I don't know if we'll put in a new low under 1925 SPX this morning, but I'd like to see us close the week at 1948. This will clear the table of the 195 SPY puts I should have held on to ... grrr ... oh well, plenty of good trades ahead.
A lower trendline from the waves already in place takes us to 1233 SPX by the end of January. The Fed will accomodate, you better betcha, and we will bounce 300 handles back up (.382 retrace) into the Spring.
But first for the crash call. Big picture with the bear trendline and surprise support from a triangle from 2011.
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| SPX 10-09 4Y |
It starts this fall with a series of breathtaking drops to key support levels: 1814, 1737, 1560. The crash leg in January kicks off right after Christmas on the 12/26 Bradley turn, as everyone tries to secure year-end profits. This quickly gets out of hand! ONOZ OMG ...
Bounces are typically .382 of a previous larger leg, and they also correspond to corrections we experienced on the way up this thing. Yes, these are all 3PDH numbers as well, you know the drill.
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| SPX 10-09 6M |
Short-term -- I'd like to see that close at SPX 1948 today. We can make it as high as 1962 into Monday if there is a B-wave triangle playing out here.
The question re the drop from 2019 to 1926, whether it counts as a 5-wave impulse or not, is moot. Call it "A" and be done with it.
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| SPX 10-09 |
First important support is at 1814 SPX just after October opex.
