Monday, October 6, 2014

Charts 10-06: Let's look at a couple of short-term cycles

Disappointed Deflation Land readers, hungry for blood in the street and on the indices (instead of the clearly corrective tape from the last high), should at least be grateful that I don't foist anemic wave counts like this on them.

Sorry, Daneric, but that count is strictly from hunger, and deceptive since you don't draw that BROKEN topline from 2019 SPX.  And I'm sad to see that Daneric is counting the Wilshire 5000 lame index again, just sad.

I won't do that to my audience, neither of you out there, I respect your intelligence.  Instead I will labor to find something fresh even in these tedious corrective charts.  We'll try a short-term time cycle or two.  What this one suggests for me is that there is no rush to try any more speculative longs of any magnitude until the FOMC minutes come out at 2:00 pm EDT Wednesday.

SPX 10-06

19 comments:

Phat Repat said...

Still nothing actionable at this point. Current numbers for long/short positions are: sell below confirmation of 1945.37 and buy above confirmation of 1977.64.

Not providing stops as I don't believe we will have clear direction until the ridiculous charade of FOMC is completed tomorrow. ;-)

Christian Gustafson said...

Agreed, time for a book thread tonight! LOL

Phat Repat said...

Great; always looking for more reading material. :)

Bicycle said...

Descending triangle today?

Bicycle said...

How about this guy? Dump later today then a mega-ramp into the crazy eclipse?

Bicycle said...

The descending triangle has turned into a bull pennant...

Bicycle said...

The bigger picture...

Bicycle said...

The pennant failed... which means that descending triangle is still alive... for now...

Bicycle said...

And now the descending triangle is resolving. Should have stuck with that. Looks like we are headed to 16700-16750 on the Dow and then we are going to get our one final stupid bull maniac bounce to the blood red eclipse from 16700s all the way up to potential new highs on the Dow near 17400... or a failed 5th much earlier.

Bicycle said...

This is going to be something else; we may ramp 600 Dow points in the next 3 days leading to Columbus Day.

Phat Repat said...

Wow, this is some good stuff. A gap down, then this sell off, followed by another likely gap down tomorrow (bear trap) and then the potential euphoria of the FOMC tomorrow afternoon. Hmmm... They're not that predictable, are they? ;-)

Christian Gustafson said...

1904 SPX this week looks reasonable once again. Look at UVXY capturing the fear and tension of this moment -- can you believe that just yesterday she had a 24-handle?

I will be in total awe if the bulls can dig out of this hole & get us a new ATH. Extreme danger ...

Bicycle said...

We tagged 16747 on the Dow and I guess that may have been it, unless we're going to wander a little bit lower before the close. Get ready for an insane ramp into the weekend.

I wonder what kind of black swan geopolitical event we are going to get on Columbus day. US Military shuts down all international air travel? Liberian shipping container stowaways come across the Atlantic on 3 separate boats? Or how interesting, for some European traveller, perhaps connecting through Spain, to bring one final pestilence to the "native" Americans of today?

Bicycle said...

In the ultimate confidence inspiring move, Janet Yellen eats bush meat live on CNBC tomorrow morning

Bicycle said...

Gulp...

Phat Repat said...

True, the numbers don't lie. ;-) Here is what I have based on where we are now: Short below 1944.80 with a stop at 1964.89. T1 of 1894.47, T2 of 1886.88.

I am short as of now and would likely take profits near T1 +/- 10 points. Stop loss will change as prices come in tomorrow.

Christian Gustafson said...

This is back on?

Bryan Franco said...

No more than 20% down before new ATH. If we sustain trade below 1905-ish, I am playing for low 1700s

Permabear Doomster said...

CG re: I will be in total awe if the bulls can dig out of this hole & get us a new ATH. Extreme danger ...
--


Yes...and I think many are losing sight of the bigger monthly cycles. R2K is 100% BROKEN. Dow is negative MACD cycle, rest of the indexes will follow in November, even if prices remain flat.

The original outlook is back ON... as I'll note over and over again across the next few weeks.. .the only issue is whether we get stuck in the next up wave.. or just keep rising.

Considering those monthly charts... I'm looking for sp'1780/60 before year end.
-

yours.... sickly (but not Ebola)