Monday, March 2, 2020

If this local count is on, things are about to get really bad


I think most wave counters probably think the 2854 low on Friday was the fifth of a first wave down.



There will be hell to pay if the first wave actually ended at 3007, and the power-dive to 2854 on Friday was an irregular B of 2.


S&P 500 5-min, irregular B wave in the W2 correction

The thrust towards the close today took us to about 3090 -- the underside of the topline of the giant Jaws of Death megaphone.  If we kissed it back and reject it we are headed down in a free-fall.


Jaws of Death top with throwover


9 comments:

christiangustafson said...

This sort of evil headfake would catch just about everyone off guard, the sort of thing you see in the big turns.

christiangustafson said...

i.e. we're at 2317 by next Tuesday.

Alex said...

It’s a battlefield today with the rate cut. We’re straddling the top of the megaphone, and I have no idea which way it ends up. I’m just left wondering, was today the equivalent of Hank Paulson’s bazooka moment?

christiangustafson said...

yes

Kevin said...

I have this rally as the A wave of an A-B-C advance, which should end soon. Then we do a partial retrace of yesterday's advance (B), before we rally higher than today, maybe near SP 3200 (in C). Then we break below last week's low, as either a bigger C wave to complete Wave 4 (thus SP melt-up bull resumes.) Or we crash in a 1929-style third wave targeting sub SP 2000, and ultimately SP 1500, and then SP 600 to end bear. Either way, SP 3200 should be great spot to get ready for the big test below last week's lows.

ik said...

Didn't Gary Schilling insist the 30 year bond would go under 1% ? Sure as hell is close now.

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