Value Village score on Saturday

Market-permabears need to remember that we could still run all the way up to the top trendline of the ending-diagonal off the October 2014 lows, i.e. a blow-off target well above 2140 on the S&P.  Extreme caution is advised, as early means dead for aggressive positions.

Reader Bicycle thinks we're on the verge of a violent reversal.  I think the market may still be on ice for a few more weeks, working out a "5th of a 5th" grind, while long-term indicators (monthlies) setup for the final top.  There's the Greek payment to the ECB in mid-July.  3.5B Euro is pocket-lint in American QE terms, so there must be a real reason that we are quibbling over these debt matters for the subprime nations of Europe.  A cynic would say the whole effort is a sick pageant to draw in and eat any bears stupid to play it short here, anywhere.

market on ice until it's not

I did manage to win big at the Value Village lottery this past Saturday.  Some good soul donated a slew of Grosset & Dunlap biographies for young readers from the early 1950s.  I snagged them all, at the cost of $1.25 each.  All in fine shape with good DJs -- I'll get Brodarts on these ASAP.

Chart 07-08: Gott mit uns

The mighty German victory today in the World Cup semifinal actually foreshadows the future of the BRICs -- sneaky how the financiers pull this off -- but tonight we can cheer them for a fine show of sport.  I'd like to see them face their neighbors, those serious guys in orange.

It's all a clever dress rehearsal for the end of the USA-UK financial domination of the ROW, a long cycle that has run its course.

We wish both the Germans and the Dutch well in the days ahead.

Last week I made a final visit to Wessel & Lieberman books in Pioneer Square to pick up the ed of Rousseau I have had on my mind for a long time.  It's gorgeous of course, and now safe here with me.

J-J Rousseau Confessions, 1928 Brentano ed, tr. Mallory 

They are shutting down and are liquidating the remaining books, including their online store.  They will be missed.

I found a particularly nice solid wood bookcase at the Value Village thrift store in my neighborhood, a real score for a mere $20.  A $3 coupon from an item donation made it even cheaper.  I stocked it with a slew of good children's books, particularly heavy in the Grosset & Dunlap.

Children's library of classics and sci-fi

This is part of a much larger library of books to get my kids through their teenage years.  They are just now starting to understand how this is theirs to explore and enjoy, what a fine thing it is to be surrounded by books.  They get it.

In the markets, at this point we are just on-hold, waiting for the Bradley model turn date next week.  The current channel in SPX should take us up somewhere between 1990 and 2000 -- they simply have to take a shot at it, right?

SPX 07-08

There are plenty of data out next week, including (for what it's worth) Chinese GDP and industrial data, and, of course, U.S. earnings soon.

I'm still on-board for the "double-nested Three Peaks and a Domed House" model.  One theory I am proposing with these charts is that -- finally -- FOMC releases may start being profoundly market-negative events, as continued tapering and eventually a rate hike (April 2015?) do their work.

SPX 07-08 1Y

After January, a relief rally into the end of April.

SPX 07-08 5Y

UVXY bottoms around $20 next week?

UVXY 07-08 6M

Nothing much to do IMO until we are closer to the turn, complete a wave up, and maybe even make that low on the VIX and her ETFs.

This week in thrift-store books

I continue to find quality books at Goodwill and Value Village, books overlooked and unwanted by the public.  My goal is to accumulate these treasures while they are still available.  Before TSHTF, I am stackin' ... books.

Here's what I found this week.

I had some time to kill while waiting to pick up my daughter from a birthday party in Ballard, so I dropped in the Goodwill at 65th and 8th NW.  Good thing I did, because I stumbled across someone's old collection of Grosset & Dunlap books, of which I am an avid collector.

G & D, "The Story of" series

These date to the late 1950s and early 1960s, and are in excellent condition, with dust-jackets.  I need to order some more vinyl jacket covers from Demco soon (I order batches of 100).  Sometimes bibliophiles call these jacket protectors "Brodarts," but I don't order from them because Demco has them whipped on prices.

more "The Story of" series 

These will look great with protective sleeves on the jackets.  I would have been pleased enough to find these, but also found six books in the "We Were There" series from Grosset & Dunlap.  These are historical accounts where the author weaves a story involving a couple of kids into an event, to help explain it to the reader.  An historical consultant keeps the narrative honest.

G & D "We Were There" series

I'm kinda curious to see how the author gets two kids out in Bataan, and whether they are bayonetted at some point by the vicious Japanese, their frail bodies dumped by the side of the road.

more "We Were There" series

Value Village had this from Rodale Press, could be useful.

Rodale Press, Growing & Using Healing Herbs

And so could this:

The Chronicles of Amber

Value Village had this book, the first of a series meant to accompany and update the Great Books of Western Civilization produced by Britannica and the University of Chicago, Mortimer Adler's grand project.  Once in a while I see a Great Books series or individual volumes at thrift stores, even though I don't have a set or much interest in owning one.  My library has plenty of classics and overlap with the set, and professor Allan Bloom used to make fun of the translations used for these books.

The Great Ideas Today, 1961

I bought this because it contains a length essay by an old friend of mine, the late professor Edward Shils of the Committee on Social Thought at Chicago.  In his essay, in the inaugural edition of this series, he summarizes the condition of the social sciences and the world in general in 1961.  As soon as I started reading it, I realized that this was an amazing time capsule, which deserves further study.  Shils's writing here is like a letter from another planet, and I'll give it a good read and post more about it up here.

Deflation Land trivia -- my comments on charts are always in green text, a secret nod to Shils.  Anyone who has been his student understands why.

Kids' books: Grosset & Dunlap

If you drink your Dmitri Orlov straight-up, and also happen to have young children, you need to give some thought to the idea that you may have to take control of the means of production for educating them yourself.  As we cycle through the stages of financial, commercial, economic, and political collapse, well, you can't expect that the free public government school system will remain intact, can you?

If you're not already home-schooling your children, an important part of your preps is books and other educational materials for the future.  We are happy so far with our local soviet in the Seattle Public Schools, and are looking forward to see how our first child does in their accelerated program.  So far, so good, but I can't assume that things will continue as they are through catabolic collapse, now, can I?

While everyone is distracted with iPads and game consoles and a million flattering distractions for their vacant kids, the smart money is in analog books, the classics.  These are ignored for now, but will be in serious short supply when things fall apart and the centre cannot hold.  Even if you aren't a pessimist perma-doomer like myself, you should still have many of these books in your library as part of your status as a civilized man, one who would raise civilized children and offer them to the world.

This is the first in a series of posts about the childrens' library I have managed to cobble together, from used bookstores, Goodwill, and Value Village thrift stores.  If you know books, and are persistent, it is truly amazing what you can accomplish.  I still prefer the thrill of the chase, the lifelong habit and effort of combing through old bookshops and other outlets.  You probably could assemble a set like this with a debit card and a long night on AbeBooks.com, but it just wouldn't be the same now, would it?  AbeBooks is a great resource, but it should be used for filling in critical gaps in a collection; it is simply not sporting to dial it up and order your entire library.

So let's start with one of my favorites, Grosset & Dunlap.  These guys did some fantastic work in the mid-20th Century with the Illustrated Junior Library, quality hardcover editions, well-edited, graced by fine illustrations.  You Boomers cut your teeth on this and you were lucky for it.  

Less known are the How And Why Wonder Books, which I've been snatching up in the thrift stores, and the We Were There series that I've just started collecting.  We have a stack of Nancy Drew books as well, but they're really not worth blogging about.

Grosset & Dunlap published serious, well-made books for young adults.  They are a staple of any Kids' Library.  Hoard them!  Hoard them now!

Some core classics

More classics

Horse stories!  Dog stories!

We Were There ... series

How And Why Wonder Books

More How And Why Wonder books, great stuff

Fun fun fun, kids love these