The halfway-back level for the rally since Christmas is 2650. We could test this area this week, and the reaction from that test determines whether or not we finish the giant megaphone (McHugh's "Jaws of Death") pattern we have been in since the January 2018 highs.
The 2650 area is decision time, where we either find support, and make it to the promised land over 3K on the S&P, or we bomb down to 2250 or so into June FOMC, and monetary policy gets involved.
I'll take either outcome, and I don't mind the higher high, because that only gives us more to short when the final reckoning comes at last. There is a fib extension target around 3025 SPX along the top of the megaphone in mid-July. Before then we will have the June FOMC and a G-20 meeting in late June that could fluff the markets to get us there.
The restrained $VIX and weirdly buoyant $JNK and $HYG ETFs are telling us that we are just not yet in panic/crisis/liquidation mode.
We are patient as always.
| Broadening wedge top, where (E) touches the top |
5 comments:
btw, the leg from 3025 to 2220 from mid-July to late August is drawn this way because it has identical slope to prior declines, the impulse legs of earlier dives.
I contend that this is how we decline now, in this leveraged-up environment.
Dingle Terry nowhere to be found.
Noticing same sort of complacency from JNK and VIX. Both clearly benefit from Fed to the Rescue chatter. 30 year yield down from 3.5% to 2.5% ish since October! Wow.
Agreed. I dumped my morbid TVIX today. Green, sure, but not going anywhere.
Let us pray for a mid-channel, mid-July top, lads.
... Ma and Pa are not going to be happy about lower nominal money market rates. Are there political implications ?
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