.
womp womp! : )
4 day s&p selloffs are rare
lol hugh. 52 week low is .01. there is still plenty of room on the downside :)
earnings in 6 trading days, don't get caught short lol
"The only thing that looking at the bright side will do for you is to leave you blind. Rose-colored glasses are like shades on a sightless man. Optimism keeps you from seeing the truth."
Mr. Mean Spirited
Is SOX about to lose 1300? Ooga booga!
I would not be surprised to see us go +60 on the S&P tomorrow. Really.
Or down 60 SP points to rip er open...
Yeah, that's the "alt". ;)
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