Tuesday, July 28, 2020

If we lose this channel

Where do we go next?

Chicago 1979

Here's the channel; we closed outside it today, with a Fed meeting tomorrow to keep things interesting.

S&P 500 hourly, LOG scale

Once we are back inside the giant pink megaphone, I don't think it will take much to trip us up and drop us back to 2140 on the S&P 500 for 1 of C down.

S&P 500 suggesting C is close

3 of C is a September-October affair, targeting the 1000 level, kicking off right after Labor Day.


christiangustafson said...

The bottom line of the pink megaphone is now drawn off the 2 prior lows; it has a slope comparable to the top line.

Recent chart candles showed that the tape is still verrry aware of the pink megaphone, so it should govern the movement of prices until we break down out of it in 3 of C after Labor Day.

christiangustafson said...

Lots of buzz overseas about this expert-produced 3 Gorges Dam simulation.

Kevin said...

Stocks positioning for the upcoming election would argue for the lower support zone to be hit prior to the election. And given the depressioary data going forward, one would expect that to be the opening move of a grander collapse, as your wave counting suggests.

The bull case is we have another year or so of rally to go to complete the seven year cycle, which has a very strong track record. How that is possible fundamentally seems impossible to me, but stocks go where money pushes it, and this new breed of speculators could very well lever up and go for it once stocks hit new highs and the election is behind.

That would leave the bull count as wave 1 at the June peak, then A and now B completing, and C of 2 underway to where your first support lies.

The difference, of course, is one buys as the SP completes five waves down to 2900-3000 level (five waves complete more important than any SP number,) while in the bear case an expected rally following those five waves soon falters and we crash back to the March lows.

Following the trend remains the optimal approach, which means up for now, but that likely changes soon.