Tuesday, January 24, 2017

Well we have to post something

More patient waiting, waiting, seeing trendlines converging for another candidate top into February opex.



By the terms of this blog project, we're obligated to make an effort to figure out just where in the hell we are.  An ending-diagonal pattern would take a few more tedious weeks to finish.

SPX 60D

After that, they're serving volatility -- violence, up and down -- for the rest of the Spring season:

SPX 2Y

23 comments:

Christian Gustafson said...

Hey.

Do any of you hungry mooks need Girl Scout cookies?

Mrs. G started a troop a few years back. It's that voluntarism thing we've still got going here and there in de Tocqueville's America.

I'm a Thin Mints man myself.

Ken Barrows said...

T Berry, time to comment and gloat. Now!

Christian Gustafson said...

Is the Trump Twitter feed working OK for you guys?

It looks like we get our first SCOTUS pick next week. I'll go ahead and make the call now that Donald will replace the entire court over his 8 years.

T.Berry said...

hey ken, no can gloat, i blew the call. thought we'd see dow 20k in april. :) realize it was only a matter of time but still way off. still sticking with dow 22.5k by year end (remeber same here matter of when not if). probably conservative target given how well economy is doing. americans have never been wealthier, homes record highs, 401k record highs consumer confidence high. we are fortunate to be living in one fo the best times in america. you will need to be very patient waitng for stocks to go down. only 5th inning. like i've said before strongest secular bull market in hisitory and only getting stornger. hope you are here in a few years to see dow 30k ken. : ) you can thank your former president :)

T.Berry said...

oh yeah, and as they say, as january goes.....2017 is going to be another oustanding year for those who believe in the stock market. this bull is just getting warm up for 2017. s&p already up 3% ytd

Hugh Jazole said...

Are Protestants allowed on Supreme Court anymore?

Christian Gustafson said...

Aaaand they're flipping houses once again.

Bryan Franco said...

CG - Trump was the catalyst for the retail investor to go ALL IN. The YTD performance in the F.A.N.G. stocks is all one needs to see. Retail flocks to glamour. We know what that means longer term. But can it end in March?

Regarding Infrastructure plans. I would be a happy man if the only thing DJT did was to ensure they fix the potholes on the Southfield Freeway over here in Southfield, MI. Destroyed/Destroying my car.

Bicycle said...

I think IRX is key here, its at super long term resistance, if it strongly breaks thru current levels rates are headed way higher. If it rejects again the Fed may be going negative over the next few years, possibly as far as -1.75% or -2%--and then we will break out to 8-12%.

Either path we are all getting rekt

Christian Gustafson said...

I guess in Fed terms, let's propose that they hike at the next meeting -- February 1st.

But we're up here in the ether, so the reaction is muted, just a little chop ... everyone looking at each other, wondering what to do.

But pressure builds ... until it finally blows out hard.

Then all the VOL shorts and other highly-leveraged one-sided trades all blow up in unison.

T.Berry said...

wouldn't be still second guesing the fed. theyve been spot on for 8 years. be careful with those shorts we're about to explode much much higher. quite frankly market has never looked better.

hugh you need to get in, you don't want to miss the next 1k points!!!

Hugh Jazole said...

T. Berry, I'm always "in" to some degree. How much I'm in depends on the circumstances. I agree things are looking pretty bullish for 2017, but I'm still VERY cautious here in the first quarter.

Christian Gustafson said...

Well there's 2300. Now we zone out for 2 weeks of the sideways, on vapor volume?

Hugh Jazole said...

With a few exceptions the market looks strong as an Ox. The DJT just won't stop. Apparently DJT is bullish for the DJT! If we don't turn around in the next couple of weeks, I'm throwing in the towel. SPXL anyone?

Hugh Jazole said...

UVXY giving us a wink?

Hugh Jazole said...

Came across another interesting book recently. This one of from 92.

https://www.amazon.com/Millennium-Winners-Losers-Coming-Order/dp/0812920880

TSE said...

Regarding GS Cookies - I always preferred the Shortbreads but those aren't offered anymore! They've been re-branded as Trefoils.

The Tagalongs were formerly known as Peanut Butter Patties. I also like those.

I must agree - Thin Mints are also very good.

Meanwhile:

California Threatens To Cut Off Funds To Washington

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-28/california-threatens-cut-funds-washington

Well, that means that "The State of California" - a Corporate fictious entity; just joined the ranks of "Illegal Tax Protestors". LOL

The State of California is tempting fate - ala the last War Between The States.

As for "Millennium; Winners and Losers in the Coming Order"

Understand that the Japanese find Joy in Work.

Have one of the highest IQ's on a per person basis versus other Nations.

Have a hive mentality.

Have complex problem solving abilities.

Americans - DON'T.

The future for America:

https://youtu.be/G0R09YzyuCI

From the video:

"Sustainability is an active condition of problem solving, not a passive consequence of consuming less."

What happens when the electrical system and thus the sewage treatment plants go down? WHY- it's a return to the good old days of Plagues and Epidemics which will control the Human population on this Planet.

http://theplumber.com/plagues-epidemics/

TSE said...

Here is what we all really WANT:

(at least those of us who are real men:)


A Bad, BAD, GF:

https://youtu.be/9YrWsmlJSiw

DOW 30,000 is just an extra hard Woodie. It's all a feature of the Trumpening.

Hugh Jazole said...

First quarter shenanigans finally here? UVXY popping morning wood.

Hugh Jazole said...

"Boy" Scouts.

http://fox2now.com/2017/01/30/boy-scouts-will-allow-transgender-children-into-programs/


T.Berry said...

nice to see a healthy pullback. mkt was due.

2017 off to a great start nas up 4.3% and s&p 1.8% in the first month. as the saying goes "as goes jan goes the year". the secular marches on! stronger than ever. hope everyone's '17 is a profitable one!

if you're looking for a sale to get more long hugh, we're getting close. strong mkts like these don't stay down long.

Hugh Jazole said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Hugh Jazole said...

"The third opportunity for government policy manipulation comes with the continued influx of illegal aliens. John Tanton, chairman of the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) and leading thinker on illegal immigration, summarizes the findings of studies of the beneficiaries by saying that the only Americans who benefit are business interests that employ illegals at low wages.[26] That is all![27] In this country, 75 percent of Hispanics approve of illegal immigration control and of national identification cards.[28] This is the group that the Catholic hierarchy said opposed control. (Of course, the Church was only speaking “on behalf of” Hispanics all along.)

No one benefits except some often unscrupulous business interests and the Catholic hierarchy (90 percent of all illegal aliens are Catho­lic). No illegal immigration control organizations ever mention opposi­tion by the hierarchy—another example of the power of censorship.

If illegal aliens were comprised of other religious groups, we prob­ably would have little illegal immigration control problems in the United States. How does the Church justify this blatantly anti-American activity of creating a sanctuary in America for Catholic il­legal aliens from Latin America?

Officially one-quarter of the people in the Catholic Church in the United States are Hispanic. However, according to Church spokesman the Reverend Raymond G. Schutte, a Benedictine, in reality almost 40 percent of our country’s Catholics are Spanish-speaking, and their number will rise to 50 percent by 1990[29]—only six years from now—due mostly to illegal immigration."

http://churchandstate.org.uk/2012/03/how-the-vatican-influences-us-policy/