We have a rising 50 DMA, which is also right around the 2715 level, where we would see a W1-W4 overlap on the ending-diagonal. It would then bounce sharply, rallying to around 2820, closing a gap into the July 4 break. I pray that we still celebrate Independence Day.
The problem with the New Moon 2791 high recently is that RSI made a similar extreme, suggesting that this move was the W3 in the series.
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| SPX daily 06-19 |
McHugh has quietly noticed we are in a new window for a Hindenburg Omen and subsequent crash. Sssh! Don't tell anyone.
14 comments:
One thing badly missing from the 2791 high was a key-reversal day.
dumb money hitting another new all time record high. lol.
nasdaq now 925 points above the 6850 top
bring on 2700 permas!
dumb money is now up 11% ytd and 438% since march 2009. lol
Selling Dow and SP stocks to buy RUT is like rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic after hitting the iceberg. Which do YOU own, Dow, SP, or RUT?
Smart money is still selling into rallies, with high volume on sell-offs (like Yesterday,) and low volume on rallies (like today.)
Christian, I have that 5 waves final move a C of a 2, rather than a 5, though doesn't make much different, really. Interesting times.
2715 is also the .382 retrace of the proposed W3 from 2594 to 2791.
So that and the 50 DMA would make for a nice place to land by Friday, then the 5th wave up.
LOL!
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/jun/20/starbucks-burned-social-justice-appeasement-growth/
nope not selling anything. i've been in a t rowe price mid cap (not sure if it holds russell companies) fund for almost 5 years along with several other funds. doing quite well.
speaking of the russell, its gone from 389 to 1700 in 9 years. dumb money isn't doing too bad.
look forward to deploying some margin power should the s&p get down to 2700 before q2 earnings come rolling in. expecting another solid performance in both earnings & the outlooks. this economy continues to get stronger, if not the strongest ever (as the don is saying) but for sure in decades.
RUT up 105% since 07, and 180% since 2000. NASDAQ is up 60% since 2000, some two decades later. And all that's after a 9 year bull market run on the backs of the biggest central bank and government debt bubble in history. Let's see where those numbers sit after the next bear phase.
The RUT has never been a market leader, though it does do better during inflationary periods. Problem is, the best gauge of inflation - silver and copper - are acting as if deflation is more in play than inflation.
Tis all about what comes next. What comes next - once the churn silliness we have had to endure all year ends - is likely a 30%+ hard move. Too early to tell the direction of that move, though we should know later this fall. Indeed, a 30% drop followed by a 30% rally wouldn't surprise me at all.
Which, in short, means a trend traders dream - just like the last two decades have been - and more misery for buy and hold hopers.
however if you price averaged in (which is the way to go) you nailed it and got enormous returns.
investing 101.
fact: long term price averaging in wins 100% of the time.
"long term price averaging in wins 100% of the time." I personally knew several people who followed that advice leading into the 2008/09 downturn. They were very near retirement and lost half their savings. Needless to say, their retirement was postponed a bit. Timing matters.
yep, agree hugh, when you're that close to retirement you shouldn't be in the stock market. my plan has me out 3-5 years before calling it quits. if for some reason the bear shows up you still have plenty of time to get back your investment because bears don't last long. (average is about 18 months) but my plans are changing----may be getting out earlier and semi retiring (living off divy income) due in large part by the returns over the past 7 years. :)
Bears last 2 to 3 decades, especially the one we face going forward.
Of course, the question is when is the bull over?
Since this is the second longest on record, sooner rather than later has to be the answer.
There are some cycles that say we have further to go time wise - such as FED cycle could have another 6 months to go before yield curve inverts (though 10y minus 2y is under 0.4%, which usually means recession and market peak about to land) - and the 7 year cycle targets a peak in 2021.
So sometime between January this year and 2021 expect a bull market peak that will not be eclipsed for 2 to 3 decades.
The bigger question is what's the plan for trading this life-changing bull to bear phase? Trend following is the answer, and buy and hope bears only last 2 years is defo not it.
How you trade is up to you, though I just want you to be aware of the truth regarding bear markets and longer term cycles, such as demographics. Talk to be when we are in the middle of the next financial crises (and FED bubbles always lead to major recessions and financial crises) about whether its time to be more bullish. Here? Any long this market - and I am - should be aware we are playing with fire.
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