Saturday, June 17, 2017

Looking for that long convexity trade

One of my favorite coffee shops burned last night; I heard it was arson.  At the northwest edge of the city, above Golden Gardens Park, Fiore is a natural stop for a long weekend walk.  Hope they can rebuild and reopen the place.



We managed to make it through a yuge June opex without any fireworks, and SPY was up 50 cents or so after-hours Friday, which bodes well for Monday.  We are in a Hindenburg Omen window (quantitative signs of market instability), and FWIW, there is a Bradley-model turn coming up on Tuesday.

Bradley siderograph 2017, from http://www.amanita.at

I'd like to see us get up to the 2455 level on the S&P 500 and reverse intraday on Tuesday.  The first bounce would be minor channel support back at 2322.  We will then need to break that support before we can head lower to test the channel support for the entire 2009 (year) rally.  If the larger pattern plays out this year, key highs will be at Fed meetings, as they continue to hike their interest rate targets and drain the swamp.

SPX 2017 selloff

15 comments:

Christian Gustafson said...

I've got a ton of photos of the awful painted plastic townhouses of Seattle, which I will organize, post, and explain to you in the coming days. Ballard is overrun with them now.

Christian Gustafson said...

Amazon.com purchases Whole Foods.

Bryan Franco said...

CG. What is your take of AMZN-WFM?

Hugh Jazole said...

I live in an area with a lot of trendy types. Some of them can't even be bothered to go to the grocery store/farmers market anymore. Some even have coffee delivered! I'm talking about a couple of cups of freakin coffee! When I first noticed this trend, I figured it would fizzle out pretty quick, but it seems to be catching on. Whole Foods fits right into the demographic that uses these services.

Hugh Jazole said...

STILL 75% bullish senitment on UVXY on investing! How's that been working out!?

Bicycle said...

a few more days like today this week, and we have a potential supercycle top candidate that may end up carving up to 75% off the major indices on an inflation-adjusted basis

its finally ending guys

T.Berry said...

nothign holding her back boys. didn't think my s&p year end target would get hit before the end of june . lol. new target an easy 2550. including several tops and final highs lol. only 22% till s&p 3k (within 24 months maybe sooner)

T.Berry said...

going out on limb, we'll never see a stronger and longer secular bull mkt in our lifetime. think 4th inning too :)

Hugh Jazole said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Hugh Jazole said...

CAPE ratio over 30! OMG

T.Berry said...

hugh, cape was near 45 back in 2000 so 30 doesn't seem too high or is it?

s&p now less than 2% from 2500 and only 2% till dow 22k! both well within striking distance and could happen in a few weeks if not sooner.

sell in may?? lol

Kevin Wilde said...

Looks like CG got his SP 2455 by Tuesday wish. Now we are on watch for a reversal day tomorrow.

Bryan Franco said...

No new low $VIX

T.Berry said...

cg nailing the highs (new) feeling we'll start seeing s&p 2500++ start showing up on the charts soon then 2600 later this year.

Bryan Franco said...

Some thoughts I am wrestling with. Not sure of the implications just yet:

1. Nasdaq had less vol than consumer staples and utilities before last week. That has changed.
2. Fixed income is starting to act as an unreliable downside hedge. We have seen some clues over the last week that the dollar could take its spot.
3. The S&P High Beta etf (SPHB), appears to be at a critical inflection point. It has had one of the nastiest ytd relative underperformances I have ever seen vs. Tech. Just last week it also had one of the strongest bounces that I have ever seen vs tech. On its own, it is inflecting and could go either way, though probabilities would suggest a move higher.
4. Can the high beta sectors such as financials, transports, and energy come to life while the S&P itself goes down? This would probably require tech to get severely beaten. What is the liklihood of those two events occurring together?