Wednesday, June 6, 2018

S&P 500 going parabolic again?

It looks like the 5/29 Bradley turn marked an important local low.  It was on a Full Moon, which should have been clue that the turn would be a bottom.



Now it looks like the S&P 500 is going parabolic again.

Next week's FOMC happens to fall on a New Moon.  We're less than 4% away from making new all-time highs on the index -- we could easily make it there by mid-session next Wednesday.

An FOMC can give us a reversal without gaps.  The February decline left giant holes in the chart, as well as an excessive RSI.  This parabolic needs to make a marginal new high, fill the existing gaps, while putting in a lower, divergent RSI.

$IRX is only 10 bps from glory and another .25 hike, maybe the one to break the camel's back.

SPX daily 06-06



38 comments:

Christian Gustafson said...

$TSLA has finally triggered its short-squeeze, too. It won't end until everyone has covered.

Skeptical said...

Kevin, do you have a target in mind for the Nasdaq (and your position in QQQ)?

T.Berry said...
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Christian Gustafson said...

Channel on S&P suggests ~2830 into FOMC, or maybe even we pop as high as 2850s to close that last gap.

Christian Gustafson said...

/me checks chart

curve as drawn still intact -- blow-off potential to 2880/FOMC still there

come on, animal spirits! teh growth and good times!

T.Berry said...

Household wealth tops $100 trillion for first time

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/household-wealth-tops-100-trillion-for-first-time-2018-06-07


"Americans net worth to disposable income, at 682.6%, is near the highest level in history, while debt service payments as a percentage of household income are way below bubble-era levels."





T.Berry said...
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T.Berry said...

2740-60 resistance

wrong!

Hugh Jazole said...

Watch Bitcoin.

Christian Gustafson said...

Yes.

The crypto bourse it at risk of a dramatic collapse.

Which is entirely appropriate, and hilarious.

Hugh Jazole said...

Great tweet. Love all the BTC bag holders giving him shit. We'll see how cocky they are tomorrow.

T.Berry said...

hugh, you got a twice in a lifetime opportunity --uvxy under 10.00 again.

Hugh Jazole said...

I am tempted. Waiting to see how the next few days play out.

T.Berry said...

think that'll turn out to be a good move hugh. you should be able to get it lower. if i remember you crushed it last time you bought it. good luck

given the outcome of tonights meeting we could easily see a 300 pt dow jones day tomorrow

T.Berry said...

nas & russell hitting new ath's with the s&p only less than 3% away. both proving to be good indicators of where the overall mkts are heading. possible small pullback before q2 earnings start rolling in in about 3 weeks

T.Berry said...
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T.Berry said...

wonder if armstrong updated his recent take......


Blogger Kevin Wilde said...

Martin Armstrong also looking for further corrective into April and May - panic cycle - with a May new low meaning the correction lasts till July.

April 5, 2018 at 3:25 PM

Hugh Jazole said...

Mixed bag of indicators, but XLF looking pretty weak.

T.Berry said...
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T.Berry said...

yeah pretty slow day hugh. however the stock market will be much higher by year end. the 2nd half i feel is going to be a really good one. it's hard to find any negatives in the leading economic indicators and the fundamentals continue to strengthen. the market can't ignore or shrug off the fundamentals. we'll see double digit gains again this year. s&p will go past 3,000 and onto 4,000 in about 3 years. next chance for a crash (the 10% variety) is about sometime in 2021/22 or so based on 60+ years history of the stock market dropping more than 10% on average once every 4 years.

the dow jones and s&p are continuing to follow the russell & nasdaq to new all time record highs.

the longest bull market in history keeps getting longer : )

Hugh Jazole said...

Reminder that Caldero totally blew the 2015/16 bear market. He was wildly bullish heading into 16, then changed his long term outlook to bearish right near the bottom.

Long term bullish November 2015 > https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2015/11/30/monday-update-481/

Long term bearish January 2016 > https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2016/01/30/weekend-update-537/

Christian Gustafson said...

New Moon today.

Massive key-reversal day today?

Support @1810 ...

T.Berry said...

i don't think we'll see any reversals cg. the market cannot ignore the strong fundamentals and economic climate. we could get a 3-4% pullback before q2 earnings come rolling in though.


again we see new all time record highs with the nasdaq and russell. soon the s&p and dow jones will follow.

this bull market (longest in history) is still in the top of the 6th with no outs :)

dow 40k before it's all said and done.

Hugh Jazole said...

You guys watching NYMO?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYMO

Hugh Jazole said...

Move along folks, nothing to see here.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/210_year_treasury_yield_spread

T.Berry said...

The number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits drops to 45-year low
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-edge-up-3000-to-229000-2018-01-18

U.S. retail sales surge in May; weekly jobless claims fall
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-retail-sales-surge-in-may-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-idUSKBN1JA1N8

the economic news just keeps getting better supporting the
strongest economy in decades only getting stronger. no way we could support an infrastructure program---not enough employees and quite honestly the economy doesn't need any stimulation. the concern should be an overheating economy. as long as the fed continues to stay ahead of the curve we should be good to go.


this bull market is going to go into extra innings. : )

T.Berry said...

nas & russell new all time record highs once again.

the nas is now over 900 points above the nov/2017 6850 top. and only 45 points from my original year end target. revised it in feb to 8000 which is looking pretty good

Skeptical said...

I wonder if the Nasdaq has a couple more days to go to put in a top. Perhaps on Monday.

Hugh Jazole said...

AAPL will lead the way.

Hugh Jazole said...

Copper heading under 3 soon?

T.Berry said...

good call hugh! aapl nas rus all green for now russell is an animal hitting yet another all time record along with the ndx
still think we get one more small pull back before q2 earnings come rolling in

Christian Gustafson said...

Leading diagonal complete now off the 2791 high?

Now we're just waiting for an acceleration event and a panic point of recognition.

T.Berry said...

last time copper was under 3.00 was about 340 s&p points ago. that was last june.

bullish sign?

Bryan Franco said...

Mkt looks heaviest it has looked in some time. Can not square that with small cap and, to an even greater extent, micro cap outperformance. Maybe we get a mini washout and then new highs.

Christian Gustafson said...

McHugh sez confirmed Hindenburg Omen today.

I say we're about to break the 2-4 trendline off the April lows.

T.Berry said...

hopefully the bears can deliver today. yesterday the dow gained over 150 after the open. would like to see 2-3% come off before q2 earnings start rolling in. margin time again! c'mon bears show us what you got lol

Hugh Jazole said...

Might want to wait a couple of months to BTFD.

T.Berry said...

waiting for the pre-earnings dip to jump in with a margin trade. over the past 9+ years during earnings season stocks most always go up. given the strength of both the leading economic indicators and a strong consumer (with extra money given the tax cuts) and corporate outlook i just can't see q2 earnings disappointing the least. i'll be in and out fairly quick (maybe 2-3 weeks). would like to see s&p dip to around 2700 if possible to get interested


and the btfd has never failed in 9+ years : )