Friday, April 18, 2014

Charts 04-18: Good chance of a fierce selloff next week

NDX and the RUT visited their respective 200 DMAs this week, and I think the SPX could do the same next week, into the next Bradley turn date (a low).  We never did get that last blast of savage panic selling in the recent cycle.  We would bounce off this low to put in a final high.

SPX 04-18

A final thrust up remains on the chart, into mid-May.

SPX 04-18 1Y

Which sets up a fall crash back to 1040 SPX.  There's a 3 Peaks and a Domed House count in here somewhere.

SPX 04-18 3Y

Good luck in the markets next week.  I am heading down to the Arizona to hike the Bright Angel trail in Grand Canyon NP with my dear old mom.


Permabear Doomster said...

The weekly candles for the R2K and Nasdaq are clear spike-floor ones, which is particularly bullish.

Bears had their chance to hold the market under the 50 day MA of 1840s, and failed.

Bulls are back...for a few weeks.

Enjoy ARZ.

Rajeev Shah said...

TNX been range bound between 2.6-2.8% for risk off/on trigger respectively. Maybe TNX is sideways wave B as we'll.

Christian Gustafson said...

Yes, Rajeev, re the TNX. Pretty good so far, considering the S&P probably has not found its final top in all of this.

What the 10Y has not done is hit that mid-3% range everyone had been talking about for months, that we were going to experience inflation or growth or some kind of normal "recovery".

They all so desperately want it to be so.

China's credit crunch-in-progress points the way; the future is deflation.

Bicycle said...

Here's a light read for a Sunday evening:

T.Berry said...

very nice reading bicycle. took a liking to the snp's chart 2600. your 2300 looks good friend.

Bicycle said...

My personal take-away from that was not any projected value of the S&P, but rather the analysis of the bubble in corporate debt--and especially as it relates to interest rates.

That gives us the possibility of stunningly high unemployment when this comes apart. You will have a corporate sector that has its balance sheets pressured to cut payroll significantly, and a public sector that is forced to cut payroll in order to continue borrowing.

We could easily see a 30% U-6 number. And that doesn't take into account people that will lose their job and then pick up another one (at a sharply lower salary), staying out of the unemployment data. Almost half of the people you know could lose their current job.

We won't see 2600 this bubble. We'll probably barely see 2300, if 2200. 2600 (and beyond) only comes after 210, first. And perhaps rapidly so, in a currency collapse, when it won't matter anyways. You'll want land, water, blueberry bushes and helping hands instead.