Thursday, May 25, 2017

At this point we're just waiting for the June FOMC

Market should be dullsville until then, slight drift up and to the right.  We're actually in a little channel that takes us up to ~2428 on the S&P 500 by the June FOMC meeting.

Go outside, watch the grass grow instead.

S&P 500 stairstep back to the 1040 level

31 comments:

Christian Gustafson said...

All those lines have fun fibonacci relations with each other, of course.

Doing absolutely nothing until 6/14.

Kevin Wilde said...

NAZ 6200 profit target hit, thus selling 1/2 my QLD position. Danger rises dramatically from here.

T.Berry said...

look out above, lot of air up there. only 3.5% till s&p takes out 2,500. its only up 8% ytd so another 3.5% shouldn't be much of a problem. nothing overhead to hold it back now.
kevin, nice QLD hope you did very well. are you planning on buying it back on pullback? they don't last long in this bull market.

Kevin Wilde said...

Not sure how to post charts here view the chart here
http://alphaking.com/performance/
the trend trading indicator at the bottom of the chart rising above the green line (which is has done today, and I will update the chart later this evening after the market closes and I get actual data) is what triggers taking profit. A move back to the middle is the trigger to reenter those positions exited today. That's about a 5% pullback. The chart goes back to 1972 when the NAZ began, with the purple line showing performance of simple trend following that goes 100% in, then 50% on profit take (now,) and money market (cash) on trend sell periods. The green line shows max performance when leverage (QLD/QID) are used, in conjunction with the bull/bear cycle indicator top of chart.

T.Berry said...

thanks kevin. a 5% pullback has been pretty typical during this secular bull market. even if we do get one still feel s&P closes out '17 over 2,500+ . '17 is shaping up to be another good year for investors perhaps even better than average. the economic landscape has been pretty solid.

Hugh Jazole said...

Bullish VIX sentiment now over 90% on investing.

Hugh Jazole said...

What about the 94 scenario?

http://ciovaccocapital.com/wordpress/index.php/stock-market-us/1994-scenario-markets-worst-nightmare/

Christian Gustafson said...

Article from 2013. But point is well-taken.

Rosenberg came out this week proposing that the Fed could invert the curve through short-term hikes, an idea that has made the rounds here.

We intend to try them all until one plays out.

Kevin Wilde said...

"what about the 1994 scenario?" The difference between then and now re the bull/bear cycle is we are in a blow off bull phase represented by the orange arrow top of chart via the link below, where as back in 1994 we were on a yellow arrow to sell to new bull start. Yellow arrows are minor bears, where as orange arrows are blow off bull phases that ALWAYS end with a major bear market and financial crises (represented by the maroon line.) Green arrows are new bull starts. Also demographics were fantastic back then as boomers moved into prime productivity and spending years, where as now they are horrible as boomers move into prime savings and retiring phase. Thus one should be expecting a 50% drop at a minimum, and one that likely morphs into something extremely prolonged. Once bubble peak is in, of course.

Kevin Wilde said...

here's the link to the chart I referenced above
http://alphaking.com/performance/

Hugh Jazole said...

Shape shifting lizard Zbigniew Berserkski, has slithered into his dungeon deep in the earth. Anyone else glad this freak is gone? He's probably responsible for more anti-American sentiment than anyone.

TSE said...

"Market should be dullsville until then, slight drift up and to the right."

C'mon CG - just consider a younger and hotter Janet Yellen...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jj5vagsGC38

OK - Maybe not...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T65rW_SIzg0

LOL! "slight drift up and to the right".

Didn't Diamond Dave say it best?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cElzOTOnMHI

Happy Memorial Day 2017!

TSE said...

I bought my ticket.

https://redpillexpo.org/

Been out there before - 2015 to be exact. Free camping at Pipestone Pass near Butte at a pretty little place called Pigeon Creek - BLM

https://freecampsites.net/#!11995&query=sitedetails

Summer camping fun is just starting in the West. Enjoy!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQrbd0VWxBU

Bicycle said...

IRX new 52 week highs today while the rest of the curve, yet again... isn't...

Hugh Jazole said...

Sky high carbon taxes needed to avoid "climate catastrophe."

http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2017/05/sky-high-carbon-tax-needed-to-avoid.html


Kevin Wilde said...

One cannot tax the sun, nor the wobble that causes the earth to move that gives us the El Nino and El Nina effects, which are the primary drivers of planted warming and cooling. Climate catastrophe is simply a tax and redistribute scheme created by the left who hate to see people and countries thriving.

Hugh Jazole said...

"Climate catastrophe is simply a tax and redistribute scheme created by the left who hate to see people and countries thriving." It looks like they also want to create a whole new trading scheme, using that as an excuse. Of course we all get to pay for it. "Carbon credits" will be traded like commodities.

Bryan Franco said...

FB AMZN AAPL MSFT GOOG actually experienced some selling this morning. Say it isn't so.

Hugh Jazole said...

Has Trump redeemed himself?

john said...

Ok, should I sell the house, wife , kids and dog now?
The boat is ready.

T.Berry said...

john, if you are an investor and plan to be in for a while, you will regret selling now. 401k's and stock portfolio's are doing nothing but hitting new all time record highs. we are fortunate to be in the strongest economic and stock market recovery in history. this bull is far from over as it is a secular and they can last up to 20+ years.

as we continue hitting all time record stock market highs along with real estate prices, american's have never been wealthier. as the economy continues to gain strength i don't forsee the stock market slowing down anytime soon.

doesn't look like the sell in may crowd was right for the 9th straight year lol. time to push that crash back another month or year : )

Hugh Jazole said...

Take THAT, you little PERVERTS!

http://reason.com/blog/2017/05/31/house-overwhelmingly-supports-bill-subje


Kevin Wilde said...

<> I sold 1/2 my stocks, am short one wife, and I buried the dog, buy and holding the kids. Tis all about risk, and lightening up is defo called for here. Buy on dips, sell on rips, is the way to go, while we see some serious signs of distribution. When the trend turns negative, selling all longs, and maybe holding some shorts is the way to go.

TSE said...

H.J Said -

WHOA!

Take THAT, you little PERVERTS!

That is truly some really scary stuff....

Especially since girls become sexually aggressive at Puberty and continue to use their Beauty Power as a weapon until they hit "THE WALL" - at around 30 or so.

"Teens who text each other explicit images could be subject to 15 years in federal prison under a new bill that just passed the House of Representatives. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas), ranking member of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Crime, has called the measure "deadly and counterproductive.""

GDSOB - "House of Representatives. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas), ranking member of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Crime, has called the measure "deadly and counterproductive.""

AGREED!

At this point on time - if this was to go forward - I would have to welcome a first strike upon my homeland - in accordance with The Mỹ Lai Massacre

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/My_Lai_Massacre

Destroy it in order to save it.

World War 3... SCO vs usa

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0OaTtys-_8U

And after those Satan Missiles strike - the electricity will go out - and the diseases of the past will return - to cleanse the land:

Camp Killers: Bad plumbing was merely one of many sanitation factors that gave rise to the Black Death. Other scourges are more directly related to human waste. Dysentery is one that has left an indelible mark on history.

Characterized by painful diarrhea, dysentery is often called an army’s “fifth column.” Identified as far back as the time of Hippocrates and before, it comes in various forms of infectious disorders and is said to have contributed to the defeat of the Crusaders. Wrote the eminent English historian, Charles Creighton: “The Crusaders of the 11th – 13th centuries were not defeated so much by the scimitars of the Saracens as by the hostile bacteria of dysentery and other epidemics. ”

The summer of the first Crusade in 1090 was extraordinarily hot as the ill-prepared and rag-tag “army” of men and camp followers went to war with little more than the clothes on their backs-confident that the Lord would provide for their needs in such a holy cause. They denuded the land of trees and bushes in the quest for nourishment. Hampered by lack of fresh water and contaminated containers, they trudged along to their destiny, relieving themselves along the wayside or in the fields.

Dysentery hit the women and children first, and then the troops. More than 100,00 died plus almost 2,500 German reinforcements whose bodies remained unburied.

Typhus fever is another disease born of bad sanitation. It has come under many headings, including “jail fever” or “ship fever,” because it is so common among men in pent-up, putrid surroundings. Transmitted by lice that dwell in human feces, the disease is highly contagious.

Napoleon lost thousands of his men to typhus in Russia – as did the Russians who caught it from the enemy. Many historians believe that Napoleon would have won were it not for the might of his opponents “General Winter, General Famine and General Typhus.”

French ships were notorious for their filthy and fever-ridden sailors. One such French squadron left its soiled clothing and blankets behind near Halifax, Nova Scotia, when they returned to Europe in 1746, thinking they could dispel their own plague. Their infected blankets wiped out a nation of Indians.

Typhoid fever, a slightly different ailment than typhus, involves a Salmonella bacillus that is found in the feces and urine of man. The symptoms are so similar to typhus that the two were not differentiated until 1837. Prince Albert died from typhoid in 1861. His wife, Queen Victoria, had built-in in-immunity because of a previous siege. Good thing, because she is said to have prostrated herself in grief across the dead body of her beloved husband.

http://theplumber.com/plagues-epidemics/







TSE said...


If you want your Sons and Daughters to grow up and be Virgins - well then, insulate then from the World around them - ban TV and Social Media - and deny Reality.

GD - DMn't - at 15 - Hormones just make you HORNY! It is a fact of life - an NO = you are not a pervert. IT IS NORMAL!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvy13j6-gek

Those who wish to Register horny 15 YO's as sex offenders need to be safely removed from Society at Large. - OR possibly HANGED - as required to get them to STFU.

Hugh Jazole said...

I've been trying to spread the virtues of Libertarianism for years, but mainstream Republicans refuse to hear it. They get exactly what they deserve electing these idiots. Can't wait until one of their precious, evangelical offspring gets thrown in prison for sexting.

Hugh Jazole said...

https://www.fff.org/explore-freedom/article/the-virtues-of-libertarianism/

"The principle that undergirds the libertarian philosophy is what is known as the nonaggression principle. It holds that people should be free to live their lives in any way they choose, making whatever choices they wish to make, but with one condition: that their conduct must be peaceful (and non fraudulent).

There are many choices and actions, however, that are entirely peaceful in nature (i.e., that don’t involve the initiation of force) and that many people in society don’t approve of. It is this realm that distinguishes libertarians from nonlibertarians.

Nonlibertarians believe that it is entirely appropriate for the state to punish people for the exercise of what some consider wrongful choices, even if such choices are entirely peaceful and consensual in nature."

OMG, they're INSANE!! Libertarians are a bunch of radicals!!

Hugh Jazole said...

http://www.amateur-investor.net/AII_Weekend_AnalysisJune_3_17.htm

sooner said...

@Hugh The current crop of national level republicans have no ideology.

They are totally beholden to their donors and nothing else.

I would suggest we can't really use them for a comparison to any ideology except maybe Democrat liberalism/progressivism which they seem to compare favorably towards.

I concur our society gets what they deserve voting all of these idiots in, not just the repubs.

Depriv said...

Just a bit more patience
http://keptarhely.eu/view.php?file=20170607v00lfpf3b.jpeg

Kevin Wilde said...

""I concur our society gets what they deserve voting all of these idiots in, not just the repubs."" I love the comparison video where Bill Clinton of old said almost word for word what Donald Trump said as candidate, yet now the latter is all crazy talk (while the former saying it was deemed fantastic.) I attended Bill Clinton's first inauguration, and attended the Arkansas ball. Seems to me that the left moved way far from the moderate view of the early Bill, while the current republicans have yet to come closer to middle view of Trump, which is where the majority of Americans want us to go. Winston Churchill once said that the strongest argument against democracy was to spend 5 minutes with the average voter - which was a funny statement, and good humor - though people as a group get it right. On that note, hope Teresa gets a big win tomorrow, or we are all screwed.