Sunday, March 16, 2014

Charts 03-16: All my counts are crappy

There is a full moon tonight, suggesting a bottom here and a rally through March opex.  Next weekend has the equinox and a Bradley turn date, so I would be happy to see the market rally all week, possibly get as high as 1910 on the SPX.

I did my annual walk to my mother-in-law's house in Everett today, this time in continual rain.  I enjoy the rain in the PNW, especially after getting religion and embracing Ray Jardine's hiking umbrella over a decade ago.  Ray is a Great Man of History and can do anything he likes as far as I am concerned.  It was interesting to see how the heavy rain was managed by all of the catch basins and pools strewn across horrid Lynnwood, WA.

Each year I vary the route a little in an attempt to perfect it.  The most linear route would be a straight run up highway 99, but that route is dirty and noisy and dangerous for its lack of sidewalks.  The heavy traffic there makes it difficult to listen to Kunstler's latest podcast (he's back!) with Chas Hughes Smith on the Deep State.  So I have strung together a route from Seattle to Everett that is is quite relaxing.

I did an end-run around Paine Field and the Boeing plant this year that took me past something novel, a Goodwill "Outlet Store".  I went inside and was shocked.

Goodwill Outlet Store

In a Goodwill Outlet Store, the detritus of our Waste-Based society is batched up in blue bins and sold by the pound.  For example, it's 49 cents per pound for household items.

blue bins and price-by-weight
more crap

This is actually a pretty decent way to get something like a Christmas tree stand or a frying pan; the thift-store junkie in me certainly saw the treasure-finding potential here.  But mostly I was just depressed to see such an array of crap and to realize how much more the Goodwills and Value Villages churn through.  Unwanted clothes are likely baled-up and sent to Liberia or the Congo.  As for the rest, who knows.  I saw lots of full shopping carts here.

The drop this week won't look impulsive until we get one of those 90%+ panic sell-off days, so the odds are here for one more rally up.  Maybe we will even get a Hindenburg Omen or two, that would be swell.  My count is awful because of all of the overlapping in the central waves.  If I were more clever, I would tag WXYs all over it and try to sell that crap to you.  But counting the move down, so far, as impulsive looks even worse.  Let the Full Moon do its important work overnight.

SPX 03-14 -- a tragic mess

SPX 03-14 6M


Bryan Franco said...

CG - I can certainly live with 5 or a 5f underway, but I am curious about what you have labelled as 3. I didn't know that the entire part of Wave 3 can be in the shape of a diagonal?

Christian Gustafson said...

Of course not. That's why I call it out as a chart atrocity and general mess.

But if you ignore the overlaps, the different sets of waves actually fit together pretty well.

Even as flawed as this is, I think it looks more plausible than the latest tired "leading diagonal" counts I have seen elsewhere. Ugh.

Bicycle said...

Vlad is now outing a heretofore unknown NSA HQ in my town. This is getting good!

The complete restoration of Lorado Taft's "Alma Mater" is supposed to be done by graduation this spring. Just in time to get nuked!!!

If you don't hear from me again, the Russians DDoS'd my internet...

T.Berry said...

upped equity position to 60% from 40%,,,,mkt continues to look terribly strong,,,,sorry to say i've thrown in the "cg's snp to 1636" towel! no offense cg! now in bicycles snp's to 2250 camp

Permabear Doomster said...

Alibaba is coming...

If new highs >1883 this week, I'll probably hold off until late April.

RE: blue boxes

Thoroughly depressing, those boxes could tell a thousand stories of households that have imploded.

Christian Gustafson said...

Well Doomie, I hope I am helping you savor the American flavor here.