Watch the upper Bollinger on the S&P 500

I've been watching it for weeks, and now we are in hot pursuit of the top Bollinger Band on the daily S&P 500.  It's up at 2089 today, rising at 5-6 points/day.

Let's catch it next week, and hit that pink top trendline.  Maybe that will be our point #23 on the 3PDH supermodel, at long last.

SPX ending-diagonal count

Gold to $600?

Sure, why not.  Simple count, not an impulsive structure.  ABC's so far on this one.

/GC weekly

 A few minor tunings and adjustments to the 3PDH that rules my world, too.

SPX 3PDH

Charts 02-09: Stretching things out

I don't feel any sense of urgency at this juncture, certainly not to put on any shorts just yet.  Wednesday has a Bradley turn date on the classic model that may time well with a bottom; I'll consider taking a small long with February calls on it.  A little dash of Euro-hope and some fresh USD-JPY carnage can still power us to new highs.

SPX 02-09 60D

I still think that any Elliott count considering 2093 as the final high and the start of a "wave 1" impulse down is foolish and defective.  The awful blogger Daneric continues to push this count, because his analysis is lazy and sloppy and ultimately deceptive and fatal to his readers.  He may actually be some sort of market shill selling puts to the permabears, I dunno.  How are those SPY 195 puts working out for you guys, huh?  Wave 3 down any day now ...

Stretching the larger 3PDH model out a bit across 2015, with a final low at our point #10 target at 1074 SPX in November, which works on so many levels.  The specific turns in this chart are mostly Bradley turn dates based on the classic model.  The largest leg, the crash leg back to 1074 SPX, lands squarely in the Fall crash season. 

SPX 02-09 3PDH model

This entire move back to 1074 SPX counts as "A", with a big bounce "B" into early 2016 and a final destructive "C" to wrap it all up.  We have established important levels of support at 1972, 1820, and 1560 SPX.  This model has us reaching each level and bouncing just enough to kissback the previous channel or support trendline.  Once we get a final high with that Bollinger Band touch and all of the other good stuff, I plan to trade this model both short and long.

Looking for a final high around February opex.  Gotta eat the last of the puts and run the VIX down a bit more.

One more thing.  Speculating about when the Fed will start hiking rates (June FOMC?), has us inevitably looking at the 13-week T-bill for any clues.  The Fed follows the market, right?

If we look at a very long-term Yahoo! chart of ^IRX, we see that it has been flatlined throughout the whole ZIRP experiment, but that RSI has been very slowly building over time.  So what will happen if the RSI for ^IRX breaks out over .5?  Will this see a breakout spike in short-term rates, and a commensurate move by our Fed masters?  I think so.

13-week Treasury Bill

The question is what happens after SPX 1560

You see, a bounce at that support level sets us up for a particularly nasty head-and-shoulders, one for all-time, a true classic, epic fail.

SPX 02-02

The upper Bollinger Band on the SPX has come in about 50 handles(!) over the past couple of weeks, which for me is the one last requirement I had before expecting any kind of significant top out of this.

Our next visit to the 2064 SPX level will be met with particularly fierce resistance.

Checking the candles, we could even gap down over night off this level.  It would form an "island top" pattern with a similar gap UP we experienced back in November.