Sic transit gloria mundi
"Power is not a bad thing to have in excess." -- Mark Twight
melt-up into year end ? or not? either way '19 has been one for the record books. s&p having the 2nd best year in the past 16 up 24.8% ytd with 5 weeks to go.the dow is now just a mere 6% from 30,000 (next year for sure) and if the nasdaq performs half as good as it did this year, 10,000 (only 15% to go) is could be in the cards for 2020 as well. as long as the economy continues to sizzle i believe this bull isn't slowing down for quite a while. still in the camp, no recession before 2023. setting low expectation for 2020 10-12% (since 1952 the ave return during election years is 10.1%)
So what is your opinion now that the market continues still higher? Typically we don't see crashes the size you depict without an initial topping process under the ath which could still take months. Maybe your view is correct but one year too soon?
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