Monday, December 21, 2015

Charts 12-21

Updated counts.  Bullish and looking for new highs by the first week of the January.

Monthly SPX Bollinger Band is at 2150; the weekly is near 2145; the daily around 2120.  A lasting and significant high and turn would reach them all and then fall apart.

SPX 12-21
SPX 12-21 1Y

36 comments:

Christian Gustafson said...

IMO the McClellan Oscillator looks bullish, too.

Hugh Jazole said...

I'm hoping your prediction for a sub 20 UVXY comes true. I will certainly take a nibble at that level.

scott said...

Santa Shaved and moved to Florida for the winter...

Christian Gustafson said...

Ah! but now we mid-term market bulls have the Gartman indicator on our side.

The man is bearish! This almost guarantees new highs, maybe even full recovery and a new Golden Age.

scott said...

seriously, CG? I've made EVERY CALL correctly over the last couple of weeks and you have to keep revising your timeline and targets...

Good GRAVY. I can't get no respect!

Hugh Jazole said...

What's your current call Scott? Are you bearish into the New Year? It's looking like at least a Santa rally is baked in here.

scott said...

Santa is in Florida and the elves are filing for unemployment benes.

The only thing baked in here is the panic of the lemmings.

Hugh Jazole said...

BTW, the dollar has only declined since the Fed raised.

scott said...

Santa seems to have low blood sugar here! Needs to eat more cookies if he's gonna rally.

scott said...

Chicago jury: Caterpillar Inc. must pay $74 million for stealing trade secrets

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) -NYSE
68.15 Up 2.91(4.46%) 12:37PM EST - NYSE Real Time Price

????

Christian Gustafson said...

2048 SPX would be the .618 retrace of the swoon after FOMC, if you're still trying to eyeball a short-term bearish impulsive count.

Should we get over that level, of course, we will most likely keep heading up.

Christian Gustafson said...

This is a decent rally, but even it has not yet had the USDJPY turbo-boost we have grown to expect.

But ... look at the thin little ledge the Yen is on lately.

The Yen breaking down out of this wedge will power us to the final index highs, IMO. USDJPY 126 or higher?

scott said...

lower highs a rally does not make!

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=D&st=2015-05-23&en=today&id=p92468752800&a=417399411

Let the grinching begin!

the tears will roll as the tree burst into flames and Santa tans himself in florida.

there is nothing that will keep this from falling into the 75 day cycle low.

T.Berry said...

loving the new look santa! dow's up over 400++ since he shaved : )

scott said...

there is no confirmation of a CIT until 2110 is cracked

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&st=2015-06-25&en=today&id=p81683993368&a=406333442

2058 is the end of this Department Store Fake Beard Santa Rally.

Cleaned up the Vol Osc chart so the bear T and the 75 cycle is clear

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYUD&p=D&st=2015-08-26&en=2015-12-23&id=p74174950317&a=367854604

scott said...

T Berry - we are still down 3.7% from the May high and still 54 points away from an CIT.

As far as I can tell, On Oct 30th CG said 2135 was a certainty by Nov 9th. That target and that date has wobbled like a jelly fish.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2bOwspZ2Ajc/VjOEg9J7efI/AAAAAAAAHBI/rlzWbDEIkeI/s1600/SPX%2BEOY%2B2015.png

So enjoy your 400 dow point that is most CAT being juiced by the PPT.

It will evaporate faster that CG's revised EW projections!

PS - CG's Oct 21 chart had it more correct I think.

scott said...

remember that the close on January 2, 2015 was 2058! What a bull! Watch the fade lead to lemming base jumping!

Hugh Jazole said...

You're right Scott, looks like it's going to roll over later in the day. I'm still amazed that seasoned traders seem to be completely ignorant about how oil affects the market. They think if oil goes up, the market follows. This is only true if the rise is orderly! Oil up 4% and the market up 1 is not sustainable for anything longer than a day or two.

T.Berry said...

scott, secular bull mkts don't necessarily go up every year. after all the s&P has more than tripled in last 6 years. not worried we are only up a few pts this year as i'm in for the long haul and cost average in. that wins 100% of the time. in 10 yrs the mkt will be up sub from where it is today.

liking the clean santa now up 3% in 3 days. elves got extra vaca time. lol


merry x-mas to all : )

Hugh Jazole said...

WTF?

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&t=&a=&w=&v=i



scott said...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TRIN&p=D&st=2015-07-03&en=today&id=p35223687318&a=424120491

T.Berry - no offense man, but what you know about the term "secular" could fill a thimble.

And as for 3% Santa rally , really? you call that a rally out of sideways hell?
The season failed and failed badly - now every "expert" like you will be left talking about the January Effect. One meme to another useless meme. You are a highly conditioned slave my man.

This absentee Santa was supposed to blast the markets to NEW HIGHS IMMEDIATELY after the FED praised the recovery and laid 25 basis points on us. HA!

So I think by ANY METRIC this Santa is a fraud and the real on is the one I saw in Florida, shaved, tanned and losing weight. His stretch marks are a bummer but otherwise a new man not prone to irrational exuberance!

Trin is forecasting a good drop here. Maybe even a FLASH CRASH below August...

Happy New Year to all the conditioned brainwashed minions of the state apparatchik!

scott said...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VXV%3A%24VIX&p=D&st=2015-09-17&en=today&id=p53410624436&a=429622149

As this thing drops again I will post the confirming data I've been using and posting ALL ALONG...

scott said...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYA&p=M&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p89499902460&a=429584544

NYA is and has been in a "bear market". This chart obviates any hope of "new highs".

scott said...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XVG&p=M&st=1994-01-01&en=today&id=p40652767765&a=402006344

Christian Gustafson said...

Do be careful here, Scott. The possibility of a blow-off finale move up here is always lurking.

If the Yen breaks down from its delicate perch here, that would do it.

It could easily pop us to new (final?) highs, as a pure mechanism of the carry-trade, regardless of the Fed, any economic numbers, other fundamentals, or your feelings.

A new high would wipe a lot of really bad E-W counts off the board as well, and give us a proper starting place for REAL impulse waves lower.

My target is still a round-trip 1074 SPX into the June FOMC, Scott. Yellen will then announce ZIRP or possibly even NIRP!

One more ATH next week (1/6?) would set the table. Just one more.

scott said...

yen is no help to a blow off and it seems there is just one after another rationalization...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XJY&p=D&st=2015-07-17&en=today&id=p44459562394&a=438980213

serious, CG did you or did you not, along with many others, call for new highs after the Fed Fest?

I've asked you before to explain the ever changing dates, especially the Nov predictions AFTER THE FED! lol - I'm not the one operating on feelings here.

Now you offer ONE MORE DATE of 1/6! When will you admit defeat? LOL

The VIX repeating sell signals and basing cannot be avoided.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&st=2015-10-22&en=today&id=p72678577028&a=428878359

Christian Gustafson said...

Scott, I'm all about the Jan wk5 SPY puts.

I just think I'll get a much better entry on them 70 SPX handles up from here than I will today.

scott said...

CG, you still haven't explained your changing dates for the new high

seasonality should have baked in at least a 9% move bottom to top in December and it couldn't even muster a mere 3.5% from the 1993 low. Net gains are completely a-historical with a loss for the month of about 72 basis points.

Very non-Santa and very not positive.

I don't get your methodology on the new high calls that keep changing.

scott said...

spx now down 139 basis points for the month of the Santa Rally! lol

only 2.9% from bottom to top - Santa y has thou forsaken America!

scott said...

2058 is the gatekeepers propaganda today...

the PROTECTORS of the myths are impotent magics

Hugh Jazole said...

Oil up 3% market up .25, fun times ahead!

T.Berry said...

s&p only 3.5% from ath. 2060 will look mighty cheap in 5-10 yrs. : )

happy new year to all

Sarah Bell said...

T.Berry did your Mother drop you on your head as a young child?

Hugh Jazole said...

@ Sarah, LOL!

Bicycle said...

In all seriousness, this was the year that nearly everyone was wrong about the outcome. And we were wrong because aside from one exciting washout in the late summer, it was basically a flat year... and predicting a flat year is boring.

Lots were predicting huge crashes. Heck, I even nuked my own blog multiple times in frustration over it.

Yet we also had the bulls calling for massive new highs on little other than it was a year ending in a 5.

Many claimed QE would be reinstated--it wasn't.

We predicted rate increases all year long, and finally got one... at the 11th hour. Others predicted no rate increases... ever again.

To those who simply traded the waves and made well, and those who were able to spend another year preparing and strengthening their families... congrats.

May your 2016 be as exciting as your predictions! One thing is for certain... I have no idea what the hell will happen...

Bicycle said...

...but it sure is fun trying to predict it.