Monday, October 7, 2013

Charts 10-07: Bradley turn eve

The last Bradley turn, June 22, marked an important low.  My target for tomorrow is SPX 1663 and change.  a of 4 == c of 4 @ 1663.81.

SPX 10-07

Larger view of the ending-diagonal in the works here, plus a suggestion of a violent, volatile market to follow.  If we count the collapse to SPX 570 as an ABC, wave 1 of A should complete into the December FOMC.

SPX 10-07 6M


Bryan Franco said...

Well we are there as I type - 1663! Now, though no one has made money anticipating a failure (the low probability scenario), do you, nevertheless, have a probability in mind for the possibility that wave 5 of your diagonal truncates? I only speculate because, my gosh, look at the DOW. It doesn't look 'well'.

Christian Gustafson said...

For a little bit we hung there with LOD at 1663.80, .01 off my estimate. After a few minutes we sliced lower to 1661.

Never a dull moment.

Bryan Franco said...

Do deeper wave 4 retracements increase the likelihood of wave 5 failures?

Permabear Doomster said...

Now we're going up?

How we going to rally until an agreement is reached (which doesn't seem likely for another 5-7 trading days).

Dow just broke the august low..and looks set for 14k or so...which would be sp'1600/1590, with VIX 25/27

ps. can't you get Disqus installed here? Those image capcha things are the most challenging part of my day. I have to use mag' setting 10 on firefox just to make a guess on the number!


Christian Gustafson said...

Hey Doomster!

The E-D is still alive on the SPX -- with an important caveat. This morning's new lows takes 1750+ off the table on this wave count, or else wave 3 will be the shortest.

Draw the TL through the 1709 and 1729 highs, and it points to SPX 1747 on November 1st. That's my new target, with USA fedgov bills coming due and a New Moon / Bradley turn that weekend.

DJIA? I don't chart that dirty thing, but I would wager that if SPX makes the 1747 high, that DJIA will draw a nice megaphone top.

Will post charts tonight explaining all this.