Run the trendline up from 666 through the 1810 low on a log10 daily chart. Q4 2018 is "A" down on our count, and we are finishing up "B".
| SPX daily, long-term rally channel |
When "B" completes, we will lose the rally channel and sell off again, to support at the trendline from prior lows, roughly 2280 by May opex:
| Support from prior lows |
"C" is a massive 5-wave impulse, with each leg lower ending on a Fed meeting, with promises of free stuff given out each time.
| SPX daily, 5-wave impulse lower |
The Fed then cuts rates at the September FOMC when we are right at urgent support, the bottom of the long-term channel, 1387 on the S&P 500.
| SPX weekly |
This rate cut will stanch the bleeding, and -- maybe -- get us through the 2020 election, on the next cycle B-wave. If we break down and out of the long-term channel, policy has failed and we are now in deflationary depression hell, complete with cascading debt-defaults and an S&P 500 of 500.
We've got through EOQ1 before the current B wave retrace equals "A" down from 2018 in time. April would be a 20% decline in equities.
76 comments:
Reminder: most USA corps are in a buyback blackout period during the month of April. They are the only ones buying stocks these days. This is how we can see a 20% decline in the space of a month.
Deflation Land friends and visitors -- need your prediction, please, for when the Fed will issue its first rate cut.
As chief permabear officer, I get first pick with SEPTEMBER, 2019.
Have at it, lads.
I think they will sit on their hands until we're well into a recession. 2020 is setting up nicely for the recession to officially begin. 2021 is looking pretty ominous from here.
Keep an eye on the 10-2 spread. I think we'll get a slight inversion later in the year.
Keystone Speculator has rightly pointed out that these wimpy Millennials have never seen a recession. They have no idea what it's like to lose a good job and have few if any prospects. I'm sure they will start moaning about muh communism after their unemployment checks run out.
CG,
First rate cut coming up on June 18 meeting!
If we get a big drop next couple weeks (very likely) they will be pushed by DT into doing it on May 1 :)
Stephen Moore forms a "New" Federal Reserve and lowers to 0 percent on April 1.
I go with June too!
"We will need some serious deterioration in breadth to get back down to 2350"
it's occurring...it doesn't happen all in one day... - rotrot | March 9, 2019 at 10:59 AM
it's occurring LOL ---s&p up 3.2% since that brilliant observation. - T. Berry | March 16, 2019 at 8:44 AM
______________________________________________________________________
BPSPX (S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index)
03/04/2019 - 73.80
03/15/2019 - 68.80
negative divergence on BPSPX...deterioration in breadth is occurring...it doesn't happen all in one day... - rotrot | March 17, 2019 at 12:37 PM
______________________________________________________________________
SPXA50 (S&P 500 Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average)
03/15/2019 -6.00 (-1.47%)
deterioration in breadth is occurring...it doesn't happen all in one day... - rotrot | March 17, 2019 at 1:05 PM
______________________________________________________________________
"there has never been a better time to be in the us stock market" - T. Berry | September 21, 2018 at 1:25 PM
https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=547276048038789798&postID=8842891158519807656
S&P 500 all-time-high is 2940.91...attained on September 21, 2018!
______________________________________________________________________
"zero doubt we'll see new highs. with the mkts just a mere 3% below all time highs" - T. Berry | March 15, 2019 at 9:47 AM
https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=547276048038789798&postID=7912099294630445551
2019 bullish or bearish rotrot?
breath had been signaling a change-in-trend was coming...it was confirmed on Friday...looking exclusively at price action is 'sheep' behavior...
"I'm starting to think the real bust will be 2021" ~ Hugh Jazole | March 14, 2019 at 7:57 AM
You didn't answer the question. Not sure why you keep posting that quote from me. Are you suggesting that the real bust will be 2019? A failed prediction about 2021 can only be deemed a failure in 2021. Go back and look at this blogs predictions in 2017, and compare them to ones I made in the comments.
I participate in a 'real' traders group that is off line (via email)...we have been rocking...you go back and read the posts at this blog...I could care less!
"A failed prediction about 2021 can only be deemed a failure in 2021" - Hugh Jazole | March 24, 2019 at 6:13 PM
Keep on rocking buddy!
The Fed sure is nervous if everything is kosher
"The Fed sure is nervous if everything is kosher" Everything is kosher Randall. A little predictive programming from 2016.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-yellen-purchases-idUSKCN11Z2WI
Why would they cut now? S&P is only about 5% or so off all time highs. We are def headed into a recession, but it could very well take a year+ before the yield inversion exacts its pound of flesh from the market. It's only the 10 and 3 month currently inverted right?
Did you guys notice that the S&P daily has an imminent Golden Cross?
Will it confirm and take us to new highs, or fail like the one we had EOY 2015?
It will be interesting to keep an eye on the June odds. I seriously doubt it will be that early. December sounds about right. QE in 2020?
A couple of quotes from the pros.
"Stock prices kept rising after each time the yield curve inverted, except for in 1973. In fact, the S&P 500 Index continued to grind higher for another 11 months, before it reached its peak. The S&P 500 Index climbed by roughly 8%, again on average, during that time."
"Cam Harvey, a Duke professor/pioneer researcher re: the yield curve, chats w/ Research Affiliates about Friday's arrival of an inverted curve. How long after inversion does a recession start? "In my research, the lag is usually 12 to 18 months."
I think that they'll cut. The jawboning will have to raise the market back up to for it to be effective and from what we've witnessed to far it hasn't been.
"Stephen Moore, who Donald Trump may nominate for a seat on the Federal Reserve Board, told the New York Times in an interview that the central bank should immediately reverse course and lower interest rates by half a percentage point."--Bloomberg reporting on NY Times interview
this is a public service message...listen to the March 26 interview with Stefanie Kammerman...reflect on the interview and then listen again...you will better understand how absurd it is to follow the 'know nothings' that have been identified as guru's on this public blog...further, it should reinforce an important fact...what people post on public blogs about their beliefs, expectations, or hopes doesn't mean squat...
https://www.forexanalytix.com/webinars?v=wvbFU_3jqME&feature=youtu.be
Are you guys ready to join the dark side or nah?
I am.
Between 1994 and 1996 there were seven rate hikes followed by three rate cuts. So a rate cut is not always "the ultimate sell signal."
IMO rate cuts will be buy-signals.
either way (cuts or increases) the market is going much higher. fed has been spot-on since 2009.
patience, new all time highs are on the horizon.
Yield curve inverted in September 1998 one year later, the S&P 500 was 37.90% higher.
very impressive follow through after finishing up the greatest quarter since 2009. s&p is already up 14% ytd, dow + 12%, nas +17%, and rus +15%. a years worth of returns in just 3 months.
with q1 earnings season coming up, it's possible we could be back to new all time record highs (s&p just a mere 2% below all time record high). we could see a quick 2-3% pullback before earnings start rolling in. if we do, it will be very short lived.
fundamentally, the market looks solid with zero reasons to sell.
Yes Dingle!. Things are so good the Fed can stay on hold forever.
fact: largest economic expansion in history been over 10 years
fact: largest and greatest bull market in history in year 11
fact: fed got it right this time
hey roxtrot, s&p up over 4% since march 8th. it's happening bruh LOL
"Just as the spider weaves his silky web, to lure flies into the larder of his banqueting hall in order that he may at his leisure, pick the flesh off their bones, so deceitful Ideals are cunningly woven by dexterous, political spiders, to capture and exploit swarms of human flies." - Ragnar Redbeard
mkts just a rounding error from new all time highs
Bubblelicious!
bubblelicious?
coming from someone calling for new all time record highs this year seems a bit odd.
The bubble is still inflating. New highs and then some before it pops.
S&P 500 all-time-high is 2940.91...attained on September 21, 2018!
"there has never been a better time to be in the us stock market"
~ T. Berry | September 21, 2018 at 1:25 PM
"zero doubt we'll see new highs. with the mkts just a mere 3% below all time highs"
~ T. Berry | March 15, 2019 at 9:47 AM
"patience, new all time highs are on the horizon"
~ T.Berry | March 31, 2019 at 5:50 PM
"fundamentally, the market looks solid with zero reasons to sell"
~ T.Berry | April 1, 2019 at 8:15 AM
"mkts just a rounding error from new all time highs"
~ T.Berry | April 1, 2019 at 4:37 PM
"I'm starting to think the real bust will be 2021"
~ Hugh Jazole | March 14, 2019 at 7:57 AM
"A failed prediction about 2021 can only be deemed a failure in 2021"
~ Hugh Jazole | March 24, 2019 at 6:13 PM
The bubble is still inflating. New highs and then some before it pops.
~ Hugh Jazole | April 2, 2019 at 1:59 PM
What's wrong with those quotes? Here's some really good ones.
rotrot said...
BPSPX (S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index)
03/04/2019 - 73.80
03/15/2019 - 68.80
negative divergence on BPSPX...deterioration in breadth is occurring...it doesn't happen all in one day...
rotrot said...
breath had been signaling a change-in-trend was coming...IT WAS CONFIRMED ON FRIDAY..looking exclusively at price action is 'sheep' behavior...
Breath? LMAO!
BPSPX (S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index)
03/04/2019 - 73.80
04/02/2019 - 71.60
negative divergence on BPSPX...deterioration in breadth is occurring...it doesn't happen all in one day...breath has been signaling a change-in-trend is coming...looking exclusively at price action is 'sheep' behavior...
I would never look exclusively at price action. It's just one piece of the puzzle. It appears to be deteriorating in the wrong direction.
T. Berry quick question for you:
Where would your precious market be without rates at historic lows along with endless unconventional QE? And why do you take such pleasure in the punishment of the prudent who understand the system and realize that now is actually the worst time to buy just about anything (stocks, houses, ect)? You are essentially a parasite sucking the blood out of todays young and futures generations and seem to take an immense amount of pleasure in it. Me thinks you could be a sociopath. The good of the whole or your own precocious retirement.
"You are essentially a parasite sucking the blood out of todays young and futures generations" Civilization has always looted posterity, it's the very nature of civilization. I would argue that parasitic behavior is also a hallmark of civilization. Good luck being a parasite in a primitive society.
"And why do you take such pleasure in the punishment of the prudent who understand the system and realize that now is actually the worst time to buy just about anything (stocks, houses, ect)?" It may be the worst time to buy and hold for the long term, but not necessarily for a year or so. Valuation and fundamentals have nothing to do with short/mid term stock prices. The nineties bull screamed higher for years with sky high valuations. It will end badly of course, but there may be a lot of money to be made in the interim.
Support @2280. Slope of the decline identical to previous impulses.
Let's get this party started.
hmm, Blogger done changed my display name for the commentage.
And no photo no longer.
I wager this has to do with Google's killing of the Google+ biz, and various changes and configurations around that.
Will check settings later and tweak as needed. Good luck to all deflationary doomer bearz.
i take no pleasure in the punishment of the prudent, i'm a long term stock investor (parasite? LOL) . i've said many times, buy, hold and price average in and you win 100% because the stock market always comes back had i listened to the "prudent" back when i came here in 2014 my portfolio value would pretty much be the same as then. given you've only been here for a month, go back to the archives and see how many times i was advised to sell as the market was going to crash. been hearing it for 6 years. there have been numerous "prudent" posters who have come and gone since 2014. i'm probably one of maybe 2 posters left.
hope to see you around when the s&p hits 4,000 : )
s&p is now up 5% (130 points) since rotrots "peak".
good work guru rotrot!
you earned the honor to be mentioned in the sames sentences as nenner & armstrong. lol
From: rotrot
To: TST
Sent: Saturday, October 27, 2018, 12:35:48 PM EDT
Subject: Friday, March 8, 2019...mark it on your calendar...
the bull market that began in 1974 has peaked...Friday, March 8, 2019 is a date you may want to mark on your calendar...
December 19, 2018 at 2:04 PM
beware of a quick shake-out before earnings season kicks off in about 10 trading days. if it happens (despite the strength of this bear market) it'll be quick.
Dingle always good at straw men. I live in a 1930 home. If I bought it new in 1930 and sold it today, was it a good investment because its worth more than I paid in 1930? Of course not necessarily. It's all relative. Bonds can outperform for decades. Cash can too. And either way, getting caught up in numbers vs real values is the sign of a sluggish IQ or perhaps inbreeding.
keep calling crashes randall LOL
you're bear market is lookin' good
Notice you deflect rather than answer. Sad
homes are to live in not trade like a stawk.
so what's the stawk market going to do next randall? crash? tia
BPSPX continues to "deteriorate."
T. Berry you didn't answer most of what i asked:
"Where would your precious market be without rates at historic lows along with endless unconventional QE?"
Why is it ok to steal from one group to inflate the returns of another? Do you think the market would be where it is right now without either of the two mentioned above? Also i've been reading deflationland since 2014, i have only recently began to comment. I disagreed with you then and i disagree with you now. You seem to take some joy in that you are a minority here, but it seems to me that people like you are the majority everywhere else. If they even pay attention.
not smart enough to know the answer trent, nor would i ever 2nd guess the fed----they have been 100% on with their monetary policy. since dec 2015 they've raised rates 8 times and the s&p has gone up 42%. it's pretty obvious they know what they're doing. they knew when to cut and knew when to raise. it's all about timing and they got it right both times. it seems the only people 2nd guessing the fed are those who've missed out on the greatest bull market which is now in the 11th year and going strong
as for 2014, i was 100% long and you disagreed? wow, that was over 1,000 s&p points ago. hopefully whatever you were investing in back that has had a better return.
worth repeating from late last year/early this year.
history shows that 3rd years in a presidential term are the best. the s&p's best return up to this year has been 19.42% (2017).
in just the first 3 months & 4 days, the s&p is up 15% (nas up 19%, dow +13, russell +16)
we hit yet another hoy again today. still think we get a 1-3% pullback before q1 earnings season kicks off. if we don't, we could see 3k much sooner than expected.
paging roxtrot! : )
S&P 500 ALL-TIME-HIGH 2940.91...ATTAINED ON SEPTEMBER 21, 2018!
"there has never been a better time to be in the us stock market"
~ T. Berry | September 21, 2018 at 1:25 PM
"zero doubt we'll see new highs. with the mkts just a mere 3% below all time highs"
~ T. Berry | March 15, 2019 at 9:47 AM
"patience, new all time highs are on the horizon"
~ T.Berry | March 31, 2019 at 5:50 PM
"fundamentally, the market looks solid with zero reasons to sell"
~ T.Berry | April 1, 2019 at 8:15 AM
"mkts just a rounding error from new all time highs"
~ T.Berry | April 1, 2019 at 4:37 PM
"hope to see you around when the s&p hits 4,000"
~ T.Berry | April 3, 2019 at 12:58 PM
"think we get a 1-3% pullback before q1 earnings season kicks off. if we don't, we could see 3k much sooner than expected"
~ T.Berry | April 4, 2019 at 1:10 PM
"not smart enough to know the answer trent" the wisest thing i think you've ever posted.
wish i could be as prudent as you trent. if only you shared your vast market wisdom!!!!!!!!
I have no claim on wisdom T. Berry. But i can see that something much larger is afoot then just the stock market.
Wisdom from someone who has been chronicling this since 1999:
http://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2019/04/market-commentary-faux-statesmanship.html
Trent commenting on Dingle's wisdom? Oh hell no.
Hoping Dingle loaded up on LYFT at the IPO open. Buy and hold Dingle
New ATH imminent, all thanks to years of destructive Fed monetary policy. How easily one forgets about the financial crisis and thinks something similar will never happen again.
As long as you have the Fed distorting markets by juggling rates, another crisis will happen again.
This our channel/count? New high around 2970?
Valid count, but the expected price on that count would be around 3030, at least.
Alternative is, that the marked fourth is actually just the end of a first wave. That would give a target around/above 3400.
Perfect short squeeze, I would say.
Can we get the greedometer up to 8K this year? I think we can.
https://www.greedometer.com/interactive-greedometer/marketcrash20192020/
I'm down for 2970, lads.
Bicycle: yep, it definitely feels like a classic accelerating/parabolic bubble-top.
What's bugging me is that the most matching count would be about an extended third, and for those the first usually the same as fifth (in size and/or in time). That would fit with a target around 3030.
Whatever, the most important thing about an accelerating market is to not get in its way - and get out of it in time because when it ends it will smash.
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