Yes, new highs are ahead -- I like 1918 SPX in mid-May.
But take a look at the tape for the past week and get used to what a no-bid market looks like. Sure, it's the shitty beta momo stocks getting hit now, but this is what will happen to the broader market later this year.
We should head a bit lower this week, to trendline support in the 1790s, after we fake north on Monday and early Tuesday. I'm looking for a bottom just after the April Full Moon, followed by a sharp rally.
We are entering a period of numerous turn dates, both Bradley turns (if you believe in these things) and even a McHugh phi mate turn next month. The last Bradley turn, April 6, was a direct hit.
About that "fall crash" -- here's the problem. If we are indeed in an ending-diagonal pattern, with one more good rally ahead of us, then the completion of the rally, the reaction from it, will quickly retrace us back to the
The retrace from this steep drop sets us up for a panic plummet hellish historic meltdown in the fall, all the way back to the 1000s SPX. It would key off the September FOMC.
|SPX 04-11 3Y|
Should this play out, I think I will exit the markets after November. They will go lower, I believe, all the way down to the trendline between the 2002 and 2009 lows, but I don't know if I wish to trade that late cycle.
I will be more interested in finding good farmland in western WA and securing the safety of my extended family (solid Chicago Czechs) in early 2015.