Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Squeeeeeze


Oh my.

37 comments:

Christian Gustafson said...

I have to admit, it's fun NOT to be caught short for one of these.

Lower daily Bollinger on UVXY is way down at $17. Would be great to pick it up down there.

Phat Repat said...

Yes; moving on up, to the top...

Numbers so far are:

Buy above 1907.43 with Stop 1884.73 and T1 remains 1933.18. T2 not really clear at this point but, looking at the past, could be 2045.06 (a prior target not met in last run). Kinda hard to believe right now. ;-)

Other Targets will evolve if this is more of a sustained rally.

T.Berry said...

snp less than 4% from ath. just matter of when now.

Bicycle said...

Ok, through the 200 on the Dow now. Proceed to new ATH. See you in about 800 Dow points.

T.Berry said...

going on record no rate hikes next year. mr mkt won't like, janet obliges many new highs ahead

Christian Gustafson said...

Or the DJIA loses the 200 here and we go cliff-diving.

Bearish trendlines are all still out there!

Permabear Doomster said...

A move back into the mid 1900s was due.. and here we are.

Almost everyone seems to have lost perspective on what is going on.
--

Monthly cycles are STILL bearish. Unless we put in a few daily closes >1970... this is a bounce to be treated as such.

As Mr Carboni would agree.. stops are IN, for anyone looking to launch a re-short.

Christian Gustafson said...

You got it, Doomie.

Either new highs per a blow-off move into FOMC in this tight little channel, or -- surprise! -- we carrom off some trendline and plumb the depths.

T.Berry said...

careful shorting a multi-year secular bull. as zirp continues so does snp 2400 next year

Permabear Doomster said...

re: careful shorting a multi-year secular bull
-

That policy was 100% correct until the break of sp'1900.

THAT break.. and the bigger monthly cycles turning negative..is why I would argue that policy no longer applies.
-

My line is sp'1970s... if market breaks/holds above there.. then... your policy is back.

Next week gonna be interesting.

T.Berry said...

that's a deal permabear! good wishes.

liking the follow through today.very impressive, secular showing its strength

Phat Repat said...

Alrighty then; overseas now and have dumped my SPY calls for significant profit. Here are the numbers (some variation after the open tomorrow):

Buy above 1933.95 with Stop 1911.02 no clear Target at the moment.

Sell below 1908.46/1902.29 with Stop 1925.18 and T1 forming around 1828.84

Hmmm...

Bicycle said...

Updated megaphone. Dow 17400-500 on deck now, it's a simple +4% move away. The nested megaphones are a stronger magnet to the top now than all other technicals.

Bicycle said...

What hell lies in wait for us on the other side of this pattern?

Christian Gustafson said...

1074 SPX

Bicycle said...

I guess I mean geopolitically. Or maybe geologically, with a first wave down like that.

Bicycle said...

Partial solar eclipse in North America tonight.

Bicycle said...

Chesapeake withdrawing its IPO? Here it comes....

Phat Repat said...

So, will market go up for FED meeting and gold get hammered? Maybe this time is different; or not. ;-)

Bicycle, what's your thought on that IPO cancel?

Bicycle said...

They were trying to IPO their oilfield services to raise cash. Read: desperation; we all know that the shale industry is levered out its ass on top of outrageous predictions of production that will never happen. They were not discounting the IPO. The recent crude price collapse clearly slammed the door shut.

Oil producers need credit in large amounts these days to produce oil... this is proving that they cannot raise it through the equity markets anymore... that is big trouble and confirm's a lot of doomer thesis that production shortages are imminent.

The "shale miracle" is ending, the worst of the bunch can't get credit to produce anymore.

No oil production growth, no monetary inflation. This a direct and predictable result of the Fed cutting off the spigot... and the Fed has to know this too... which means their own data was showing them at least a year ago that the shale oil production fiasco was going to blow up in their face anyways.

Epic deflation is dead ahead. The Fed has chosen the path forward, and it is conservation. It is the same reason they will be raising rates as they know they are going to have to cut consumption... period.

Phat Repat said...

Thanks Bicycle, that seems reasonable to me. Though after all the financial rigging, it's hard to believe they will just let it go the deflationary route.

Having said that, I believe there will be two types of outcomes: The things you OWN will go down in price while the things you NEED will go up; and rather dramatically in both cases.

Time tells all...

Bicycle said...

The things most people own will be completely illiquid (for a while).

Nominal prices will fall with demand collapse. Unfortunately, income will fall much more substantially. Things that are cheaper in nominal terms will become unaffordable with slashed incomes and the inability to liquidate assets.

Phat Repat said...

So a side observation from what Bicycle has put forth is that "cash is King"; at least for a short period of time.

What other assets, if any, could survive this deluge?

Christian Gustafson said...

Analog books, sir. Start stackin'.

Phat Repat said...

CG; I had you pegged as an optimist. ;-)

Bicycle said...

Dumped almost all remaining longs this morning, seemed as safe a place as any incase we have an early failure running at new ATHs.

Christian Gustafson said...

The VIX, she looks like she is throwing in the towel.

12-handle imminent?

Bicycle said...

At this rate, could we put in a new ATH top... this week???!!!

All in short on Halloween and hold thru the weekend! What a time to be alive!

Bryan Franco said...

I think the ATH closing high is about 2011. All we need to do is close above that level. Don't need an intraday high.

T.Berry said...

"My line is sp'1970s... if market breaks/holds above there.. then... your policy is back."

they almost made look easy permabear. what is most impressive is it came on the day after qe ended. proof qe had little to do with stocks going higher?

new ath's coming. when?

Christian Gustafson said...

Upper edge of the megaphone I had been tracking is 2038 SPX by EOD Thursday.

The lower bound, the line connecting the 1904 and 1820 lows, is right at 1750 SPX on December 10th, a Bradley turn.

Unless it gets really nasty.

Bryan Franco said...

CG - Your megaphone would have to be in "shape only", not elliott wave pattern. This is because it is technically a triangle which is corrective. If it was a true Elliott Megaphone, then the E wave would take us to your mid-1970s with still new ATHs.

Christian Gustafson said...

VIX the tell this morning when it gapped through support.

Now headed to a 12-handle.

pb said...

This ain't going down, if it ever does I'm starting to wonder, until after the mid-term elections. It may blast off
until then -

Permabear Doomster said...

Berry 'what is most impressive is it came on the day after qe ended. proof qe had little to do with stocks going higher?'
-

Now that is just plain stupid.

So... we went up across the last 9 days.. and that means - at least to you, that QE was of no consequence across the last few years.

Jeez, seems almost everyone has lost perspective.

Phat Repat said...

I haven't had the chance to focus on the markets due to the time difference and the project I am working.

That being said, even though my system numbers are supportive and have shown targets as high as 2045 (and higher, though less likely), this move has an almost surreal feel to it. Very few of the economic data are supportive so one has to surmise that, in the short term, the magic hand of Fed levitation is at work. A last hurrah? Maybe, maybe not.

Since the markets are open during my sleepy time, I will pass other than to run the numbers, grouch of missed opportunities, and be prepared for when I return stateside.

T.Berry said...

was asking question permabear. been reading for many months how ending qe would tank market---didn't happen. fed began taper in january and market since hit many new all time highs. what if at year end we're higher months after qe ends?