Wednesday, August 2, 2017

Diamond-top in progress on /ES, SPX

It's a picture-perfect diamond pattern, so far.



Will it break down (top) or up (continuation)?

/ES 1H diamond

29 comments:

Christian Gustafson said...

If the diamond top pattern plays out as an island top, we could open one morning at 2460 on the S&P, bounce a little, and keep going.

There would be no need to fill that gap.

Hugh Jazole said...

Um.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/03/apple-owns-more-us-treasuries-than-many-major-countries.html

Kevin Wilde said...

For those looking for a reason for bull to turn to bear, look no further than NK and looming September 1, when the US/SK war games begin August 21, and US citizens are warned to be out of NK by then. Here's an article from the UK newspaper The Times on the topic.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/trump-pledges-war-with-kim-jong-un-to-end-north-korea-nuclear-missile-threat-qw3gtrdsn?shareToken=87b429c7b60cfd2d1f3b58f5032b937d

Bryan Franco said...

We are at the apex of said right side of diamond. Be nimble as they usually don't make it too easy.. I.e. fakeouts above and below trendlines

Kevin Wilde said...

a drop here could be a C wave to finish up a 2. If so, up up away we go! (shortly there-after.)

T.Berry said...

up up and away kevin. dow's looking like it wants to hit 8 straight new all time record highs today which would bring the total new all time stock market record highs to #34 for the year. this bull is unprecedented. with no overhead resistance we could be at 23k well before year end.
earnings & outlooks continue to drive mkts higher.

T.Berry said...

2017 is averaging 1 new all time record high for stocks per week. not sure if this phenom has ever happened before.

Kevin Wilde said...

I would go short at Dow 23K.

Hugh Jazole said...

Transports back on track or nah?

Kevin Wilde said...

Market worries: DJT possible new bear thrust to trigger a Dow Theory sell signal. RUT and MDY have failed breakouts, where they have pulled back below the breakout line. On the positive front, financials breaking out today, and energy looking better (or doing the dead cat thing.) 1987 pattern would have us sell-off modestly over the next month, followed by one push to new highs ahead of the crash. Modest sell-off here fits with Tom M's latest missif.
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/djia_arriving_at_the_real_seasonal_peak/

Bryan Franco said...

Kevin W. I noticed the same "trap" .. It should be an important one. In theory.

Hugh Jazole said...

LOL!

https://www.thesun.co.uk/tech/4170364/former-facebook-executive-says-society-will-collapse-within-30-years-as-robots-put-half-of-humans-out-of-work/

Kevin Wilde said...

Hugh, that is a pretty stupid conclusion Facebook is touting. Collapse of socialism and unfunded government promises will have us in the soup well before then, and I doubt companies like FB will even be around by then, let alone any company having money for robot research. Either way, I bet on people to get it right, even though that means we have to face the recognizing we got it wrong before we it right, phase. Bull for now, massive bear, then super bull tis the plan for all this man made drama. Have a great weekend!

Hugh Jazole said...

It's going to KILL US ALL!!!

http://www.express.co.uk/news/science/837120/Yellowstone-supervolcano-to-BLOW-1400-earthquakes

Kevin Wilde said...

Hugh, if you're interested in the Daily and Sunday Express, you can get it on your Kindle Fire or I-Pad for $11 a month, and its the actual newspaper delivered to your device each day. Though you will need to hurry, before Old Faithful blows!

Kevin Wilde said...

T.Berry, one of these videos has an explanation why expected annual return of 8% per year is way of the mark. First vid is short and outlines just how bad a war we face. The second is longer, and goes through all the major disasters we face. Enjoy and learn!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gc2YAxEWrvQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTAkru9Jf9A

T.Berry said...

10 straight up days and #37 new all time high set in 2017. records going down every day.

kevin, aren't wars supposed to be good for markets?

http://www.barrons.com/articles/war-is-hellbut-not-for-the-stock-market-1492702379

Furthermore, the Dow’s strong performance continued for several more months. On average, over the three months after the start of these seven events, the Dow rose 6.7%, compared to an average gain of 2.4% across all three-month periods since 1983. And six months after those beginning dates, it was 7.2% higher, versus an average gain of 4.8%

if we just match previous averages the dow jones is looking at 23700 by jan 18. howver this being the strongest bull market in history it could be closer to 25,000 on the way to 40,000.

T.Berry said...

"I would go short at Dow 23K"

kevin you'll get a chance! but like those who've been shorting since the dow jones crossed 12K then 15k be very careful.

Hugh Jazole said...

Tick tock.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-households-will-soon-have-as-much-debt-as-they-had-in-2008-2017-04-03

Hugh Jazole said...

Per Caldero. "Market is trading like it did before index futures were introduced in the 1980’s. This is clearly illustrated by the recent lowest VIX level since its original inception in 1986. The two previous all-time lows, original formula: 1995 and 2005, and new methodology: 1993 and 2006. Bull market tops have occurred, at the earliest, one year later. "

Bryan Franco said...

HJ. I might look at actual realized volatility in the Dow so one can go back 100 plus years to increase the sample size. I am curious if there needs to be such a lag in the market's ultimate high when looked at that way.

Kevin Wilde said...

"kevin, aren't wars supposed to be good for markets?" AFTER the bear market, yes. I remember the 1990 bear ending the exact moment the tanks crossed into Iraq. Though the bear market ran right up to that time. Bull follows bears, remember (just as bears follows bull.) So a war shock here - or any other shock here - would create a royal melt-down as the overleveraged get wiped out. I assume you didn't listen to youtube link I sent, where Nenner pointed out to get back to the 8% on average return line the Dow would need to fall 75% from current levels (which is his - and my - expectation.) The world will be a different place by then (though should be in buy position by 2020/21.)

Christian Gustafson said...

We will be back at support at the 2007 (year) highs by Columbus Day.

Maybe I'm the only one who sees this, and I'm OK with that.

T.Berry said...

looks like #38 on tap today. kevin, not trying to be disrepectful but i really hope you're putting much $$ on the dow jones falling 75% . just like a few years ago when the guru's said the s&p was going to 200 or 600, they were proved wrong. the shorts would be lucky to see the dow jones below 20,000 in their lifetime. and that's even if this market were to pullback 10% which i highly doubt that would happen. think circuit breakers & janet yellen.

T.Berry said...

whoever said 2600 on the s&P is going to be spot-on.

Hugh Jazole said...

Thar she blows!

T.Berry said...

"Will it break down (top) or up (continuation)?"

the answers pretty clear. about time! here comes dow 23k!

T.Berry said...

kevin, ive been here since the dow was 15k and have heard a million reasons why it's going to crash. if there wasn't so many fearmongers out there calling for crashes every other week i'd get concerned. : )

Bryan Franco said...

We have an intraday $VIX divergence relative to $SPX