First, let's take a look at the VIX, whose breakdown through an important support yesterday supports the idea that this will continue in the short-term. Next support is down in the 12s.
VIX dropping back to the 12s would power us to new highs, per the channel we have carved out since the 1820 lows. 2038 SPX marks the top of a megaphone-like trendline coming over from the previous highs.
After this presumed top, crash models are very much back in play. An important deflationista theme is that when things do finally start to move, they will move so fast that everyone who is still playing by the old rules will miss it. So even bearish shorts will cover too early because some responsible technical indicator told them to do so, and they get to sit and watch the rest of the crash play out.
|SPX 10-28 6M crash|
Deflation. What you imagine is money is not, and it is a lot less liquid than you think.
The hour is late.