Sunday, July 7, 2019

Are we there yet? Are we there yet?

Friendly reminder: Deutsche Bank is on fire, and the Fed is still tightening its quantitative.



Something has got to give -- faster than expected, and more severe.

SPX daily

10 comments:

christiangustafson said...

We want to be that man, in your happy pool during the flood.

Randall Beehomes said...

Indeed

Prechter said...

hey CG,

That happy hick is going to drown in the flood that is coming!

You are going to need Noah's Ark for what is coming!! :)

Lady S said...

We have to see lewer lew

Depriv said...

As I trade this there are two possible count now.

http://keptarhely.eu/view.php?file=20190716v00qp4bd3.png

The basis is the same for both. The extended third wave means, that the first and the fifth likely will be the same: in time OR in size.

If it'll be about the former, then we are indeed nearing the top: maybe we are within the +-20 point range already. For this kind big picture, that's already 'on point'.

If it is the letter, then the bull momentum will last for the next 15-16 months and the price might mear the 4k range (on SP).

As of now, I have absolutely no idea which way will this go.

Kevin said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Kevin said...

With the indexes testing the breakout lines, reluctant traders have a decision to make here. Either they buy (more) and risk having to take a loss if the sell-off continues, or they risk having to follow the bears into panic buying as the indexes rally to new highs once again to deliver the breakout for real. My strategy says doing the former is a better approach (for those who have a ton of cash.) This will end badly - as all blow off rallies do - though that could be later this fall (1987 repeat,) after next year (1999 repeat,) or three or five years from now (1995 repeat.) As the great Marty Zweig put it: don't fight the trend, don't fight the FED. My addition to that is don't fight the trend, don't fight the FED, unless the trend is fighting the FED, then OK to fight the FED. Central banks have bought all the bonds there is to buy, so expect them to buy stocks next.

christiangustafson said...

/ES looks very dangerous tonight.

We are back-testing the channel we left late in the session Friday. Lotsa air below us.

T.Berry said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
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