Thursday, November 19, 2020

Now we cross the rally channel

Support is at about 2960 on the low edge of the rally channel, at the Full Moon at the end of November.

1970s State Street, Chicago

The next panic phase comes around the December 8th "Safe Harbor" deadline, ending when the Fed meets mid-month and is friendly again.  Trump will win; actually, he already has.

Q1 2021 is an epic disaster as all the idled mortgages and rents are due again, and the can can't be kicked.  We can easily reach a 3-digit S&P 500 by the end of February.

S&P 500 crossing the megaphone



christiangustafson said...

The geometry of the 2008 plunge is as beautiful as ever.

Kirk said...

"Trump will win; actually, he already has." Are you sure?

Bryan Franco said...

PredictIt currently shows a 9% probability of winning. That is orders of magnitude higher than a black swan event. The relevant question for market interpreters is, what does a surprise Trump win entail?

Kevin said...

Tom McClellan showed a chart that shows a new President first term generally sees a rally for one month post election that marks the peak for the following 18 months or so, leading to a stair-step down. When the incumbent wins a second term it's the opposite, where an initial drop is followed by 18 months or so of ever-rising rally.

For Trump to have a chance of winning, he would need the DOJ, or FBI, to announce they have been aware of election fraud going into the election, and have been tracking the "who" and the "how," and start arresting people and confiscating their computers. Maybe that's why we haven't heard from John Durham. Maybe he got wind of election fraud and his mission got diverted.

Whether Trump wins or Biden does its only a matter of time before the progressing start rioting in the streets again, as the door to that revolution is impossible to close. Rioting and burning cities is what drives down the stock market, as the economy shrinks, and the hard left don't see money landing on their lawn as promised.

T.Berry said...

from a mkt perspective, doesn't matter who's president, stocks are going higher well into 2021 and beyond. i'm leaning towards jpm's call for 4,500 next year and most definitely an overshoot beyond 5000 into 2022 (dow 40k in 2022?) . new bull mkts last years not months.....don't see a bear for the foreseeable future (2-4+ years). if you have a 2/3 year time horizon, the coast is clear imv.....

ytd in 2020
naz up 34%
rus up 40%
s&p up 15%
dow up 6%

--not bad for a pandemic year but i believe both the s&p and dow will perform much better next year than in 2020. the s&p is now just a mere 10% from 4,000----a very easy 2021 target

this is best november ever for the dow---its up over 3,600 and we still have a few days left.. either way it will be a record november....

good luck all, enjoy the ride it's not over.

T.Berry said...

trumpy bear can't take credit for the 10% rally since the 3rd. this is joes rally. : )