Tuesday, October 7, 2014

In this thread I apologize for making fun of Daneric and his wave count

I took a cheap shot at poor ol' Daneric yesterday, but he gets the last laugh, doesn't he?

What looked like a forced count, another one of those, bear-with-me, it's a leading-diagonal, it's only retraced 98%, it's still a legal wave 2, trust me here ... counts ... well, after all of the broken counts and disappointments of the last 5 years, Daneric just nails it.

The rally -- yes, a wave 4 that retraced almost 70% of its wave 3 on the SPX -- indeed DID stop short of the wave 1 he had counted at 1978, and was thus legal.  And today we got the follow-through.

Well, bully, Daneric!  I only hope that my acknowledgment here doesn't send us to fresh new all-time highs.  Indeed, maybe this count working out (so far) finally confirms a new bear.

I still think we can reach support at the 200 DMA on the SPX this week, if we are in a 5th wave that is set to extend.  The triangle we drew today indicates a wave 4, sure, but we then notice that the wave (i) and (iii) in the series did not extend, so we could see it here in the 5th, with an expected bottom on the Bradley turn Thursday.

SPX 10-07

There is then another Bradley turn next week, which would mark a kissback to an old rally channel and the beginning of the drop to 1737.

10 comments:

Phat Repat said...

Oh, I don't know. That seems a little too predictable. I like Bicycle's view of the Dow. Works for me; let's see if the FOMC will accommodate. ;-)

Numbers so far (still early obviously): Sell below 1934.95 with a stop of 1958.12 while targets remain.

christiangustafson said...

We got the new low. Some sort of 5th wave may be in.

200 nowhere in sight, and maybe it doesn't even matter. Look @ the earlier tops, and the 200 was generally something to be sliced through.

Bryan's study-of-tops -- still a big chance of a wild move up again. UVXY did not set new highs on today's low.

Phat Repat said...

Not much of a tell so far. Looks like it's gonna be FOMC for resolution. ;-)

Of course, that's just short-term noise, but it has to be respected from a trader's view.

Phat Repat said...

Yep, numbers are as follows:

Sell/Stop 1933.59/1956.77

Buy/Stop 1965.69/1942.46

Tick, Tock

christiangustafson said...

Did anyone else pick up any lotto calls this morning?

Phat Repat said...

Nope on the lotto calls, but I did take some SPY put profits. Have to stick with the system and that won't allow a buy until 1965.69 (or thereabouts). ;-)

Phat Repat said...

Yeah, don't like what I see with crude. But they are helping me out with FXE.

christiangustafson said...

Yesterday was one of Dr. Bob McHugh's phi mate turn dates.

Tonight is a big blood red moon.

Tomorrow is a Bradley turn date.

And we have another Bradley turn date coming up next week, 10/16.

sooner said...

Seems to me what we saw this afternoon was the bradley turn date.

Phat Repat said...

Interesting view of TNX. I use TLT for trading purposes, and for the moment, it is still showing Bull trend. However, that would be quite a reversal if TNX behaves as you depict. Nice.