Saturday, October 28, 2017

Fed Austerity will slay the petro-Yuan

China threw down the gauntlet this past week, announcing detailed plans for launching a petro-Yuan, oil priced internationally in their pretend currency, instead of ours.



This will, of course, destroy the $USD and put the Fed out of business overnight.  However, there is a solution to this problem -- austerity.  The Chinese banking system is so overextended and utterly impossible, that the plan ahead for us must be to ruin it, and collapse their economy, before they can destroy what's left of ours.  We must show them who really runs the Empire, or risk losing it all.

The S&P 500 will also be a casualty here, but we have re-capitalized the banks (right?) and FAS-157 guarding them anyway, so we can and will win a brutal war of financial attrition against the Chi-coms.

The current channel, and wave similarity, suggests maybe 2611 SPX into the Wednesday Fed meeting.  Then we will need a very stern policy statement from the Committee to get the ball rolling.  Nominating Taylor as the next chair would help as well.




This builds into larger waves to retest the 1800 SPX area and set us up for wild times in 2018.



The Fed can't fuck around any more with the petro-Yuan on the drawing board.  They need to throw the incredibly improvised and brittle Chinese financial system right into the hopper, their society into chaos, watch Xi lose the Mandate of Heaven, and secure the place of the $USD if for only a few more years.

We can do this.



47 comments:

John said...

Yes we can! Get fired up bankstas!

Hugh Jazole said...

I've been saying this for years. Our relationship with China has run its course, we HAVE to throw them under the bus! There will of course be retaliation. The only thing holding up this rickety old ship is the dollar, and TPTB know it.

Hugh Jazole said...

Is that warehouse in China? Can't imagine that shelving would pass in the US.

Kevin Wilde said...

A rally into a Wednesday peak would leave the NAZ smack at my 6850 target post a four day blow-off rally, which would be beautiful symmetry going into a 1987 repeat peaking process. My strategy says to take 1/2 long chips off the table at that point. However, the bears do need to be cautious of a 1999 repeat, where in November that year we saw an exact rally pop, followed by a hard pullback to the 50 day MA, a rocket to new highs, followed by another hard retest of the 50 day (I'm talking 10% drops followed by 12% rally, followed by 12% drops, one week after the other!) which led to the final blow-off pop into the March peak. My strategy calls to be selling into the rips, and loading up again on the big dips - rinse and repeat - till the trend changes - and when the trend changes, the next Great Bear begins. Exciting times. Boys and girls, get your trading hats on...

TSE said...

Thomas Cole - The Course of Empire -

http://www.explorethomascole.org/tour/items/63/series/

The fate of the West was determined when it rejected the hidden truths passed down from the end of the Golden Age - prior to the Cosmic event which occurred approx 12,000+ years ago and ended that Golden Age - and embraced the three great Yahwehisms - which call for exclusive worship of, and obedience to their "revealed truths" and destruction of other competing systems. The Nihilism of the West will end as the new age of Aquarius - the Water Bearer - water washes away sins and makes all clean again - is ushered in - albeit with great suffering and bloodshed.

https://youtu.be/VmAIPwNw1nM

TSE said...

The ultimate question is no longer “who am I” or “why am I here.” These questions were answered in the earliest civilizations by philosophers and priests. Today we live in an age of such rapid advances in technology and science that the ultimate question must be rephrased: “what shall we be?”

This book investigates what may become of human civilization, who is setting the agenda for a trans-humanistic civilization, and why.

http://feralhouse.com/transhumanism/

Bryan Franco said...

Wow. Picking up steam for a Sunday.

Christian Gustafson said...

Kevin, it will be so great if we hit your target for $NDX.

I know the awful tech bug-men here in the Seattle will be dancing in the streets. We'll see how they are when the $QQQ is back at $20.

TSE said...

The UBI is coming! That's the Universal Basic Income - which gives *FREE" FRN's to the working poor and the unemployed - so consumption and tax payments can continue. *FREE* FRN's isn't just for the 1% and Market Players/Traders anymore. The entire game has changed -

This California city's 27-year-old mayor will give residents $500 free cash per month

Tubbs, who was born and raised in Stockton and first elected to city council at 22, read about the idea of a guaranteed basic income in Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.'s last book, "Where Do We Go From Here: Chaos or Community?" In the book, King writes: "I'm now convinced that the simplest approach will prove to be the most effective  —  the solution to poverty is to abolish it directly by a now widely discussed measure: the guaranteed income."

Called the Stockton Economic Empowerment Demonstration (SEED), Tubbs and the city of Stockton announced their initiative Wednesday. In the coming six to nine months, SEED will go through a design period where the city will work with social scientists and community leaders to determine, among other things, the number of residents who will be part of the initial test phase of the program and how to select participants.

Checks of $500 per month are expected to start being distributed to Stocktonians in the second half of 2018. The goal is to grow the program as the city can afford to do so.

Stockton's SEED program is being funded initially with a $1 million grant from the Economic Security Project. It's also accepting crowdfunded donations to the project with a Crowdrise campaign. The Economic Security Project is an organization aiming to raising awareness of universal basic income in the United States and is co-chaired by future of work expert Natalie Foster, Facebook co-founder Chris Hughes and scholar and leader Dorian T. Warren.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/19/mayor-of-stockton-wants-to-give-residents-free-cash-each-month.html

And it's true - two can actually eat as cheaply as one!

Sex robot REVOLUTION: Realistic dolls will ‘change human interaction’ FOREVER

WE ARE in the midst of a sex robot revolution –

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/655594/Sex-robots-cyborgs-Harriet-SugarCookie-porn-star-destroy-social-lives-RealDoll-Lumidolls

Christian Gustafson said...

S&P 500 5 or 15-min chart.

If we are counting a 5-wave impulse up from last Wednesday's low at 2544, and if we are finishing the 4th wave of the series, then 2611 is too far to go -- it would make the 3rd wave (Friday's $AMZN festival) the shortest in the series.

This impulse would have to finish mid-channel, around the 2595 level. Or (ack) it's just the early stages of a much larger pattern to a new unknown.

Christian Gustafson said...

If we're finishing waves 1 & 2 from the 2544 low, then we can easily make it over 2600 this week.

I've heard that the Fed Chair announcement is set for Thursday, with the WSJ handicapping lawyer Powell as most likely for the slot.

Kevin Wilde said...

Them FED-loaded algos ready to fire with the announcement so all looks well with the world? Hey, the higher they go, the harder they fall.

Hugh Jazole said...

Shorts getting mighty cheap.

Kevin Wilde said...

DJT testing neckline of H&S top. NAZ intra-day chart shows 5 complete waves from, coming off a potential fourth wave consolidation zone. Thus both trannies and NAZ say top is in. However, when I look the RUT small caps, that looks like only a 3 wave mega rally, and recently trapped in a 4th wave consolidation zone, and looks like RUT has another 50-100 point rally in it. So set-up remains the same: crash right here, or after one final rally surge phase lasting 4 days. CELG is a classic example of what will happen to the broader stock indexes once hit peak.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=celg

Christian Gustafson said...

^IRX working its way up.

Any reason that the Fed needs to wait until December for that next hike?

Bryan Franco said...

They lose credibility by waiting.

Bicycle said...

They aren't gonna raise in Nov, it would be a gigantic surprise, just go look at the CME Fedwatch tool. Only 1.5% probability for Nov increase currently. 96.7% probability for Dec. hike. The Fed won't deviate from that during the holidays. The next probability for a hike after Dec. is currently Mar '18 at about 40%.

Bryan Franco said...

Defend the dollar vs bitcoin. Fed panics, raises rates.

Bryan Franco said...

Kooky action in the RUT today. Bears better hope it doesn't leave a giant tail and close near the highs with follow-through up tomorrow. If it does that, I go long.

Christian Gustafson said...

You mean the $RUT finally makes it to 1515 for the win?

Its tape over the last week looks like seismic trouble brewing in Yellowstone.

Bryan Franco said...

Bears might like a bearish engulfing candle on IWM today (body-to-body). The whole range already is engulfed. Let's see if it happens.

Bryan Franco said...

... And we got a bearish engulfing on IWM. Bears should be happy. Also bearish engulfing on high yield (HYG).

Hugh Jazole said...

AAII survey 45% bullish! 2018 shaping up to be very interesting.

Christian Gustafson said...

Everyone can see the dangerous shape brewing up on the hourly SPX since 10/9?

Textbook ending-diagonal wedge, needs one more touch of the top line.

Kevin Wilde said...

What I see is the RUT in a clear 4th wave sideways bull flag channel of the rally off the August 19 lows. Which means a potential quick 50 to 100 point wave 5 move still to come. Similar wave 4 in DJI, though 5th wave could be much smaller. Thus still looks like more sucker rally pop to new highs to go.

Hugh Jazole said...

How risky could UVXY be here?

Kevin Wilde said...

UVXY all or nothing. Compound or die. Worth a shot here, IMHO, double up on one final leg higher for RUT 50 or 100 points higher. Simply a question of WHEN UVXY compounds to a fortune, or not if.

Hugh Jazole said...

I'm thinking there may be an even better entry as we approach Black Friday. Seasonally very bullish.

TSE said...

Relax.

Enjoy the Decline - after all - these things take time....

http://captaincapitalism.blogspot.com/

Be part of the Brotherhood...

https://youtu.be/-w9xXtNdKQw

TSE said...

I'm actually unsure of who looks more uptight - Kevin Franco or Kevin Wilde.... and really ... Wilde? More like LAME.

Just IMO.

Numbers and markets are .... well, infinite creations of Wizards with powers beyond mere mortals.

Profit while you can - until u can't.

Kevin Wilde said...

TSE, if personal attacks on the internet are your thing then Danerics would be a much better fit for you. There's nothing lame about my 62% performance this year, and that's how we score success in this business. Please respect Christian's blog, as lurkers here like he and it, and good things should be cherished, not spoilt.

Christian Gustafson said...

Don't want to jinx it, but is it finally over?

IMO support is 250 handles lower in 3 weeks.

Bryan Franco said...

The ^RUT is probably not a bull flag anymore.

rotrot said...

[TIME TO SHORT STOCKS BUCKO] – Dr. Fly | Tue Nov 7, 2017 3:26pm EST
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2017/11/07/time-short-stocks-bucko/#sthash.E2soEzcr.dTvQP2G7.dpbsoff

ADVISORY: it is not my intention to offend anyone…this character routinely uses language that is not politically correct…however, his analysis of the stock market is consistently spot on…

Kevin Wilde said...

I'm going to undo CG's jinx by saying we have one more pop to new highs to go. Since the difference between bull end now versus after one more rally push is so small in both price and time that prepare for the next Great Bear is called for. That ^RUT chart is interesting, especially as it challenges the 50 day MA below current prices. Bulls have a decision to make on the next dip for RUT.

Hugh Jazole said...

Oh man.

https://electronicintifada.net/blogs/ali-abunimah/harvey-weinstein-used-israeli-spies-effort-silence-victims

Hugh Jazole said...

"I'm going to undo CG's jinx by saying we have one more pop to new highs to go." I have faith the market makers will give us a Christmas rally. The real fun begins next year.

Kevin Wilde said...

Armstrong is looking for a high on Thanksgiving targeting Dow 23,700.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ecm-armstrongeconomics101/the-ecm-turning-point-here-in-november/

Kevin Wilde said...

Martin A just out with private blog post for Dow and Dax, where is just issued an extreme caution warning on both. He's looking for a peak later in November, with a close below Dow 23,050 needed to confirm a top of some kind is in. Next cycle turn is Thanksgiving week - so enjoy your turkey! DAZ has trigger bear already, probably one he terms "Critical high" (whatever that means, though doesn't sound good, does it?) Where a weekly close for DAX below 12,849 = a serious correction underway. DAX is currently at 13,182.

Kevin Wilde said...

Famed market technical, Peter Eliades of stock market cycle fame, was just on Fox Business News offering a big bad bear warning. He's basing that on three things: advances versus decliners sideways churn led to a breakdown, and in the past that equates to bear beginning. The second is the 17 year cycle, with 2017, of course, being exactly 17 years after 2000 (and so on, backwards, equating to major market turns in opposite direction.) The third is unemployment of 4.1% in relation to 17 cycle (last time 4% unemployment was 2000.) He basically says anything that has worked for 90+ years is worth listening to, and now it is screaming bear.

Bryan Franco said...

I am a screaming bear in sheep's clothing.

Hugh Jazole said...

Oil spike coming.

https://www.peakprosperity.com/comment/211381#comment-211381

Hugh Jazole said...

Excellent!

xhttp://chicago.cbslocal.com/2017/11/15/tuesday-shootings-600-homicides/

Christian Gustafson said...

The most dangerous count ATM is that 2597 - 2557 was the mythical leading-diagonal creature off the top, and that yesterday's surge was C of W2 up.

We should know today.

Bryan Franco said...

CG - This week's move higher could have also been a 5f as part of a larger ending diagonal

Hugh Jazole said...

You can trust Goldman Sachs.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/17/goldman-sachs-says-2017-was-surprisingly-good.html

Kevin Wilde said...

Most institutional investor talks their book. Goldman is the opposite, where they trick you to buy something that they are positioned opposite of. They should start every conversation with, "Hey, sucker, have I got a deal for you..."